Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) closed Tuesday, December 9, 2025 at $445.17, up about 1.3% on the day, before slipping fractionally in after‑hours trading as investors weighed fresh AI/robotics headlines against looming Federal Reserve risk. [1]
Below is a detailed look at what actually moved TSLA after the bell – and the key things traders and longer‑term investors may want to know heading into the U.S. market open on Wednesday, December 10, 2025.
1. How Tesla Traded on December 9 – and After the Bell
- Regular session:
- After-hours session:
- Context vs. the broader market:
- U.S. indices drifted near record territory ahead of the December 9–10 Federal Reserve meeting, with markets largely in “wait and see” mode on a widely expected 25‑basis‑point rate cut and updated projections. [6]
In other words, Tesla finished Tuesday higher but calm, with after‑hours action suggesting investors are processing new information rather than panicking – a notable change from the name’s usual high‑beta reputation.
2. The Big Tesla Headlines Driving TSLA on December 9
2.1 Piper Sandler: FSD “Very Close” to Unsupervised – Overweight, $500 Target
The single most market‑moving Tesla story on Tuesday came from Piper Sandler.
- Analyst Alexander Potter reiterated an Overweight rating and $500 price target on TSLA. [7]
- In a discussion with the creator of the FSD Community Tracker, Potter highlighted a dramatic jump in the key metric “miles to critical disengagement” after the rollout of FSD v14.1.x:
- Around 441 miles between critical disengagements previously…
- …to over 9,200 miles after v14.1.x – more than a 20x improvement, the strongest sequential gain in four years of data. [8]
- Potter’s team also cited data from Austin, suggesting FSD‑equipped cars could potentially average tens of thousands of miles between crashes based on reported incidents, while stressing that not every “critical disengagement” would actually have resulted in an accident. [9]
He did, however, note that early data on FSD v14.2.x looks weaker (around 1,500 miles per disengagement) and might partially reflect noise or learning‑curve effects, reinforcing that Tesla’s autonomy story is still a work in progress. [10]
Why it mattered for the stock:
Benzinga specifically linked Tuesday’s TSLA uptick to this Piper Sandler FSD update, noting that Tesla shares were up around 1.3% intraday as investors focused on improved autonomy metrics despite lingering concerns around valuation and EV demand. [11]
2.2 RBC: Backing Tesla’s Humanoid Robot Strategy – $500 Price Target
While the Optimus robot meme‑fest raged on (more on that below), RBC Capital Markets doubled down on Tesla’s robot ambitions:
- RBC reiterated an “Outperform” rating on TSLA and a $500 price target, explicitly framing Tesla as a leading contender in the humanoid robot “race.” [12]
- Analyst Tom Narayan estimates:
- A $400 billion humanoid robot market by 2050.
- Discounting back, he values Tesla’s robot business at about $640 billion today – more than one‑third of the implied value behind RBC’s target. [13]
RBC also stresses that Tesla intends to deploy Optimus across manufacturing, hospitality, and consumer markets, while deliberately excluding military and police applications, which could matter for regulatory and ESG‑sensitive funds. [14]
Takeaway: As some headlines mock Optimus’ stumbles, major sell‑side firms are still building significant long‑term value into Tesla’s robotics story.
2.3 Optimus Robot Collapse Goes Viral – Optics vs. Reality
On the other side of the narrative, Tesla’s Optimus robot endured a rough PR day:
- At a Tesla “Autopilot technology and Optimus” event in Miami, one Optimus unit was filmed clutching its “head,” staggering, and then collapsing flat on its back behind a table of water bottles. [15]
- Coverage from outlets such as VICE and others argued the episode was likely the result of a teleoperator removing a VR headset improperly, reinforcing that much of Tesla’s robotics demos still rely on teleoperation rather than full autonomy. [16]
While largely a sentiment and optics story, the clip fed into a broader market debate:
- Bulls: Treat the mishap as a normal part of early‑stage robotics, overshadowed by FSD and AI progress.
- Bears: See it as evidence that Tesla’s humanoid timeline and marketing may be over‑promising compared with actual capabilities.
This tension – viral skepticism vs. institutional optimism – is likely to remain in focus at the open.
2.4 2025 Holiday Update (2025.44.25.1): Software, Engagement and Data
Tesla also quietly rolled out its big 2025 Holiday software update, version 2025.44.25.1, to customer cars:
- New features highlighted across owner‑tracking sites include:
- “Grok with Navigation Commands (Beta)” – deeper integration of Tesla’s AI assistant into navigation. [17]
- Tesla Photobooth and other infotainment tweaks aimed at keeping drivers and passengers engaged in‑car. [18]
- Dog Mode Live Activity on iOS, showing cabin temperature and periodic snapshots in the Tesla app. [19]
- An undocumented dashcam storage indicator and a new “Charging Passport” that gamifies Supercharging usage with progress‑style tracking. [20]
Early reports suggest the update is rolling out first to vehicles with newer AMD‑based hardware, with some features potentially limited on older platforms. [21]
For investors, the relevance is subtle but real: these updates tighten Tesla’s software ecosystem, add reasons for owners to stay within the brand, and generate more real‑world driving data that feeds directly into FSD and robotics training loops.
3. Wall Street’s TSLA View After Tuesday’s Close
3.1 A Split Tape: Morgan Stanley vs. Piper vs. RBC
The last 48 hours have showcased just how polarized TSLA coverage is:
- Morgan Stanley (Dec. 8):
- Downgraded Tesla from “Overweight/Buy” to “Equal Weight/Hold” for the first time in about two years.
- Lifted its price target modestly from $410 to $425, which still implies modest downside from current levels. [22]
- Cited a tougher “EV winter” through 2026, with forecasts for U.S. EV sales to fall ~20% year‑over‑year as tax credits expire and affordability issues bite. [23]
- Piper Sandler (Dec. 9):
- Reiterated Overweight, $500 PT on the back of FSD performance metrics and new disengagement data. [24]
- RBC (Dec. 9):
- Reiterated Outperform, building more than a third of its valuation case on humanoid robots and long‑dated AI optionality. [25]
Net result: Tuesday’s action confirmed TSLA is trading as much on AI/robotics sentiment as on EV fundamentals.
3.2 Consensus Targets: Tesla Trades Above the Average Wall Street View
Despite bullish high‑profile calls, broader consensus remains more cautious:
- 24/7 Wall St. reports a median 12‑month Wall Street target of about $383.54, implying double‑digit downside from around current levels, with 34 analysts split roughly into 12 Buys, 12 Holds and 10 Sells. [26]
- A GuruFocus survey of 44 analysts shows:
- Average target: $375.71
- High: $600
- Low: $19.05
- Average recommendation score around 2.7 on a 1–5 scale (≈ “Hold”). [27]
- MarketBeat’s compilation similarly pegs the consensus rating as Hold, with a $399.33 average price target and a rating distribution of 1 Strong Buy, 20 Buys, 14 Holds and 9 Sells. [28]
In short, Tesla now trades at a premium to the average analyst target, with the Street generally acknowledging the long‑term AI/robotics upside but doubting that today’s price fully reflects near‑term EV and margin risks.
3.3 Institutional Positioning: State Street and Others
Institutional ownership remains high but not unanimously bullish:
- State Street Corp trimmed its stake by about 0.3% in Q2 but still owns 113.4 million shares, roughly 3.5% of Tesla’s float, making TSLA its 9th‑largest position (about 1.4% of State Street’s portfolio). [29]
- MarketBeat notes that institutional investors own about 66% of Tesla’s stock and that insiders still hold close to 20%. Recent insider sales include disposals by Director James Murdoch and SVP Xiaotong Zhu at price levels in the low‑ to mid‑$400s. [30]
This mix – high but actively managed institutional exposure plus steady insider selling – reinforces the idea that big holders see Tesla as a core but volatile growth position rather than a low‑maintenance compounder.
4. Fundamentals to Watch Before the December 10, 2025 Open
4.1 The Fed Decision Looms Over Every Growth Stock
The FOMC meeting on December 9–10 is arguably the single biggest macro driver for TSLA into Wednesday’s session:
- The Federal Reserve is widely expected to deliver its third 25‑bp rate cut of 2025, with markets laser‑focused on the new dot plot and Chair Powell’s press conference tone. [31]
- For richly valued growth names like Tesla, real yields, rate‑cut expectations, and any hints about the 2026 path can move multiples even in the absence of company‑specific news.
If the Fed sounds more dovish than expected, it could support Tesla’s elevated AI/robotics premium. A hawkish or cautious message, especially around inflation or data uncertainty, could trigger a valuation reset across high‑multiple tech.
4.2 2025 Deliveries, Q4 Setup and the “EV Winter”
Sell‑side and independent research on Tuesday also sharpened the focus on Tesla’s core auto business:
- Barclays and other forecasters see Tesla’s 2025 deliveries around 1.95 million units, below a Bloomberg consensus closer to 2.08 million and below earlier company‑level ambitions. [32]
- A detailed piece from TECHi highlights Q4 2025 delivery expectations in a band of roughly 507,000–512,000 vehicles, implying just over 2 million deliveries for the year if achieved. [33]
- Morgan Stanley, meanwhile, warns of a prolonged “EV winter” with U.S. EV sales potentially falling around 20% in 2026, partly due to the expiration of the $7,500 federal EV tax credit and affordability pressures. [34]
The implication for Wednesday’s open:
- Any new datapoints on order trends, wait times, or regional pricing (particularly in the U.S., Europe and China) could quickly shift sentiment.
- Traders will be thinking in terms of “Can Tesla hit ~2M+ deliveries and protect margins in 2025?” vs. the macro EV slowdown narrative.
4.3 2025 Earnings and Margin Story
From a fundamental standpoint, 24/7 Wall St. emphasized how Q3 2025 results underlined Tesla’s balancing act:
- Revenue: $28.1 billion, up about 12% year‑over‑year.
- EPS: $0.50, missing consensus of $0.54.
- Net income: down ~37% YoY to roughly $1.37 billion, as discounts, incentives and incremental AI/robotics spending weighed on margins. [35]
Analysts 24/7 compiled expect around 17.5% revenue growth to $117.2 billion in 2025, with deliveries growth but margin pressure remaining a key debate. [36]
Heading into the open, traders are likely to:
- Reward clear evidence of operating leverage (software, FSD subscriptions, energy storage margins), and
- Punish any sign that Tesla is sacrificing profitability faster than expected to defend market share or fund moonshot projects.
4.4 Tesla as an AI and Robotics Stock – Deutsche Bank & Others
A MarketWatch‑syndicated note from Deutsche Bank – widely shared on Tuesday – frames Tesla less as a pure EV name and more as a 2026 AI/robotics play: [37]
- They see EV unit sales falling for a second straight year, with 2025 sales estimated around 1.66 million vs. 1.82 million previously, but
- Argue that investors may increasingly focus on:
- Robotaxi expansion – a ride‑hailing service currently live in Austin and the Bay Area, with plans to expand to roughly seven cities and grow the fleet from about 152 to over 2,500 vehicles by mid‑2026. [38]
- The Optimus humanoid robot as a long‑term margin and TAM driver.
- The broader AI software platform, including FSD and potential licensing or subscription‑based revenue.
For Wednesday’s open, this framing matters: if the market is in a “hunt for AI leaders” mood after the Fed, Tesla can trade more like an AI stock than a tired automaker – and vice versa.
5. Key Things to Watch Before the December 10 Open
Putting it all together, here’s a quick pre‑open checklist for TSLA watchers:
- Rate‑sensitive sentiment
- How are Nasdaq futures trading into the Fed decision? Growth‑heavy, high‑multiple names like Tesla will feel any sharp move in real yields and rate‑cut expectations almost instantly. [39]
- Any new FSD or safety headlines
- Further details, regulatory commentary, or third‑party data on FSD v14.x performance could either reinforce Piper Sandler’s bullish view or stoke concerns about reliability. [40]
- Follow‑through on the Optimus viral clip
- If the robot collapse story continues to trend overnight, it could weigh on the “Tesla = robotics leader” narrative – especially if competitors use it for contrast. [41]
- Institutional and options positioning
- With Tesla near the top of many “most active options” and institutional favorites lists, any pre‑open moves in major funds or sharp changes in open interest around popular strikes can amplify volatility. [42]
- Fresh analyst notes
- After Monday’s Morgan Stanley downgrade and Tuesday’s Piper/RBC reaffirmations, more firms may update their TSLA views in light of:
- The Fed decision,
- Holiday update user feedback, and
- New FSD data. [43]
- After Monday’s Morgan Stanley downgrade and Tuesday’s Piper/RBC reaffirmations, more firms may update their TSLA views in light of:
6. Bottom Line: What TSLA Traders and Investors Should Take Away
- Price action:
Tesla closed Tuesday modestly higher and barely budged after hours, a sign that bullish FSD news and AI optimism are currently offsetting EV‑demand worries and robotics missteps rather than overwhelming them. [44] - Narrative tug‑of‑war:
- Bulls point to 20x FSD performance improvements, strong AI positioning, a long runway for robotaxis and Optimus, and big houses like Piper and RBC sticking with $500 targets. [45]
- Bears highlight the Morgan Stanley downgrade, a likely EV slowdown, viral footage showing Optimus far from autonomy, and the fact that TSLA trades above the average broker price target. [46]
- Macro wildcard:
With the Fed poised to deliver a crucial December rate decision and forward guidance today, macro could dominate micro at Wednesday’s open. A dovish surprise may give Tesla’s high‑multiple AI story more oxygen; a hawkish tilt could compress valuations across the complex. [47]
As always, none of this is a prediction of where TSLA will trade tomorrow – it’s a map of the forces lining up behind the next move. If you’re trading or investing around the open, consider:
- Your time horizon (minutes vs. years),
- Your tolerance for volatility, and
- Whether you’re betting on Tesla primarily as an EV manufacturer, an AI/robotics platform, or some blend of the two.
References
1. uk.finance.yahoo.com, 2. uk.finance.yahoo.com, 3. www.investing.com, 4. public.com, 5. public.com, 6. www.federalreserve.gov, 7. www.gurufocus.com, 8. www.benzinga.com, 9. www.benzinga.com, 10. www.benzinga.com, 11. www.benzinga.com, 12. www.insidermonkey.com, 13. www.insidermonkey.com, 14. www.insidermonkey.com, 15. www.vice.com, 16. www.vice.com, 17. www.notateslaapp.com, 18. www.notateslaapp.com, 19. www.notateslaapp.com, 20. www.teslarati.com, 21. driveteslacanada.ca, 22. www.businessinsider.com, 23. www.businessinsider.com, 24. www.gurufocus.com, 25. www.insidermonkey.com, 26. 247wallst.com, 27. www.gurufocus.com, 28. www.marketbeat.com, 29. www.marketbeat.com, 30. www.marketbeat.com, 31. www.federalreserve.gov, 32. 247wallst.com, 33. www.techi.com, 34. www.businessinsider.com, 35. 247wallst.com, 36. 247wallst.com, 37. www.marketwatch.com, 38. www.marketwatch.com, 39. www.investing.com, 40. www.benzinga.com, 41. www.vice.com, 42. www.marketbeat.com, 43. www.businessinsider.com, 44. uk.finance.yahoo.com, 45. www.benzinga.com, 46. www.businessinsider.com, 47. www.federalreserve.gov
