Updated December 11, 2025
The Trade Desk, Inc. (NASDAQ: TTD) is having one of those “gravity hurts” years on the stock market. As of this afternoon, the ad‑tech leader’s shares trade around $37, down roughly two‑thirds in 2025, even though revenue and profits are still growing at a double‑digit pace. [1]
At the same time, Wall Street analysts keep slapping “Buy” ratings and price targets that imply the stock could double or more from here. Options traders, meanwhile, are leaning bearish. And high‑profile investor Cathie Wood is quietly hoovering up shares.
Here’s a detailed rundown of today’s news, forecasts and analysis about The Trade Desk stock as of December 11, 2025, and what it all might mean going into 2026.
1. The Trade Desk Stock Today: Price, Performance and Valuation
Real‑time quotes show The Trade Desk trading near $37.06, with an intraday range of roughly $36.88 to $39.03 on December 11. [2]
That places TTD:
- Right at fresh 52‑week lows: recent data show a range of about $36.88–$136.42 over the past year. [3]
- With a one‑year return around –70% and a roughly –66–67% year‑to‑date performance. [4]
In other words: the stock has been nuked, even though the business has not.
On basic valuation metrics, TTD is still not “cheap” in the classic sense:
- Market cap: about $19 billion [5]
- Trailing P/E: low‑to‑mid 40s [6]
- PEG ratio (price/earnings vs growth): around 2 [7]
- Beta near 1.0–1.1, meaning it moves roughly with the broader market, just more dramatically lately. [8]
So you have a paradox: “growth stock” multiples on a share price graph that looks like a ski slope.
2. What’s Moving TTD on December 11, 2025? Today’s Headline Roundup
Several fresh pieces about The Trade Desk hit the wires today. Here’s what they say, in plain English.
2.1 Zacks / Nasdaq: “Does TTD Have the Financial Strength to Fuel Its Next Growth Phase?”
A Zacks research note, syndicated via Nasdaq, frames The Trade Desk as financially strong and ready for its next expansion phase. [9]
Key points from that piece and the company’s Q3 disclosures:
- The Trade Desk ended Q3 with about $1.4 billion in cash, cash equivalents and short‑term investments and no debt. [10]
- Q3 2025 revenue was $739 million, up 17–18% year over year, with adjusted EBITDA of $317 million and a 43% margin. [11]
- Free cash flow for the quarter was about $155 million, underscoring strong cash generation. [12]
Zacks highlights the company’s aggressive investment in its AI‑driven Kokai platform and data products like OpenPath and Sincera, noting that around 85% of clients are already using Kokai as their default experience. The research claims Kokai has delivered markedly better campaign metrics than the prior platform (Solimar), such as lower cost per acquisition and higher click‑through rates. [13]
It also flags international expansion as a major long‑term lever: management estimates that roughly 60% of the company’s addressable market is outside the U.S., whereas international revenue is only ~13% today. [14]
The tone: fundamentally bullish, focused on balance sheet strength and AI‑driven operating leverage.
2.2 Investing.com: “The Trade Desk Stock Hits 52‑Week Low at 38.15 USD”
Investing.com ran a breaking headline this morning noting TTD had hit a new 52‑week low around $38.15, with a one‑year return of –70.75% and a roughly 45.8% decline over the last six months. [15]
Despite the carnage, the article points out:
- The Trade Desk is still profitable and posted about 20% revenue growth recently. [16]
- On their fair‑value models, the stock screens as undervalued, with the company holding more cash than debt (in fact, no debt at all). [17]
The same piece recaps the Q3 earnings beat and the Q4 guidance of at least $840 million in revenue and ~$375 million in adjusted EBITDA, implying high‑teens percentage growth excluding political ad spend. [18]
It also rounds up several price‑target cuts following earnings:
- Truist trimming its target from $100 to $85, still “Buy”
- UBS raising slightly from $80 to $82, “Buy”
- RBC cutting from $90 to $80, “Outperform”
- Evercore dropping from $80 to $70, still positive on the long‑term story [19]
So you get the pattern: targets coming down, ratings mostly still bullish.
2.3 Benzinga: Options Whales Are Mostly Bearish
Benzinga’s midday options recap for The Trade Desk paints a very different picture of sentiment. [20]
Highlights:
- The desk tracked eight large options trades (“whale” trades) in recent sessions.
- About 75% of that flow was classified as bearish, only 12% bullish, with whales targeting strikes in the $30–$60 range over the last three months.
- The article notes that The Trade Desk’s RSI (relative strength index) is approaching oversold levels, underscoring the recent technical pressure.
- It also mentions a Wedbush analyst maintaining a Neutral rating with a $40 price target—essentially saying “we’re not ready to pound the table,” which is very close to where the stock actually trades.
Put simply: derivatives traders are betting more on downside or hedging against it, even while many equity analysts stay optimistic.
2.4 MarketBeat: Institutional Buying and “2026 Comeback Pick”
MarketBeat dropped two separate pieces that matter for TTD today.
a) Investment House LLC boosts its stake
A filing‑based article notes that Investment House LLC increased its position in The Trade Desk by about 297% in Q2, now holding roughly 90,000 shares worth about $6.5 million at the time of the filing. [21]
The same piece highlights:
- TTD opened around $39.22 and had a one‑year range of $38.22–$136.42 at that snapshot. [22]
- A market cap just under $19 billion and a P/E ratio of ~45. [23]
- A $500 million share repurchase authorization (about 2.1% of shares) approved in November—usually a sign the board thinks the stock is undervalued. [24]
- Institutional investors own roughly 68% of outstanding shares, with Vanguard holding about 44.6 million shares. [25]
So while the stock is sliding, the “big money” ownership base is still very much there, and some funds are averaging down.
b) “2026 Comeback Picks: 3 S&P Laggards Poised to Break Out”
Another MarketBeat feature today groups The Trade Desk with Fiserv and Deckers as potential 2026 rebound candidates after a brutal 2025. [26]
For TTD specifically, the article points out:
- The stock is down about 66% in 2025 and over 70% from its high, yet revenue was still up 18% year‑over‑year in the latest quarter. [27]
- The AI‑driven Kokai platform is seeing strong adoption, and connected TV (CTV) remains the fastest‑growing channel. [28]
- At around $37, the share price is near 2020 levels even though revenue has more than tripled since then—what the author calls a classic “asymmetric risk‑reward” setup. [29]
- Analysts in their dataset project ~35% earnings growth in the next year and a consensus price target near $76.5, implying roughly 95% upside from current levels. [30]
That article’s vibe: if the ad cycle normalizes and rates fall, beaten‑up ad tech names like TTD could lead a 2026 comeback.
2.5 TipRanks: “Why Trade Desk Stocks Are Facing Turbulence”
TipRanks published a short breaking‑news note on why TTD is under such pressure. [31]
It attributes the current turbulence mainly to:
- Jefferies lowering its price target, citing concerns about how AI might reshape ad models and limit margin expansion.
- Negative corporate insider sentiment, with more insider selling than buying.
- A technical “Sell” signal, with TipRanks’ data showing a YTD price performance of about –66.7% and average trading volume near 14 million shares.
Despite that, they note that Jefferies analyst Laura Martin still maintains a “Buy” rating, emphasizing The Trade Desk’s strategic position and resilience in online ad demand. [32]
So: fundamental thesis intact, but short‑term sentiment rough.
3. Under the Hood: Q3 2025 Results and AI Strategy
Strip away the flashing red chart, and the business picture is surprisingly robust.
From The Trade Desk’s own Q3 report and follow‑on analysis: [33]
- Revenue: $739 million (+18% YoY)
- GAAP diluted EPS: $0.23
- Non‑GAAP EPS: $0.45 (vs $0.41 a year ago)
- Adjusted EBITDA: $317 million, 43% margin
- Net margin: about 16%
- Non‑GAAP net income: $221 million
Guidance for Q4 2025:
- Revenue of at least $840 million, above earlier Street estimates
- Adjusted EBITDA around $375 million
- Implies ~18.5% YoY growth excluding political advertising [34]
Kokai and the “AI‑First DSP”
Both Zacks and eMarketer highlight Kokai, The Trade Desk’s AI‑enhanced buying platform. [35]
Important details:
- 85%+ of clients are now on Kokai as the default interface. [36]
- Advertisers using Kokai reportedly see:
- Roughly 26% lower cost per acquisition
- About 58% lower cost per unique reach
- Around 94% higher click‑through rates versus the older Solimar platform. [37]
Earlier in the year, some commentators blamed migration issues from Solimar to Kokai for part of the stock’s slump, arguing that the transition temporarily disrupted workflows and spooked investors. [38]
Recent commentary from eMarketer and Seeking Alpha suggests those bumps are largely behind the company and that Kokai now underpins The Trade Desk’s positioning as an “AI‑first DSP” for the open internet (as opposed to the “walled gardens” of Google, Meta, Amazon, etc.). [39]
Connected TV and the Open Web Thesis
From the Q3 call coverage:
- CTV and digital video now account for roughly half of revenue, and CTV is still outgrowing other channels. [40]
- CEO Jeff Green continues to pitch The Trade Desk as the neutral backbone of the open internet, emphasizing standards like Unified ID 2.0, OpenRTB transaction IDs and OpenAds. [41]
eMarketer’s analysis adds an important nuance:
- The open‑web vision is still aspirational: many publishers are struggling, and the balance of ad dollars is still skewed toward big platforms.
- But The Trade Desk has become a key third‑party demand source for premium publishers, particularly in CTV, where it competes less directly with Google‑style search ads and more with linear TV budgets. [42]
So at the business level, the story is “strong growth + healthy margins + aggressive AI/CTV pivot.” The market is arguing about how much that’s worth.
4. Wall Street’s TTD Stock Forecasts: Big Upside on Paper
Two big aggregators—StockAnalysis and MarketBeat—give a good snapshot of current analyst thinking.
4.1 StockAnalysis: Consensus “Buy” and ~119% Upside
According to StockAnalysis: [43]
- 34 analysts cover The Trade Desk.
- The consensus rating is “Buy.”
- The average 12‑month price target is $81.15, with a low of $40 and a high of $145.
- From roughly $37 today, that implies about 119% upside if the average target is right.
- Forecasts call for:
- 2025 revenue around $2.92 billion (+19% vs 2024)
- 2026 revenue about $3.39 billion (+16%)
- 2025 EPS around $1.78 (up ~129% from 2024)
- 2026 EPS about $2.09 (+17%)
In forward‑looking shorthand: analysts expect high‑teens revenue growth and even faster EPS growth, as AI and scale improve margins.
4.2 MarketBeat: “Moderate Buy” and Targets in the High‑$70s
MarketBeat’s tally is similar but slightly more cautious: [44]
- 36 analysts in their universe
- 21 Buy, 12 Hold, 3 Sell
- Consensus rating: “Moderate Buy”
- Average price target: $77.19
Their coverage also notes:
- The same Q3 beat (EPS $0.45 vs $0.44 expected; revenue $739.43M vs $719.11M, up 17.7% YoY). [45]
- The $500 million buyback plan, signalling management’s confidence in intrinsic value. [46]
Price‑target trends, however, have mostly been downward in the past month:
- Wedbush cut its target from $50 to $40 (Hold). [47]
- RBC trimmed from $90 to $80 (Buy). [48]
- Truist dropped from $100 to $85 (Buy). [49]
The message: analysts still generally like the stock, but the bar has been lowered.
5. Big Money Positioning: Institutions, Cathie Wood and Options Flow
5.1 Institutions: Still Heavily In
Between MarketBeat’s institutional ownership data and recent 13F filings: [50]
- Around 68% of TTD shares are held by institutional investors.
- Vanguard alone owns over 44 million shares.
- Several smaller firms—including Investment House LLC—have significantly increased their positions this year, even as the stock fell.
That doesn’t guarantee anything, but it suggests the sell‑off hasn’t scared away long‑term “smart money” en masse.
5.2 Cathie Wood and ARK Invest: Buying the Plunge
Across multiple trading‑desk summaries, ARK Invest (Cathie Wood’s firm) has been steadily adding to The Trade Desk as it drops: [51]
- One GuruFocus note says ARK bought roughly 385,000 TTD shares this month, worth over $15 million, across its ARKK and ARKW ETFs. [52]
- An Investing.com report mentions an additional 180,445 shares purchased for about $7.1 million split between ARKK and ARKW on a single day. [53]
- A TipRanks/Nasdaq recap highlights another ~204,000‑share buy (~$7.9 million) as Wood rotated out of mega‑caps like Tesla and Meta and into mid‑cap growth such as The Trade Desk and Baidu. [54]
Taken together, the pattern is clear: ARK is using this drawdown to build a sizable stake, betting that ad‑tech plus AI plus CTV will look a lot better by 2026 than the chart suggests today.
5.3 Options and Technicals: The Cautious Counterweight
On the other side, the options market and technical indicators lean bearish or at least skeptical: [55]
- Benzinga’s options scan shows whale trades skewing heavily bearish, targeting a $30–$60 price range.
- TipRanks labels the technical sentiment as “Sell,” tracks a YTD decline around –66.7%, and notes elevated trading volumes.
So structurally you’ve got:
Fundamental bulls (analysts, ARK, some institutions) vs. tactical bears (options traders, technical signals).
That tug‑of‑war is basically what you see every time TTD tries to bounce and then makes new lows.
6. Key Risks Around The Trade Desk Stock
Before anyone gets starry‑eyed about 100% upside, it’s worth being blunt about the risks that show up across today’s coverage and recent research.
- Ad‑spend cyclicality
Digital advertising may be more measurable than TV or print, but budgets are still macro‑sensitive. A weaker economy, slower ecommerce, or prolonged high rates could pressure brand spend, even in high‑growth channels like CTV. - Competition from walled gardens
eMarketer and others stress that Amazon, Meta and Google still dominate ad budgets, and that the open‑internet dream is not yet fully realized. [56]
If advertisers consolidate budgets into these closed ecosystems, independent DSPs like The Trade Desk will have to work harder to win incremental dollars. - Execution risk on Kokai and AI
At least one recent analysis blamed some of TTD’s stock pain on operational friction as users migrated to Kokai, and on investor nerves over whether the AI story is mostly hype or real margin expansion. [57] - Valuation risk
Even after a 60–70% drawdown, TTD trades in the 40x earnings neighborhood, not at single‑digit P/E fire‑sale levels. [58]
If growth slows from the high‑teens/low‑20s to low‑teens, the stock could get hit again by further multiple compression. - AI and privacy/regulation
Several notes (including TipRanks’ mention of Jefferies’ concerns) point out that AI‑driven ad targeting and data‑sharing are regulatory moving targets. Changes in privacy law, identity standards, or major platform policies could hurt The Trade Desk’s ability to target and measure campaigns efficiently. [59]
None of these are fatal on their own, but together they explain why the market is not willing (for now) to pay 2021‑style ad‑tech multiples.
7. Possible 2026 Scenarios: A Quick Framework
This is where we’re firmly in scenario‑building, not prediction.
Using the analyst numbers as a baseline: [60]
- 2026 EPS forecast ≈ $2.09
- 2025–2026 revenue growth in the mid‑teens
- Balance sheet with net cash and high free‑cash‑flow margins
You can sketch three broad outcomes:
- Bull case
- Kokai and CTV keep driving ~20%+ growth.
- Margins stay high or expand.
- Market is willing to pay, say, 30–35× 2026 EPS for a durable compounder.
- That math gets you $63–$73+ per share, roughly in line with many current price targets.
- Base case
- Growth slows into the mid‑teens.
- The market settles around 25× forward earnings, giving a price in the low‑to‑mid $50s—still solid upside from ~$37 but nowhere near the “multibagger” narrative.
- Bear case
- Open‑web ad share stalls; walled gardens and new AI ad formats take more of the pie.
- Growth decelerates sharply, or margins compress.
- The multiple compresses toward 15–20×, which on the same EPS forecast would leave the stock roughly where it is or even lower.
The articles you saw today basically represent different bets on which of these worlds we’re heading toward.
8. How to Think About TTD Stock After Today’s Headlines
Putting the December 11 news together:
- The business: still growing high‑teens with fat margins, lots of cash, no debt, and big bets on AI and CTV. [61]
- Wall Street: mostly bullish, but trimming expectations and price targets. [62]
- Flows and sentiment:
- Valuation: no longer euphoric, not yet “cigar butt cheap.”
If you zoom out, The Trade Desk today is a classic high‑quality growth stock that has crashed back to reality. Whether that crash is an opportunity or a warning depends on:
- Your time horizon (quarters vs. years),
- Your tolerance for volatility, and
- How much you believe in the open‑internet + AI + CTV thesis versus the gravitational pull of big‑tech walled gardens.
References
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