Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ: TSLA) is back at the center of the market conversation on December 16, 2025, after a fresh burst of optimism around the company’s autonomous-driving ambitions pushed shares higher. Tesla stock was trading around $475, up roughly 3.5%, and sitting near the top of its 52‑week range. [1]
The catalyst isn’t a new Model Y refresh or a surprise earnings beat. It’s a classic Tesla storyline: autonomy progress + big valuation arguments + very loud disagreement among analysts about what it all should be worth.
Below is what’s driving TSLA today, what major forecasts are saying, and what investors are watching next.
What’s happening with Tesla stock today
Tesla shares climbed after CEO Elon Musk confirmed that Tesla is testing robotaxis in Austin without in‑car safety monitors, a meaningful step in the company’s drive toward fully driverless ride‑hailing. Reuters reported the stock jumped as much as about 4.9% on the news in the prior session, reaching levels near a one‑year high. [2]
As of December 16, TSLA’s trading level around $475 places it close to the upper end of its 52‑week band (roughly $214 to $489, depending on the data source), a reminder of how quickly sentiment can swing when Tesla’s autonomy narrative heats up. [3]
The big catalyst: Tesla robotaxis spotted without safety monitors
The story powering TSLA right now is simple: the “robotaxi future” just looked a bit less hypothetical.
- Videos and sightings showed Tesla robotaxis operating without safety monitors on public roads in Austin, according to The Verge. [4]
- Musk then confirmed autonomous testing was underway. [5]
- TechCrunch and other outlets framed the move as a step closer to a true commercial robotaxi service—something Tesla has promised (and repeatedly delayed) for years. [6]
Reuters notes Tesla’s valuation remains heavily influenced by investor expectations for autonomy and robotics, even though most of its current revenue still comes from selling electric vehicles. [7]
The competitive backdrop: Waymo is already scaling
A key reason this Tesla update matters to markets is that autonomy is no longer a science-fair project. It’s a competitive business.
- Reuters reported Waymo is already operating about 2,500 commercial robotaxis, delivering roughly 450,000 paid rides per week across major U.S. cities. [8]
- The Verge reported Waymo surpassed 14 million paid rides in 2025 and is planning expansion—while also noting Tesla has not published comparable safety data validating its system at scale. [9]
In other words: Tesla is showing progress, but the bar for “winning” is getting higher—and more measurable.
Analyst forecasts and price targets: from “$300 fair value” to “$3 trillion vision”
Tesla is one of the few mega-cap stocks where the same set of facts can produce forecasts that differ by multiples, not percentages. Today’s news cycle shows that range in full.
The bull case: Wedbush sees a path toward $3 trillion
One of Tesla’s most prominent bulls, Wedbush analyst Dan Ives, is driving today’s optimism in many market discussions. MarketWatch reported Ives suggested Tesla could reach a $3 trillion valuation by the end of 2026, with a base price target around $600 per share tied to autonomy, AI, and robotics upside. [10]
Barron’s similarly highlighted the idea that 2026 could be pivotal as Tesla pushes further into robotaxis and AI robotics, while emphasizing how much of the current stock story is tied to that shift. [11]
The cautious case: Goldman stays Neutral as profitability questions loom
Not everyone is buying the “straight line from testing videos to massive robotaxi profits” narrative.
An Investing.com report on a Goldman Sachs note said the firm views the removal of safety monitors as evidence of progress—but emphasized that the key question is how quickly Tesla can scale and what profitability looks like under competition, maintaining a Neutral stance. [12]
The valuation pushback: Morningstar keeps a $300 fair value estimate
Morningstar struck a more skeptical tone even while acknowledging the robotaxi milestone. In its December 16 commentary, Morningstar said it maintains a $300 fair value estimate for Tesla and argued the market may be assigning too high a valuation to the robotaxi opportunity (at least at this stage). [13]
A model-based bear view: Trefis floats “Tesla stock to $330?”
Adding to the debate, Trefis published an analysis on December 16 suggesting Tesla’s valuation is “very high” and argued that a pullback toward $330 per share “may not be out of reach,” framing TSLA as “unattractive” under its multi-factor assessment. [14]
The “very Tesla” range: Wall Street is split
Barron’s summed up the uncertainty well: analysts are divided, with a wide dispersion in targets and a lower-than-average share of “Buy” ratings versus broader market norms. [15]
That dispersion matters because it signals the market isn’t debating “next quarter’s deliveries” nearly as much as it’s debating what business Tesla actually becomes over the next few years.
Cathie Wood and ARK sold some Tesla shares—without turning bearish
Another headline in the Tesla stock ecosystem: ARK Invest trimmed Tesla shares.
Barron’s reported that Cathie Wood’s ARK funds sold a relatively small number of Tesla shares (described as routine portfolio management), while Tesla remains a top holding. Wood continues to project a long-term Tesla price target of $2,600 by 2029, largely tied to robotaxi expectations. [16]
For TSLA watchers, this functions less like “big institutional panic” and more like a reminder that even the most committed bulls rebalance when a stock rips.
Key risks behind today’s rally: regulation, safety scrutiny, and the “proof gap”
When Tesla stock rallies on autonomy headlines, the immediate counterweight is always the same: regulators and real-world safety performance.
NHTSA investigation into Tesla Full Self-Driving
The U.S. National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) opened a probe into about 2.88 million Tesla vehicles equipped with Full Self-Driving software over reports involving potential traffic-law violations and incidents. [17]
An NHTSA ODI (Office of Defects Investigation) resume for Investigation PE25012 lists an estimated population of 2,882,566 vehicles, describing concerns that include proceeding through red traffic signals and driving against the proper direction of travel, alongside a failure summary tallying reported incidents and injuries. [18]
This matters because robotaxi scale-up isn’t just a software problem—it’s also a legal and regulatory problem. If regulators tighten constraints or require corrective actions, timelines can slip and costs can rise.
Robotaxi testing scrutiny is intensifying
TechCrunch reported that removing safety monitors is likely to increase scrutiny of Tesla’s Austin testing, especially as the company moves toward offering rides without onboard staff. [19]
The Verge also noted Tesla has not released comprehensive safety data comparing its system’s performance to human driving benchmarks, even as competitors expand commercial service. [20]
For TSLA bulls, the next “trust milestone” may not be another viral video—it may be credible, scalable performance evidence and a smoother regulatory path.
Another Tesla headline today: board compensation scrutiny resurfaces
In a separate Reuters analysis, Tesla’s board compensation came under fresh attention.
Reuters reported that Tesla’s board of directors amassed more than $3 billion in stock-based compensation (over time), dwarfing peers at other major tech companies, according to an Equilar analysis for Reuters—raising governance questions around independence and incentives. [21]
This governance narrative typically doesn’t move TSLA day-to-day the way robotaxi news does, but it can matter in the background—especially for large institutions that weigh oversight risk.
Other current Tesla news: Cybertruck safety rating and Megapack momentum in Europe
While autonomy is dominating today’s market reaction, Tesla had other notable headlines in the same news window.
Cybertruck and Model 3 recognized in IIHS awards
The Insurance Institute for Highway Safety (IIHS) announced additional year-end safety award recipients on December 16, 2025. [22]
Forbes reported that Tesla’s Cybertruck and Model 3 earned safety awards in the latest IIHS testing round for 2025. [23]
Safety accolades don’t rewrite the TSLA valuation overnight, but they support Tesla’s broader brand narrative—especially as the company tries to sell vehicles while also pitching itself as an autonomy-and-AI platform.
Tesla Megapack deployments: SPIE signs a Europe framework agreement
Tesla’s energy storage business also popped up in the headlines through a European partner announcement.
SPIE announced it signed a three-year (renewable) European framework agreement with Tesla for battery energy storage system projects using Tesla Megapack solutions, covering multiple European subsidiaries and pointing to projects across several countries. [24]
Energy storage is often the “quiet” part of the Tesla story compared with robotaxis, but it’s also one of the company’s clearer non-automotive growth narratives—especially as grids add renewables and need storage to smooth volatility.
What to watch next for Tesla stock (TSLA) after today’s move
Tesla stock rallies are easy. Tesla stock staying high is harder. The next phase of the TSLA story likely hinges on whether Tesla can convert today’s autonomy excitement into measurable traction.
Here are the near-term things investors are watching:
- Scaling driverless operations: How quickly Tesla can expand beyond small tests—and whether it can do so safely and consistently. [25]
- Regulatory developments: Any movement in the NHTSA FSD investigation, or new safety requirements that shape autonomy rollouts. [26]
- Economics of robotaxis: Even bullish analysts acknowledge the difference between “it drives” and “it prints profits.” [27]
- Core vehicle demand and margins: Tesla remains, for now, largely an EV business—so deliveries, pricing, and gross margins still matter, even if the stock trades on AI optionality. Reuters has recently reported weakening sales signals in the U.S. and elsewhere in late 2025. [28]
- Next earnings timeline: Nasdaq lists an algorithm-based estimate for Tesla’s next earnings around February 4, 2026 (unconfirmed). [29]
Bottom line: Tesla stock is pricing the future—again
On December 16, 2025, Tesla stock is moving for a familiar reason: the market thinks the robotaxi timeline just got a little more real. [30]
But the debate hasn’t changed—only the volume has. Bulls see autonomy, AI, and robotics pushing Tesla toward a valuation that looks more like a platform company than an automaker. Bears (and some valuation-focused analysts) see a stock price that already assumes huge autonomy success—before the hard evidence is fully public and before the regulatory path is cleared. [31]
References
1. www.investing.com, 2. www.reuters.com, 3. www.investing.com, 4. www.theverge.com, 5. www.reuters.com, 6. techcrunch.com, 7. www.reuters.com, 8. www.reuters.com, 9. www.theverge.com, 10. www.marketwatch.com, 11. www.barrons.com, 12. www.investing.com, 13. global.morningstar.com, 14. www.trefis.com, 15. www.barrons.com, 16. www.barrons.com, 17. www.reuters.com, 18. static.nhtsa.gov, 19. techcrunch.com, 20. www.theverge.com, 21. www.reuters.com, 22. www.iihs.org, 23. www.forbes.com, 24. www.globenewswire.com, 25. www.reuters.com, 26. static.nhtsa.gov, 27. www.investing.com, 28. www.reuters.com, 29. www.nasdaq.com, 30. www.reuters.com, 31. www.marketwatch.com
