Updated: Friday, Dec. 12, 2025 (after U.S. market close)
Meta description: Tilray (TLRY) surged this week as cannabis stocks spiked on reports Trump may push marijuana rescheduling. Here’s what happened and what to watch next week.
Tilray Brands, Inc. (NASDAQ: TLRY) delivered one of the cannabis sector’s most dramatic weekly moves, culminating in a surge on Friday, December 12, as traders reacted to fresh reporting that President Donald Trump could soon take steps aimed at loosening federal marijuana restrictions.
By the close on Dec. 12, TLRY finished at $12.15, up 44.13% on the day, after trading between $10.28 and $12.41. Volume exploded to 81.58 million shares, far above its 5.67 million average—an unmistakable sign that momentum traders and headline-driven buyers piled in at once. [1]
This article breaks down what moved Tilray stock this week, the key news you need to know from the last several days, what Wall Street forecasts are signaling, and the catalysts likely to drive TLRY in the week ahead.
TLRY stock this week: A steady climb… then a headline-fueled spike
The week (Dec. 8–Dec. 12) started quietly, then accelerated sharply on Friday as the rescheduling story hit the tape.
Tilray Brands (TLRY) week-in-review (close-to-close): [2]
- Mon, Dec. 8: $7.20 (-2.04%)
- Tue, Dec. 9: $8.09 (+12.36%)
- Wed, Dec. 10: $8.26 (+2.10%)
- Thu, Dec. 11: $8.43 (+2.06%)
- Fri, Dec. 12: $12.15 (+44.13%)
From Monday’s close ($7.20) to Friday’s close ($12.15), TLRY gained +68.75% over five sessions. [3]
Even after the closing bell, the “risk-on” tone continued: MarketBeat data showed extended-hours pricing at $13.14 (+8.19%) as of 8:00 p.m. ET on Dec. 12. [4]
Why it matters: A one-day +44% move with ~14× average volume (based on MarketBeat’s volume stats) often reflects event-driven repricing, not a slow fundamental re-evaluation. That can cut both ways: it can extend if more confirming headlines arrive, or reverse quickly if the story cools off. [5]
What’s driving Tilray’s spike: Trump rescheduling headlines ignite cannabis stocks
The biggest catalyst on Dec. 12 wasn’t a Tilray earnings update or a new acquisition—it was politics.
Reuters reported that cannabis stocks jumped after The Washington Post said President Trump was expected to push the government to loosen federal restrictions on marijuana. Reuters also reported that Trump could issue an executive order “as soon as Monday” to allow for reclassification, citing CNBC’s reporting and a source familiar with the matter. Importantly, Reuters included the White House response: “No final decisions have been made on the rescheduling of marijuana,” according to a White House official. [6]
Investopedia echoed the same thrust: it reported that cannabis stocks surged on the expectation Trump could reclassify marijuana, noted CNBC’s executive-order timeline, and said a White House spokesperson told Investopedia no final decisions had been made. [7]
Schedule I vs. Schedule III: why markets care so much
Both Reuters and Investopedia framed the potential move as shifting marijuana from Schedule I (alongside drugs such as heroin, cocaine, and LSD) toward Schedule III, a category that includes some prescription medicines such as steroids and codeine. [8]
From a market perspective, the direction of the move matters because investors see Schedule III as a potential catalyst for:
- Lower taxes and easier financing for parts of the cannabis industry (a major theme highlighted in coverage of why the news matters). [9]
- More normalized product and research pathways—Reuters quoted TD Cowen analyst Jaret Seiberg saying rescheduling could “open the door” for more cannabis products to seek pharmaceutical-style approvals. [10]
- A wider set of possible downstream catalysts. Reuters also quoted Alliance Global Partners analyst Aaron Grey, who pointed to catalysts like more state legalization, safer banking, and the “ultimate uplisting” of plant-touching stocks (even if those are not immediate outcomes). [11]
A key reality check: the process is not instant
One reason cannabis stocks remain extremely headline-sensitive is that rescheduling is a process, not a switch flip.
Reuters noted that the Biden administration previously asked the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) to review marijuana’s classification, and that HHS recommended moving it to Schedule III—but the Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA) must review that recommendation and decide on reclassification. [12]
That “process risk” is exactly why TLRY and peers can surge on “expected” actions—and just as quickly give back gains if timelines slip, details disappoint, or the White House reiterates uncertainty.
Company news from the last several days: products, portfolio, and positioning
While Washington headlines dominated the tape, Tilray did have fresh company news in recent days—especially on the consumer-product side of the business.
1) Redecan launches “Amped” live resin liquid diamond vape cartridges (Dec. 11)
On Dec. 11, Tilray announced a product launch for its Canadian cannabis brand Redecan: Amped Live Resin Liquid Diamond 1g 510 cartridges, described as Redecan’s first live resin–liquid diamond line. The release details an 80% live resin / 20% liquid diamonds formulation and notes initial availability in Ontario and Alberta, with national distribution scheduled for early 2026. [13]
This is incremental from a revenue standpoint compared to a U.S. federal policy shift—but it supports Tilray’s ongoing strategy of competing on branded product innovation in Canada’s mature market.
2) Holiday marketing push highlights beverages and hemp-derived THC drinks (Dec. 4)
Tilray also published a “Ultimate 2025 Holiday Drink Gift Guide” on Dec. 4, positioning its beverage portfolio across craft beer, premium spirits, ready-to-drink cocktails, and hemp-derived beverages in North America. [14]
That matters for investors watching Tilray’s diversification story: TLRY often trades partly as a cannabis-policy lever, but the company continues to emphasize that it’s built a broader consumer packaged goods platform.
3) Cannabis Holiday Gift Guide (Dec. 4) points to Canada’s seasonal demand
In a separate Dec. 4 release, Tilray said it published a “2025 Cannabis Holiday Gift Guide” and cited Statistics Canada data showing retail cannabis sales nearing $500 million in December 2024 (described as the highest monthly total of 2024). The company also highlighted brand families like Good Supply, Redecan, Broken Coast, and THC beverage brand Mollo. [15]
Again: not a single-stock catalyst the way rescheduling headlines are—but it reinforces the idea that the Canadian market still has meaningful seasonal and category dynamics.
The reverse stock split is still part of the TLRY story
Tilray’s price action in late November and early December also has to be read through the lens of a major corporate action: a reverse stock split.
On Nov. 26, 2025, Tilray announced it would implement a 1-for-10 reverse stock split, previously approved by stockholders, and said shares were expected to begin trading on a split-adjusted basis on Dec. 2, 2025. The company said the split would reduce outstanding shares from about 1.16 billion to 116 million and that no fractional shares would be issued (cash would be provided in lieu of fractional shares). [16]
Investopedia later explained the mechanics and market context: reverse splits consolidate shares and increase the per-share price proportionally, typically without changing the underlying value of an investor’s position, while noting that such moves are often viewed skeptically by markets. [17]
Why it still matters now: Reverse splits can change how a stock trades—liquidity patterns, options behavior, and the “psychology” of price levels. And because TLRY is heavily retail-owned and news-sensitive, structure changes can amplify volatility around major headlines.
Wall Street forecasts and analyst views: “Hold” consensus, but big dispersion
Even with Friday’s surge, analyst sentiment on TLRY remains mixed.
MarketBeat data shows:
- Consensus rating: Hold
- Consensus price target:$20.00
- Implied upside: about 64.6% from $12.15 (as cited by MarketBeat at the Dec. 12 close) [18]
Drilling deeper into the forecast range, MarketBeat’s forecast page lists a high target of $30.00 and a low target of $10.00 and notes the consensus is based on seven Wall Street analysts. [19]
A notable change this week: ATB Capital Markets upgrade
On Dec. 12, MarketBeat reported that ATB Capital Markets upgraded Tilray from “strong sell” to “hold,” highlighting a shift in short-term sentiment. [20]
That said, MarketBeat also described broader mixed coverage, citing examples such as Jefferies’ “buy” stance and a “sell” rating from Weiss Ratings. [21]
Short interest: still relevant in headline-driven squeezes
MarketBeat also reported:
- 8.86% of the float sold short
- Days to cover: 2.4
- Short interest decreased ~1.74% recently [22]
With that backdrop, it’s easy to see why TLRY can behave like a “spring”: a burst of bullish policy headlines + heavy volume can force rapid repositioning.
Earnings calendar and near-term expectations: what the market is looking for
The next major “scheduled” catalyst is earnings.
MarketBeat estimates Tilray’s Q2 2026 earnings are likely on Friday, Jan. 9, 2026, with a conference call at 8:30 a.m. ET (based on past reporting schedules). [23]
For that quarter, MarketBeat lists:
- Consensus EPS:– $0.17
- Expected revenue:$211.15 million [24]
Separately, Tilray’s November investor presentation release included forward-looking commentary referencing the company’s fiscal 2026 guidance, including expected Adjusted EBITDA of $62–$72 million. [25]
Why earnings matter for TLRY right now: Policy headlines can move the stock in days. Earnings and guidance shape investor conviction in weeks and months—especially for a company trying to prove that its diversification strategy can translate into sustainable profitability and cash-flow quality.
TLRY technical levels to watch after Friday’s breakout
No charts here—just the levels traders are likely watching based on this week’s tape:
- Friday’s intraday low:$10.28 (near-term support if momentum fades) [26]
- Thursday’s close:$8.43 (a key “gap risk” level if the rescheduling story unwinds) [27]
- Friday’s intraday high:$12.41 (near-term resistance/“breakout” reference) [28]
- 52-week range (split-adjusted):$3.51 to $23.20 (longer-term context for upside/downside) [29]
Because Friday’s move came with unusually high volume, many traders will treat $12+ as the “line in the sand” for whether the breakout is being accepted—or rejected—by the market.
Week ahead (Dec. 15–Dec. 19): the catalysts most likely to move Tilray stock
Here’s the practical checklist for the week ahead. If you’re following TLRY, these are the headline categories that could matter most:
1) Any confirmation (or denial) on marijuana rescheduling steps
The market’s biggest open question is simple: do the “as soon as Monday” reports turn into an actual directive, statement, or formal action?
Both Reuters and Investopedia reported the possibility of a Trump executive order as soon as Monday—while also emphasizing the White House line that no final decisions have been made. [30]
Translation for investors: the next leg up (or down) could hinge on whether the news cycle shifts from “expected” to “confirmed”—or stalls out.
2) Process headlines: HHS/DEA next steps
Reuters underscored that the DEA must review HHS’s recommendation and make the reclassification decision. [31]
So even if political pressure rises, traders will be watching for any sign of timelines, agency guidance, or procedural acceleration.
3) Sector sympathy and “risk appetite” moves
Tilray is often traded as part of a basket with other cannabis names and ETFs, especially in policy-driven rallies. Reuters highlighted that the move was broad across cannabis companies and sector vehicles. [32]
If the group stays “hot,” TLRY can continue to get pulled along—even on days with no company-specific news.
4) Company news: more product/brand updates are possible
Tilray has been active with brand launches and consumer campaigns recently (Redecan’s vape launch, holiday beverage messaging). Additional releases can add incremental momentum—particularly if they reinforce growth narratives in Canada beverages, or international medical cannabis. [33]
Bottom line
Tilray stock delivered a powerful week, with a steady climb followed by a dramatic Friday spike as investors priced in the possibility of U.S. federal marijuana rescheduling progress. [34]
But the same thing that powered the rally—headline risk—also raises the odds of sharp, fast reversals. With the White House saying no final decisions have been made, next week’s direction may depend less on traditional fundamentals and more on whether the rescheduling narrative moves from “reports” to “reality.” [35]
References
1. www.marketbeat.com, 2. www.marketbeat.com, 3. www.marketbeat.com, 4. www.marketbeat.com, 5. www.marketbeat.com, 6. www.reuters.com, 7. www.investopedia.com, 8. www.investopedia.com, 9. www.investopedia.com, 10. www.reuters.com, 11. www.reuters.com, 12. www.reuters.com, 13. www.globenewswire.com, 14. www.globenewswire.com, 15. www.globenewswire.com, 16. www.globenewswire.com, 17. www.investopedia.com, 18. www.marketbeat.com, 19. www.marketbeat.com, 20. www.marketbeat.com, 21. www.marketbeat.com, 22. www.marketbeat.com, 23. www.marketbeat.com, 24. www.marketbeat.com, 25. www.globenewswire.com, 26. www.marketbeat.com, 27. www.marketbeat.com, 28. www.marketbeat.com, 29. www.marketbeat.com, 30. www.reuters.com, 31. www.reuters.com, 32. www.reuters.com, 33. www.globenewswire.com, 34. www.marketbeat.com, 35. www.reuters.com
