Texas Instruments stock jumps nearly 10% after upbeat forecast; what TXN investors watch next

New York, January 28, 2026, 18:47 EST — After-hours

• TXN surged roughly 10%, closing at $216.17 in after-hours, following a volatile session.
• Texas Instruments projected first-quarter revenue and profit ranges that exceed Wall Street estimates at the midpoint.
• The company reported a 70% surge in data-center revenue for the December quarter and intends to separate that end-market in its reporting.

Texas Instruments shares surged close to 10% Wednesday, closing the regular session between $203.16 and $217.37. After hours, the stock held onto gains, last rising 9.95% to $216.17, following a first-quarter forecast that beat Wall Street estimates.

Texas Instruments matters now as a bellwether for the slow-and-steady segment of semiconductors — the power and signal chips tied to industrial and auto sectors. Investors have been hunting for signs that the prolonged inventory correction is finally easing. The company’s guidance arrived just as the market seeks to gauge the next phase of the cycle.

This highlights just how far the AI data-center surge is spreading. Graphics chips grab the headlines, but power management and signal conversion handle the behind-the-scenes work. Texas Instruments insists the plumbing is under heavier strain.

Texas Instruments forecasted first-quarter revenue between $4.32 billion and $4.68 billion, with earnings per share ranging from $1.22 to $1.48. In the fourth quarter, the company posted $4.42 billion in revenue, net income of $1.16 billion, and EPS of $1.27. The EPS figure included a 6-cent hit not accounted for in its initial guidance. CEO Haviv Ilan commented, “Revenue decreased 7% sequentially and increased 10% from the same quarter a year ago.” SEC

On Tuesday’s post-earnings call, Ilan revealed Texas Instruments will start breaking out sales to the data-center segment, after data-center revenue surged 70% in the December quarter and accounted for 9% of total sales in 2025. Summit Insights analyst Kinngai Chan highlighted a “general industrial recovery,” while Stifel’s Tore Svanberg said the “inventory correction … [is] essentially complete,” paving the way for a stronger 2026. TI’s Q1 guidance sits against LSEG estimates of $4.42 billion in revenue and $1.26 per share in profit. Reuters

MarketWatch flagged another key point for investors: Texas Instruments expects sequential revenue growth from Q4 to Q1, a move the company says hasn’t occurred in years. Cantor Fitzgerald’s Matthew Prisco called the outlook “surprisingly positive,” although some analysts caution the analog sector’s rebound still feels like it’s “stuck in first gear.” MarketWatch

TXN’s rally helped drive a chip sector-led boost for U.S. stocks after the Federal Reserve kept rates steady at 3.5%–3.75%, shifting investor focus back to earnings and AI investment strategies. Alongside TXN, Nvidia, Micron, and Intel also gained as traders assessed if big tech’s capital expenditures will pay off.

Risks remain. Reuters highlighted worries that a global memory-chip crunch could hit smartphone and PC sales—key markets for Texas Instruments—and pointed to geopolitical tension and tariff risks tied to the company’s U.S.-centered manufacturing. On the flip side, Morgan Stanley argued a supply squeeze for TI seems unlikely, since factory utilization rates are low worldwide. Federated Hermes portfolio manager Louise Dudley added that “buyers and customers … are reporting that conditions are improving and that they are expanding their growth plans.” Reuters

For Texas Instruments, the focus shifts from a single quarter to the bigger picture: the mix of AI-driven data-center demand versus a wider industrial slowdown. Investors will eye peers like Analog Devices for clues on orders and pricing, but ultimately, they’re waiting on TI’s own update to clarify the narrative.

The upcoming major event is the company’s next quarterly earnings report, which should shed more light on that new data-center segment and whether the first-quarter guidance stays intact. According to Investing.com, the next earnings release is scheduled for April 28, 2026.