Meta description: Tilray Brands (NASDAQ: TLRY) is surging as cannabis stocks rally on fresh U.S. rescheduling headlines. Here’s what’s driving TLRY, what analysts forecast, and what to watch next.
Tilray Brands, Inc. (NASDAQ: TLRY; TSX: TLRY) is back in the spotlight on Friday, December 12, 2025, after a sharp move higher in extended-hours trading and premarket action alongside a broader rally in cannabis-linked equities.
The immediate catalyst is political: a report that President Donald Trump is expected to push the federal government to loosen marijuana restrictions by directing agencies toward reclassifying marijuana as a Schedule III substance—a shift that could materially change the regulatory and economic landscape for the industry if it advances. [1]
Below is a detailed, publication-ready breakdown of what’s moving Tilray stock today, the most relevant company updates, and the forecasts and analyst takes shaping sentiment as of 12/12/2025.
TLRY stock today: what’s driving the move on Dec. 12, 2025
A Reuters report early Friday said U.S.-listed shares of Tilray Brands jumped about 28% in premarket trading, with other cannabis names moving in tandem following the Washington Post story. [2]
Several market data pages also reflected a large gap between Thursday’s regular-session close and early Friday extended-hours pricing (a reminder that premarket levels can move quickly on headlines and liquidity is thinner). [3]
Why this matters: TLRY has been a high-volatility, headline-sensitive stock for years, and policy-driven momentum tends to create fast price swings—especially after corporate actions like Tilray’s recent reverse stock split (more on that below). [4]
The catalyst: Trump’s expected push toward Schedule III rescheduling
What the Washington Post reported
The Washington Post reported that President Trump is planning an executive order that would direct the federal government toward reclassifying marijuana, potentially aligning it with Schedule III substances (and reducing restrictions compared with Schedule I). The Post also emphasized that no final decision had been made, according to a White House official. [5]
What Reuters highlighted (and why markets reacted)
Reuters noted that rescheduling could:
- reduce regulatory friction,
- potentially ease criminal penalties,
- lower industry tax burdens, and
- improve access to financing (one of the sector’s biggest constraints). [6]
Reuters also cited TD Cowen’s Jaret Seiberg arguing the change could open the door for pharmaceutical pathways for additional cannabis products—another reason the market treats Schedule III headlines as a major valuation catalyst. [7]
Schedule III: potential upside… and the fine print investors often miss
The bullish interpretation
If marijuana were ultimately treated as a Schedule III controlled substance, many analysts expect meaningful economic relief—especially through tax treatment. A core talking point is IRS Code Section 280E, which disallows many ordinary business deductions for companies trafficking in Schedule I or II substances. Policy researchers have argued that rescheduling would alleviate those 280E-linked distortions, potentially improving profitability for U.S. operators. [8]
The cautionary reality check
Even if rescheduling moves forward, it is not the same as federal legalization, and it may not automatically “solve” banking.
A Congressional Research Service analysis has cautioned that rescheduling alone is unlikely to eliminate the legal risks for financial institutions serving marijuana businesses, meaning access to traditional banking could still remain constrained without additional legal/regulatory changes. [9]
Bottom line: TLRY’s rally today is being driven by the possibility of a major regulatory shift, but the implementation details and timeline are still unknown—and the White House signaled the decision is not final. [10]
Why this policy headline matters specifically for Tilray Brands
Tilray is a Canada-based, globally active company spanning cannabis, beverages, wellness, and distribution, and management has repeatedly positioned Tilray as a potential beneficiary of U.S. policy normalization—particularly in medical cannabis, where it has argued the market could be large enough to support meaningful revenue opportunities if federal constraints ease.
On Tilray’s Q1 FY2026 earnings call, management discussed the potential to pursue participation in the U.S. medical cannabis industry and referenced a $300 million to $500 million opportunity as a share-of-market scenario tied to rescheduling optimism. [11]
That framing helps explain why TLRY tends to react strongly to U.S. rescheduling news, even though Tilray’s current U.S. cannabis exposure is constrained by federal law.
The other big TLRY headline investors are still digesting: the reverse stock split
Tilray implemented a 1-for-10 reverse stock split, effective after market close on Dec. 1, 2025, with split-adjusted trading beginning Dec. 2, 2025. The company said the move aimed to:
- better align share count with peers,
- improve institutional attractiveness, and
- reduce annual meeting costs (up to ~$1 million annually), among other objectives. [12]
The press release also stated the split reduced shares outstanding from ~1.16 billion to ~116 million, and introduced a new CUSIP (88688T209). [13]
Investopedia noted that reverse splits are often interpreted negatively by markets and highlighted how sharply TLRY sold off into the event in late November. [14]
Why this matters today: after a reverse split, percentage moves can feel even more dramatic, and some historical price/target comparisons can be misleading unless they’re clearly split-adjusted.
Tilray’s company news this week: product launches and brand marketing
Beyond the policy catalyst, Tilray has also put out fresh consumer-facing updates:
New Redecan vape product launch (Dec. 11, 2025)
Tilray announced that its Canadian brand Redecan launched Amped Live Resin Liquid Diamond 1g 510 cartridges, initially in Ontario and Alberta, with national distribution planned for early 2026. [15]
“Ultimate 2025 Holiday Drink Gift Guide” (Dec. 4, 2025)
Tilray also released a holiday beverage gift guide highlighting craft beer, spirits, RTD cocktails, and hemp-derived THC beverages (a category Tilray has increasingly emphasized as part of its broader consumer packaged goods positioning). [16]
These releases aren’t typically “stock movers” on their own—but they add context to Tilray’s narrative of building a diversified platform beyond Canadian recreational cannabis.
The latest financial snapshot: Tilray’s Q1 FY2026 results and outlook
Tilray’s most recent quarterly report (Q1 fiscal 2026, quarter ended Aug. 31, 2025) included:
- Net revenue: $209.5 million (+5% YoY)
- Net income: $1.5 million (vs. a net loss of $34.7 million a year earlier)
- Adjusted EBITDA: $10.2 million (+9% YoY)
- Cash and equivalents: $264.8 million
- Segment net revenue: Cannabis $64.5M; Beverage $55.7M; Wellness $15.2M; Distribution $74.0M [17]
Separately, Tilray’s FY2026 guidance (fiscal year ending May 31, 2026) has included an Adjusted EBITDA range of $62 million to $72 million. [18]
Forecasts and analyst views as of Dec. 12, 2025
Analyst opinion on Tilray remains mixed—reflecting a tug-of-war between (1) regulatory optionality and (2) execution and sector fundamentals.
1) Analyst note: ATB Capital Markets shifts to “Hold”
ATB Capital Markets upgraded Tilray to a Hold/Sector Perform-type stance this week (depending on the report format) with a price target around $8.50 in split-adjusted terms, per syndicated write-ups. [19]
2) TD Cowen: “Buy” maintained, but target cut after the reverse split
TD Cowen maintained a Buy rating while cutting its price target to $10 (with commentary tying the revision to the reverse split and sector challenges), according to a recap of the note. [20]
3) Broader “consensus” targets vary widely by data provider
One widely circulated dataset (via Nasdaq/Fintel syndication) recently showed an average target near the high teens on a split-adjusted basis. [21]
Meanwhile, MarketBeat summaries around early December showed consensus framing closer to Hold, and some reports cited targets reaching $20—though it’s important to note that target databases can change quickly after a reverse split as models and vendor feeds update. [22]
Practical takeaway for readers: after a reverse split, targets can look like they “jumped” even when the analyst’s fundamental view didn’t change—because the share price scale changed. Always confirm whether targets are explicitly split-adjusted and what date the target was issued.
Next major catalyst: Tilray’s next earnings date
Looking ahead, several market calendars estimate Tilray’s next earnings report (Q2 fiscal 2026) for early January 2026, with Nasdaq listing an estimated date of Jan. 9, 2026. [23]
That event could matter more than usual because:
- investors will want confirmation that Tilray’s profitability progress is continuing, and
- any update to guidance or commentary around U.S. regulatory planning could amplify the current policy-driven narrative.
TLRY bull case vs. bear case after today’s spike
Bull case: policy optionality + improving fundamentals
Supporters argue the setup includes:
- A possible U.S. rescheduling tailwind that could reshape the sector’s tax and financing profile if it advances. [24]
- Improved profitability metrics versus prior-year periods (net income and adjusted EBITDA improvement in Q1 FY2026). [25]
- A diversified business model spanning beverages and distribution that could help stabilize revenue versus “pure-play” cannabis producers. [26]
Bear case: uncertainty, dilution risk, and “headline volatility”
Skeptics point to:
- The fact that the rescheduling plan is not finalized, and timelines can shift. [27]
- Rescheduling may not fully unlock banking access by itself, per CRS. [28]
- Reverse splits often reflect prior share-price weakness and can be seen as a warning sign. [29]
- Ongoing potential dilution: Tilray’s SEC filings describe an at-the-market equity program with up to $51,597,980 remaining available to be sold under the program at the time of filing, and the company explicitly warns that issuing shares could pressure the market price. [30]
What to watch next (TLRY stock checklist)
If you’re tracking Tilray Brands stock into year-end, the market is likely to focus on:
- Confirmation and details of any executive action on rescheduling (and whether it translates into an actionable agency process). [31]
- Any updates on how rescheduling could affect taxation and capital access across the sector—and whether lawmakers/regulators follow with complementary moves (banking remains a key watchpoint). [32]
- Q2 FY2026 earnings in early January 2026 and any guidance commentary. [33]
- Tilray’s capital strategy (including ATM usage) and whether the company raises equity during periods of elevated volatility. [34]
References
1. www.reuters.com, 2. www.reuters.com, 3. www.marketbeat.com, 4. www.globenewswire.com, 5. www.washingtonpost.com, 6. www.reuters.com, 7. www.reuters.com, 8. taxfoundation.org, 9. www.congress.gov, 10. www.washingtonpost.com, 11. www.fool.com, 12. www.globenewswire.com, 13. www.globenewswire.com, 14. www.investopedia.com, 15. www.globenewswire.com, 16. www.globenewswire.com, 17. www.globenewswire.com, 18. www.sec.gov, 19. 247wallst.com, 20. www.investing.com, 21. www.nasdaq.com, 22. www.marketbeat.com, 23. www.nasdaq.com, 24. www.reuters.com, 25. www.globenewswire.com, 26. www.globenewswire.com, 27. www.washingtonpost.com, 28. www.congress.gov, 29. www.investopedia.com, 30. www.sec.gov, 31. www.washingtonpost.com, 32. www.reuters.com, 33. www.nasdaq.com, 34. www.sec.gov
