Texas Instruments Incorporated (NASDAQ: TXN) is ending the week with investors balancing two competing narratives: a long-term U.S. manufacturing expansion story that just hit a major milestone, and a near-term margin-and-inventory debate that’s fueling sharp disagreements among analysts.
As of Dec. 19, 2025, TXN shares are trading around $178 (up roughly 1% on the session in the latest quote available).
Below is a full roundup of the most relevant news, forecasts, and analyst commentary available on Dec. 19, 2025, plus what they may mean for the stock as 2026 approaches.
What’s moving Texas Instruments stock on Dec. 19, 2025
The most visible “day-of” catalyst is a fresh analyst update: Truist Securities kept a Hold rating while raising its price target to $195 (from $175), implying moderate upside from recent levels. [1]
That target hike lands just days after the stock absorbed a much more negative call (covered below), and it helps explain why TXN is showing resilience despite a noisy headline environment.
Just as important for investors skimming the tape: TXN is not trading in isolation right now. The analog/industrial semiconductor space continues to be treated as a “late-cycle recovery” trade—benefiting when industrial and automotive demand improves, but lagging the parts of semiconductors most directly tied to hyperscaler AI buildouts.
The big fundamental headline: TI’s new Sherman, Texas 300mm fab has begun production
Texas Instruments announced this week that it has started production at SM1, its new 300mm semiconductor wafer fabrication plant in Sherman, Texas—the first fab at TI’s Sherman “mega-site.” [2]
Why this matters to the TXN stock story:
- Scale and control of supply are central to TI’s strategy. The company has emphasized owning and operating its manufacturing footprint to deliver “foundational” chips used across industrial and automotive systems rather than chasing the most advanced leading-edge compute nodes.
- TI frames Sherman as a cornerstone of a broader U.S. buildout: the company has described a plan to invest more than $60 billion across seven U.S. fabs. [3]
State leadership also underscored the size of the build. In a Dec. 17 press release, Texas Governor Greg Abbott’s office said TI’s Sherman site is expected to employ thousands of Texans, with an expected capital investment of $40 billion over coming decades tied to the new 300mm facility. [4]
Independent tech-industry coverage added color on what “production start” can look like once a fab ramps: Tom’s Hardware reported that SM1 is already delivering chips and is expected to scale toward tens of millions of chips per day, focused on semiconductors for power systems across automotive, lighting, and data centers. [5]
For long-term investors, this is the optimistic case in one sentence: TI is building durable U.S.-based capacity for the kinds of chips that go into almost everything—then harvesting scale advantages over a decade.
The bearish counterpoint: Goldman’s “double downgrade” reignited inventory and margin worries
The most market-moving negative research this week came from Goldman Sachs.
Multiple reports describe Goldman downgrading Texas Instruments to Sell from Buy and cutting its price target to $156, arguing the stock is not positioned to benefit as much as peers from the next phase of the semiconductor upcycle—even with AI spending expected to stay strong. [6]
The core of the Goldman-style bear case (as widely summarized) is:
- The analog cycle may improve, but TI’s strategic capacity and capital decisions could act as an “idiosyncratic drag” on margins and earnings recovery.
- Inventory levels and the cost of carrying/absorbing that inventory matter in a capital-intensive ramp, particularly as depreciation rises. [7]
This debate is not purely theoretical: TI’s own quarterly reporting shows inventories rising. In its Q3 2025 financial release, TI reported inventories of $4.829 billion as of Sept. 30, 2025 (up from $4.296 billion a year earlier). [8]
Investors are essentially asking: Does the Sherman ramp create a temporary profitability valley (higher depreciation + inventory) before the long-term payoff arrives? Bulls say yes—and that the payoff is worth it. Bears say the valley may be deeper or longer than the stock price reflects.
TXN forecasts: where Wall Street price targets and ratings sit on Dec. 19, 2025
On Dec. 19, the analyst picture looks less like consensus and more like a tug-of-war:
- Truist: Hold, $195 price target (raised today). [9]
- Goldman Sachs: Sell, $156 price target (earlier this week). [10]
- MarketBeat’s aggregated view (as published today): consensus “Hold,” with an average target around $191.49, and a distribution that includes Buys, Holds, and Sells. [11]
A useful way to interpret this spread for Google Discover readers: the market is not debating whether TI is a quality analog franchise—it’s debating timing (when margins recover) and how expensive the shares should be while the manufacturing buildout is still being absorbed.
Earnings outlook: what TI itself guided, and what investors will watch next
The most concrete “forecast” for Texas Instruments is still the company’s own outlook.
In its Q3 2025 results release, TI reported:
- Revenue: $4.74 billion
- Net income: $1.36 billion
- EPS: $1.48 (including a 10-cent reduction not in original guidance) [12]
And TI guided for Q4:
- Revenue:$4.22B to $4.58B
- EPS:$1.13 to $1.39 [13]
Reuters coverage at the time emphasized that the outlook came in below Wall Street expectations, with TI pointing to ongoing uncertainty tied to U.S. semiconductor tariffs and the pace of analog recovery. [14]
Why that guidance still matters on Dec. 19: it sets the baseline for how the Street models 2026. If Q4 results (typically reported in January) show accelerating industrial and automotive demand without further margin erosion, the stock’s narrative can pivot quickly. If not, the “inventory + depreciation” concern stays front and center.
Dividends and shareholder returns: a major part of the TXN investment thesis
Texas Instruments is widely owned not only as a semiconductor name, but also as a capital return story.
In September, TI announced it would raise its quarterly dividend by 4% to $1.42 per share, marking 22 consecutive years of dividend increases. [15]
In October, TI’s board formally declared the $1.42 quarterly dividend, payable Nov. 12, 2025 to shareholders of record as of Oct. 31. [16]
Meanwhile, TI’s Q3 results release highlighted the company’s scale of cash deployment over the last 12 months:
- $4.8B invested in capital expenditures
- $6.6B returned to owners (dividends + repurchases) [17]
That combination—heavy capex today, shareholder returns ongoing—is exactly why the stock sparks strong opinions. If the buildout delivers future cost and supply advantages, the dividend engine could look even stronger. If the buildout weighs on free cash flow longer than expected, the market becomes more sensitive to any hint of “missed free cash flow targets,” a risk flagged in recent analyst commentary. [18]
Legal headline risk: lawsuits tied to alleged diversion of chips into Russian weapons
Another current issue investors are seeing in headlines is litigation.
Axios reported that several lawsuits filed by Texas law firms allege TI (along with other companies) supplied chips that were used in Russia’s attacks on civilians in Ukraine, arguing the defendants evaded export laws and that components reached Russia via intermediaries and distribution channels. [19]
Euronews summarized a similar set of claims, describing allegations that weak compliance protocols and limited supply-chain surveillance contributed to the diversion of U.S. technology into drones and missile systems used in the war. [20]
It’s too early to know how this plays out legally, but from a stock perspective it introduces three near-term variables:
- Reputational and ESG-focused investor scrutiny
- Potential compliance and monitoring costs
- “Headline volatility” risk (even before any material financial impact is known)
Another under-the-radar positive: Malaysia assembly and test expansion is already in production
While Sherman grabs most attention, TI has also been strengthening its global backend capacity.
In November 2025, TI announced it opened a second assembly and test factory in Melaka, Malaysia (TIEM2)—already in production—intended to assemble and test billions of chips annually, with a potential investment of up to MYR 5 billion over time and support for up to 500 local jobs when fully operational. [21]
This matters because “fab capacity” is only part of the supply chain. Assembly and test throughput can become a bottleneck, and TI is clearly investing to reduce those constraints as demand recovers.
Governance transition: CEO Haviv Ilan to become chairman in January 2026
TI also has a planned leadership change coming soon.
The company said in October that its board elected President and CEO Haviv Ilan to take on the additional role of chairman beginning January 2026, succeeding longtime chairman Rich Templeton, who will retire at the end of 2025 after a 45-year career with the company. [22]
For long-duration shareholders, this signals strategic continuity more than a pivot—important at a time when the company is executing one of its largest manufacturing investment cycles.
The bottom line for TXN stock on Dec. 19, 2025
Texas Instruments stock is being priced at the intersection of factory strategy and cycle timing.
- The bull case is strengthened by tangible progress: production has started at the flagship Sherman fab, supporting TI’s long-term push to control capacity and cost structure. [23]
- The bear case is sharpened by the same strategy: higher depreciation, inventory levels, and ramp-related costs could delay margin recovery—exactly the concern behind this week’s high-profile downgrade. [24]
What to watch next (near-term catalysts)
- Q4 earnings and commentary (especially inventory trends, utilization, and gross margin trajectory). [25]
- Any further analyst revisions after Truist’s target raise and Goldman’s downgrade. [26]
- Updates on export-control compliance scrutiny and litigation developments tied to the Ukraine-related lawsuits. [27]
References
1. www.marketbeat.com, 2. www.ti.com, 3. www.ti.com, 4. gov.texas.gov, 5. www.tomshardware.com, 6. www.investing.com, 7. www.investing.com, 8. www.ti.com, 9. www.marketbeat.com, 10. www.investing.com, 11. www.marketbeat.com, 12. www.ti.com, 13. www.ti.com, 14. www.reuters.com, 15. www.ti.com, 16. www.ti.com, 17. www.ti.com, 18. www.investing.com, 19. www.axios.com, 20. www.euronews.com, 21. www.ti.com, 22. www.ti.com, 23. www.ti.com, 24. www.investing.com, 25. www.ti.com, 26. www.marketbeat.com, 27. www.axios.com
