Updated: Friday, December 12, 2025 — Thai Beverage Public Company Limited (ThaiBev) shares are trading in a tight range in early December as investors digest FY2025 results, a confirmed full-year dividend, and a wave of broker note adjustments that mostly keep a constructive medium-term view—while acknowledging softer near-term consumption and cost pressures.
As of December 12, 2025, ThaiBev is trading around S$0.465–S$0.470, with a 52-week range of about S$0.435 to S$0.575. [1]
ThaiBev share price on Dec 12, 2025: stuck in a narrow band
ThaiBev (often quoted as SGX: Y92 and also tracked as TBEV.SI) has been largely range-bound through the first half of December. Recent trading data shows repeated closes around S$0.465–S$0.470, suggesting the market is waiting for clearer signals on FY2026 demand recovery—especially in Thai spirits and Vietnam beer—before repricing the stock meaningfully higher or lower. [2]
That “pause” matters because the company is coming off a full-year report that delivered steady revenue but weaker profitability at the group level—despite notable strength in beer earnings.
The big fundamental driver: FY2025 results show profit pressure despite resilient gross profit
ThaiBev’s latest full-year report (financial year ended September 30, 2025) showed:
- Sales revenue:THB 333,286 million (-2.1% YoY)
- EBITDA:THB 57,018 million (-7.5% YoY)
- Net profit:THB 31,153 million (-11.7% YoY)
- Attributable profit to owners:THB 25,361 million (-6.8% YoY) [3]
The topline dip was broad-based across segments (spirits, beer, non-alcoholic beverages, food, and “others”), while EBITDA fell faster—consistent with a year where demand and promotional intensity didn’t fully cooperate. [4]
Reuters’ coverage of the results highlighted the same core narrative: annual profit declined with persistent weakness in the spirits business and weaker earnings in food, even as the company continued to push brand and operating initiatives. [5]
Segment-by-segment: where ThaiBev made money (and where it didn’t)
ThaiBev’s results are best understood as a tale of two engines: (1) spirits still dominates earnings but softened, and (2) beer profitability improved sharply even as revenue dipped.
1) Spirits: still the main earnings pillar, but demand softness bites
For FY2025, ThaiBev reported for Spirits:
- Revenue:THB 118,604 million (-1.8%)
- EBITDA:THB 27,253 million (-7.1%)
- Net profit:THB 19,880 million (-7.0%)
- Attributable profit:THB 19,171 million (-7.7%) [6]
Company commentary points to weaker domestic consumption, while some international markets (including Myanmar) performed more strongly. The segment also saw higher brand investment/marketing and FX effects noted in management presentation materials. [7]
2) Beer: profitability pops, even while revenue slides
Beer was the standout on profit momentum:
- Revenue:THB 123,222 million (-2.5%)
- EBITDA:THB 16,346 million (+5.4%)
- Net profit:THB 6,503 million (+24.6%)
- Attributable profit:THB 4,169 million (+52.4%) [8]
Management materials attribute the beer EBITDA lift to lower raw material costs and production efficiency gains, while noting continued challenges in Vietnam even as Thailand improved. [9]
3) Non-alcoholic beverages: stable volumes, but profits pressured by tax and spend
- Revenue:THB 64,774 million (-1.6%)
- EBITDA:THB 11,308 million (-2.1%)
- Net profit:THB 5,141 million (-13.4%) [10]
ThaiBev flagged softer consumer sentiment, marketing investment, and higher tax expense (including impacts from expired incentives) as part of the mix. [11]
4) Food: swung to loss on expansion-related costs
Food was a negative surprise:
- Revenue:THB 21,899 million (-1.7%)
- Net loss:THB 128 million (vs prior-year net profit) [12]
The company linked the loss to weaker profitability plus higher depreciation associated with restaurant expansion. [13]
5) “Others”: down sharply due to absent one-offs
The “others” category posted a loss, with ThaiBev explicitly pointing to the absence of one-off contributions that supported FY2024. [14]
What management blamed: macro softness and Vietnam regulation headwinds
In its FY2025 materials, ThaiBev described macro pressure including subdued domestic purchasing power and a slowdown in tourist arrivals, while pointing to Vietnam’s alcoholic beverage constraints tied to regulatory measures such as Decree 100 and Decree 168. [15]
Investors watching ThaiBev as a “consumer recovery” story in Thailand and Vietnam will likely treat this as the key debate for FY2026: Is this a cyclical dip, or a longer digestion period?
Dividend update: ThaiBev confirms THB 0.62 for FY2025, with THB 0.47 final dividend
ThaiBev’s SGX filing states:
- Total FY2025 annual dividend:THB 0.62 per share
- Interim dividend already paid (June 2025):THB 0.15 per share
- Balance/final dividend:THB 0.47 per share [16]
Payment timing has been communicated publicly as well, with reporting indicating a final dividend payment date of Feb 27, 2026, and SGX corporate action listings also show the ThaiBev dividend event scheduled around early February (ex/record) and late February (payment). [17]
Dividend stability matters for ThaiBev’s shareholder base because, at current prices, many investors treat the stock as a yield-plus-defensiveness exposure to regional consumption rather than a pure growth sprint.
Balance sheet and debt: refinancing activity, leverage ratios in focus
ThaiBev’s FY2025 filing notes that the company issued THB 38,000 million in debentures (Aug 29, 2025) to repay existing debt, with coupon rates around 1.72%–2.37% and tenors from 3 to 10 years. [18]
Management presentation materials also show leverage-related ratios around year-end, including:
- Liability-to-equity (gearing): ~1.36x
- Net interest-bearing debt to equity: ~0.85x
- Interest-bearing debt to EBITDA: ~3.99x [19]
This doesn’t automatically scream “danger,” but it does explain why analysts keep mentioning net interest costs and why the market wants evidence that margins can improve without needing ever-higher promotional intensity.
Corporate developments investors are watching into FY2026
Vietnam: ThaiBev reiterates long-term commitment with government counterparts
A notable recent corporate-development headline (not an earnings number, but still strategically relevant) came from Vietnam’s Ministry of Industry and Trade. The ministry reported a working session involving Minister Nguyen Hong Dien and ThaiBev leadership, alongside senior leaders from SABECO. ThaiBev’s CEO Thapana Sirivadhanabhakdi reaffirmed confidence in Vietnam’s investment environment and emphasized continued commitment and investment in technology, quality, and consumer experience. [20]
Why stock investors care: Vietnam remains central to ThaiBev’s beer ambitions, but it’s also a tougher operating environment—so “commitment” is reassuring only if it translates into improved execution and returns.
Incremental Vietnam consolidation + food holding structure (Rule 706A filing)
ThaiBev disclosed that SABECO acquired additional shares in a Vietnam-incorporated indirect subsidiary Western–Sai Gon Beer Joint Stock Company (WSB), lifting SABECO’s stake to about 86.32% after purchasing 270,500 shares (about 1.87%) for VND 15.689 billion. [21]
The same filing also notes ThaiBev incorporated International Food Holding Co., Ltd. (Thailand) as an investment holding company for the food business, with registered capital of THB 10,000,000. [22]
Leadership / governance: new Senior Vice President appointment
ThaiBev announced the appointment of Dr. Paitoon Wongsasutthikul as Senior Vice President, with responsibilities spanning sustainability, risk management, governance/risk analysis implementation, and CEO projects/PMO-related roles. [23]
Analyst forecasts (as of Dec 12, 2025): “buy” bias, but targets have been trimmed
Across market data providers, the headline is consistent: analysts still broadly lean positive, but FY2025 results led to target price cuts and more cautious near-term language.
Street-style consensus targets
Investing.com’s compiled view shows:
- Average 12‑month price target: about S$0.561
- High estimate: about S$0.743
- Low estimate: about S$0.435
- Overall rating:Buy, with multiple analysts on the buy side [24]
Another compiled consensus snapshot (as of Dec 12, 2025) places the target around S$0.519, implying a low‑double‑digit percentage upside from ~S$0.465. [25]
Treat these as directional rather than certain: consensus targets can change quickly after commodity moves, FX shifts, or new Vietnam regulatory developments.
Broker notes: lower targets, but many still expect FY2026 improvement
A detailed broker-roundup published in early December reports that analysts generally expect earnings to improve in FY2026, with several houses trimming targets but maintaining positive recommendations. Highlights cited include:
- RHB maintaining a buy stance with a target around S$0.62, viewing ThaiBev as a consumption recovery play
- OCBC keeping a buy call while cutting fair value to around S$0.55 amid subdued consumption expectations
- PhillipCapital trimming to around S$0.53, expecting improvement via cost control
- CGS International raising to about S$0.58 (still constructive), citing margin opportunities from lower input costs
- DBS slightly trimming target to around S$0.62, expecting recovery supported by lower input costs [26]
One recurring theme in those notes: input cost relief (agri/raw materials) could support margin recovery, but demand—especially in spirits and Vietnam beer—still needs to show clearer momentum. [27]
What could move ThaiBev stock next: catalysts and risks into 2026
Potential upside catalysts
- Margin recovery from lower input costs: Multiple analysts are focused on raw material trends and operating efficiency gains feeding into FY2026 margins. [28]
- Thailand consumption rebound: Some broker commentary frames ThaiBev as a domestic consumption recovery play—if confidence improves, spirits can re-accelerate. [29]
- Vietnam execution (SABECO ecosystem): Government-level engagement and incremental consolidation steps can be supportive—if followed by volume and profitability improvements. [30]
- Beer business IPO/spin-off optionality: Still discussed as a potential re-rating event, though timing remains uncertain. [31]
Key risks to keep front-of-mind
- Prolonged weak spirits consumption: The spirits division remains the earnings backbone; extended softness matters disproportionately. [32]
- Vietnam regulatory and demand constraints: Decree-linked restrictions have been cited as a growth headwind for the industry. [33]
- Cost and promotion intensity: Marketing spend can protect market share but compress margins if demand doesn’t follow. [34]
- Leverage/interest costs: Refinancing helps, but analysts are explicitly watching net interest cost assumptions and leverage ratios. [35]
Bottom line for Dec 12, 2025
ThaiBev stock is currently behaving like a market that has priced in FY2025’s softness, appreciates the dividend visibility, and is waiting for proof that FY2026 can deliver better volumes and margins—particularly in Thai spirits and Vietnam beer.
If you’re writing or publishing about Thai Beverage Public Co., Ltd stock for Google News/Discover, the clean framing is:
“Dividend-supported consumer staple with improving cost tailwinds—but demand and Vietnam execution remain the swing factors.” [36]
References
1. www.investing.com, 2. www.investing.com, 3. links.sgx.com, 4. links.sgx.com, 5. www.reuters.com, 6. links.sgx.com, 7. links.sgx.com, 8. links.sgx.com, 9. links.sgx.com, 10. links.sgx.com, 11. links.sgx.com, 12. links.sgx.com, 13. links.sgx.com, 14. links.sgx.com, 15. links.sgx.com, 16. links.sgx.com, 17. www.businesstimes.com.sg, 18. links.sgx.com, 19. links.sgx.com, 20. moit.gov.vn, 21. links.sgx.com, 22. links.sgx.com, 23. links.sgx.com, 24. www.investing.com, 25. growbeansprout.com, 26. www.theedgesingapore.com, 27. www.theedgesingapore.com, 28. www.theedgesingapore.com, 29. www.theedgesingapore.com, 30. moit.gov.vn, 31. www.theedgesingapore.com, 32. links.sgx.com, 33. links.sgx.com, 34. www.theedgesingapore.com, 35. links.sgx.com, 36. links.sgx.com
