Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ: TSLA) is back in the center of the market’s attention on Monday, December 15, 2025—where almost every headline seems to pull the stock in two directions at once.
On one hand: momentum in autonomy. Reports and confirmation from Elon Musk indicate Tesla has begun testing at least some robotaxi vehicles in Austin with no safety monitor inside—a milestone for a company that has staked a large part of its valuation on self-driving and AI. [1]
On the other hand: governance and “old Tesla” fundamentals. Reuters published a detailed analysis showing Tesla directors have accumulated more than $3 billion through stock awards—renewing debates about oversight, incentives, and board independence. [2]
Meanwhile, Wall Street is still split. Some analysts are leaning hard into a robotaxi-driven future, while others point to softening vehicle demand and a valuation that leaves little room for execution missteps.
Below is what’s moving Tesla stock today, what forecasts look like heading into 2026, and what investors are watching next.
Tesla stock price today: where TSLA is trading on December 15, 2025
Tesla shares were trading around the $459 level in recent quotes, with Tesla’s market capitalization around $1.5 trillion, depending on the feed and timing. [3]
Key reference points traders are watching include:
- Day range: roughly $441–$463
- 52-week range: roughly $214–$489 [4]
- Next earnings date:January 28, 2026 (per Investing.com’s listing) [5]
Those numbers matter because Tesla’s current narrative is very “expectations-sensitive.” When a stock is priced for major future businesses (robotaxis, software, humanoid robotics), even small signals about progress—or delay—can hit sentiment fast.
The big TSLA catalyst on December 15: Tesla tests robotaxis with no safety monitor inside
The autonomy story accelerated today after a video circulated showing a Tesla Model Y operating in Austin with no one inside, followed by Elon Musk confirming that testing is underway “with no occupants in the car.” [6]
A few details investors are focusing on:
- The testing appears to be separate from customer rides—robotaxi users still saw human monitors in the passenger seat when ordering rides, according to reporting. [7]
- A robotaxi tracker cited in coverage put Tesla’s active Austin fleet at 31 vehicles, and Musk has previously discussed a goal of scaling to 500 in Austin by year-end. [8]
- Investor’s Business Daily noted uncertainty around what support systems were present (for example, remote monitoring or escort vehicles) and what exact Full Self-Driving (FSD) build was running. [9]
Why this matters for Tesla stock: the market has increasingly treated Tesla less like a cyclical automaker and more like an AI/autonomy platform with a car business attached. The phrase “no safety monitor inside” is basically a flare shot into that debate.
It also builds directly on Tesla’s earlier Austin robotaxi rollout. Reuters reported in June 2025 that Tesla deployed a small robotaxi test program carrying paying passengers in Austin—an early, limited step Musk framed as the start of the robotaxi business. [10]
The bullish interpretation: Tesla is shortening the distance between “driver assistance” and “autonomous mobility service.”
The cautious interpretation: “driverless” in the real world isn’t just a software milestone—it’s a regulatory, safety, and operational marathon.
Full Self-Driving v14: Tesla expands trials as the software narrative heats up
Another autonomy-adjacent story in circulation today: Tesla is actively promoting broader exposure to Full Self-Driving (Supervised) v14 via a trial program.
On Tesla’s own support site, the company says eligible owners can experience the latest FSD (Supervised) v14 features (including Speed Profiles and “Arrival Options”) through a complimentary trial, with eligibility tied to having software version 14.2 or later and being located in the U.S., Puerto Rico, Mexico, or Canada. [11]
At the same time, Barron’s published hands-on impressions of FSD v14, describing a noticeable step up in smoothness and capability compared with older versions—while emphasizing that it still requires human supervision and that competitors such as Waymo remain ahead in full autonomy. [12]
Barron’s also cited crowdsourced tracking indicating high miles between “critical disengagements” for certain v14 builds, but stressed that “better” is not the same thing as “solved.” [13]
For TSLA investors, the business angle is straightforward: if Tesla can convert more drivers from a free trial into paid subscriptions, that’s high-margin software revenue—and it strengthens the case that Tesla’s profit engine in the late 2020s could look less like car gross margins and more like platform economics. Barron’s noted that only a minority of U.S. Tesla owners currently pay for FSD, which is why conversion rates and retention are so important. [14]
Tesla Energy gets a Europe headline: SPIE signs a framework agreement for Megapack projects
Tesla stock is often treated as an autonomy proxy, but Tesla’s energy generation and storage segment can still deliver meaningful surprises—especially as grid operators add batteries to stabilize renewables-heavy power systems.
On December 15, SPIE (a European multi-technical services provider) announced it signed a European framework agreement with Tesla related to deployment of battery energy storage system (BESS) projects using Tesla Megapack solutions. The agreement is described as renewable with a three-year term and intended to standardize legal and operational conditions for Megapack projects installed by SPIE across Europe. [15]
SPIE says it expects to provide engineering, “balance of plant” work, connections to high- and medium-voltage networks, auxiliary systems (including safety and fire detection), and commissioning—initially covering France and positioning for expansion to other markets including Poland and Germany. [16]
This isn’t an earnings report, but it matters because it reinforces that Tesla Energy isn’t just a “side quest.” A steadier pipeline for Megapack deployments can help diversify the Tesla story beyond vehicle deliveries—at a time when the auto side is under more demand pressure.
Reuters: Tesla directors made over $3 billion from stock awards — why investors care
One of the most consequential “non-product” Tesla stories today came from Reuters, which published an analysis (prepared with compensation and governance specialist Equilar) indicating Tesla’s board earned more than $3 billion through stock awards that, at the time of grant, were unusually large compared with peers. [17]
Reuters reported figures including:
- Kimbal Musk earning nearly $1 billion since 2004 (based on appreciated value of options held or sold)
- Ira Ehrenpreis collecting $869 million since 2007
- Board chair Robyn Denholm making $650 million since 2014 [18]
The Reuters piece also reported Tesla’s board agreed to suspend director compensation starting in 2021 to settle a shareholder lawsuit alleging excessive pay, and that the average Tesla director received about $12 million in total cash-and-stock compensation between 2018 and 2020—multiples above peers in the “Magnificent Seven” comparison set. [19]
Why this matters for TSLA stock (beyond the headlines):
- Governance risk premium: Investors may price in additional legal challenges, activism, or distractions.
- Independence questions: Reuters cited governance experts arguing that extraordinary compensation can undermine board independence; Tesla responded that compensation is performance-based and tied to shareholder value creation. [20]
- Musk compensation backdrop: The Reuters analysis references how director compensation became part of broader legal scrutiny around Musk pay and board relationships—issues that can reappear as catalysts depending on court actions and shareholder votes. [21]
In plain English: even the most autonomy-bullish investor still needs a board that can credibly oversee the transition from carmaker to mobility/AI platform without blowing up trust along the way.
Tesla stock forecast: what Wall Street expects heading into 2026
If you’re looking for a single consensus on Tesla’s outlook, you won’t find one—because analysts are effectively valuing two different companies:
- Tesla the automaker (deliveries, pricing, margins, competition), and
- Tesla the autonomy/software platform (robotaxi network, FSD take-rate, AI capabilities)
The consensus view: “Hold,” with price targets below current trading levels
MarketBeat’s analyst aggregation lists Tesla with a consensus rating of Hold based on 44 analysts, with an average 12-month price target around $399 (below current levels in the mid-$400s). [22]
It also shows how divided coverage is: a meaningful block of buys alongside a meaningful block of sells—unusual for a mega-cap. [23]
Investing.com similarly shows a “neutral” analyst picture, listing an average target in the low-$390s with a high estimate of $600 and a low estimate of $120. [24]
The bull case (today’s loudest version): “Monster year” in 2026
Wedbush analyst Dan Ives amplified the bullish narrative today, reiterating an Outperform rating and a $600 price target, arguing that 2026 is where the robotaxi and robotics chapter could start to reshape Tesla’s growth profile. [25]
According to Investing.com’s summary of Wedbush’s view, Ives expects:
- faster robotaxi rollout across the U.S. in 2026
- “Cybercab” volume production starting around April or May
- robotaxi expansion to 30+ U.S. cities in 2026 (as framed in the article) [26]
This outlook also leans on the idea that federal regulatory conditions could become less restrictive—an assumption that matters hugely, because regulation can either slow scaling… or accelerate it. [27]
High-profile long-term optimism: Cathie Wood stays bullish, trims slightly
Barron’s reported that ARK Invest sold a relatively small number of Tesla shares (in the context of the ETFs’ holdings), while Tesla remained the largest position in key ARK funds. It also highlighted Wood’s long-term TSLA forecast, centered on a massive future robotaxi opportunity. [28]
The “bear case” that refuses to die: vehicle demand, competition, and the valuation gap
Even on a day dominated by autonomy, investors are still cross-checking the narrative against vehicle demand—and recent data points have been uncomfortable.
In a December 11 Reuters exclusive citing Cox Automotive estimates, Tesla’s U.S. sales fell nearly 23% year-over-year in November to about 39,800 vehicles, marking the lowest level since January 2022. Reuters also reported broader U.S. EV sales fell more than 41% in November after the Trump administration ended $7,500 federal tax credits at the end of September—though Tesla’s market share rose sharply in that weaker market. [29]
That sets up a tension that’s now central to TSLA:
- If autonomy scales quickly, the market may forgive weak auto volume because software and mobility revenue could dominate the valuation story.
- If autonomy takes longer (or faces safety/regulatory setbacks), investors may refocus on the “core” business—where price competition, aging models, and demand sensitivity matter a lot more.
Barron’s framed that split directly, noting Tesla’s stock strength even amid a second consecutive annual vehicle sales decline, with investors increasingly emphasizing robotaxis and AI-trained robotics as the next growth engine. [30]
What TSLA investors are watching next
Tesla stock’s near-term direction will likely hinge on whether the company can keep turning autonomy headlines into measurable, de-risked progress.
The market’s watchlist now includes:
- Robotaxi operations in Austin: evidence of scaling safely beyond limited testing, and whether removing in-car monitors expands beyond a handful of vehicles. [31]
- FSD v14 trial conversion: whether broader exposure translates into paid adoption, and whether performance improvements continue without high-profile incidents. [32]
- Governance and legal overhang: whether today’s Reuters reporting adds momentum to shareholder scrutiny around board structure, compensation, and oversight. [33]
- Energy storage traction: whether deals like SPIE’s framework agreement become a pattern that expands Tesla Energy’s contribution and narrative weight. [34]
- January earnings: Tesla’s next scheduled report date is January 28, 2026, which may reset the conversation on margins, demand, and 2026 guidance. [35]
Bottom line
Tesla stock on December 15, 2025 looks like a live experiment in how markets price the future.
Today’s news cycle captured the whole TSLA paradox in one frame:
robotaxi testing appears to be getting bolder, Tesla is pushing FSD v14 into more drivers’ hands, and the energy business is landing credible Europe-adjacent headlines—yet governance scrutiny is rising and the car business is still navigating demand headwinds. [36]
For investors, the real question isn’t whether Tesla can generate headlines. It’s whether the company can convert those headlines into scalable, regulated, profitable operations—fast enough to justify a valuation that already assumes a lot of that future has arrived.
References
1. www.businessinsider.com, 2. www.reuters.com, 3. www.investing.com, 4. www.investing.com, 5. www.investing.com, 6. www.businessinsider.com, 7. www.businessinsider.com, 8. www.businessinsider.com, 9. www.investors.com, 10. www.reuters.com, 11. www.tesla.com, 12. www.barrons.com, 13. www.barrons.com, 14. www.barrons.com, 15. www.spie.com, 16. www.spie.com, 17. www.reuters.com, 18. www.reuters.com, 19. www.reuters.com, 20. www.reuters.com, 21. www.reuters.com, 22. www.marketbeat.com, 23. www.marketbeat.com, 24. www.investing.com, 25. www.investing.com, 26. www.investing.com, 27. www.investing.com, 28. www.barrons.com, 29. www.reuters.com, 30. www.barrons.com, 31. www.businessinsider.com, 32. www.tesla.com, 33. www.reuters.com, 34. www.spie.com, 35. www.investing.com, 36. www.businessinsider.com
