December 15, 2025
Tilray Brands, Inc. (NASDAQ: TLRY) is back in the spotlight on December 15 after one of its biggest momentum bursts in years—followed by an equally fast reality check. The stock’s latest swing is being driven less by quarterly fundamentals and more by a single macro catalyst: growing (but still unconfirmed) expectations that President Donald Trump could move to ease federal marijuana restrictions by pushing a reclassification of cannabis to Schedule III.
That policy headline helped ignite a sector-wide surge late last week. On Monday, however, the rally showed clear signs of fatigue as uncertainty over timing, scope, and political follow-through hit risk appetite.
TLRY stock price action on December 15, 2025
Tilray shares were down about 7% in late-afternoon trading, changing hands around $11.30. The Motley Fool
That pullback followed an explosive week in which Tilray gained sharply—one widely cited figure put the stock up roughly 65% over the past week, powered by regulatory optimism in the cannabis space. The Motley Fool
In other words: TLRY is behaving like a classic “headline stock” today—fast money in, fast money out, and price action that can flip in hours.
What’s driving Tilray stock right now
1) Trump rescheduling speculation is moving the entire cannabis sector
Multiple reports circulating since late last week have suggested Trump is considering steps that could lead to marijuana being reclassified under federal law from Schedule I (most restrictive) to Schedule III (less restrictive). Reuters reported that cannabis names rose sharply in early European trading on Monday as investors positioned for the possibility of looser U.S. federal rules. Reuters
Benzinga’s midday recap framed TLRY’s Monday move as a pullback from last week’s cannabis-stock strength tied to the same report-driven narrative. Benzinga
2) The rally cooled because the White House signaled uncertainty
The market’s problem: the catalyst remains uncertain. Investopedia reported that cannabis stocks slid after early optimism, noting that a White House spokesperson said no final decision had been made—helping explain why Tilray and peers gave back gains. Investopedia
That “hope vs. confirmation” gap is critical for TLRY traders. When a move is driven by the possibility of an executive action, even a small change in perceived odds can swing prices hard in both directions.
Why Schedule III matters for Tilray and cannabis stocks
Even though a Schedule III move would not equal nationwide legalization, it could still be meaningful for the industry’s economics.
Reuters described how reclassification could reshape the industry through potentially lower taxes and improved access to funding, while federal restrictions have historically kept many banks and institutions away from the sector. Reuters
Investopedia also highlighted several potential impacts of a Schedule III shift, including easing financial pressure, enabling broader research, reducing tax burdens, and improving access to banking services—while emphasizing cannabis would remain federally illegal even if many states allow it. Investopedia
For Tilray specifically, the market tends to trade TLRY as a “liquidity proxy” for U.S. policy sentiment: when reform odds rise, TLRY often moves quickly because it is liquid, widely followed, and heavily owned by retail traders relative to many smaller operators.
Today’s technical and momentum read: mixed signals
Monday’s price action isn’t just about politics—technicals are playing a role as well, and several outlets published chart-focused takes today.
Relative Strength (RS) and momentum indicators
Investor’s Business Daily reported that Tilray’s Relative Strength (RS) Rating jumped to 94 (up from 76), putting it into a higher-performing cohort on a 52-week relative basis. IBD noted that the stock still wasn’t showing a clear “entry point,” but flagged it as a name to watch if a new pattern develops. Investors
Moving averages and trend signals
A Zacks technical note republished by Finviz said TLRY recently crossed above its 200-day moving average, a level many trend-followers view as a long-term line in the sand. The same piece pointed to recent gains over the last four weeks and referenced improving earnings estimate revisions, while still tagging TLRY as a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). Finviz
Benzinga’s support/resistance snapshot (short-term trading lens)
Benzinga’s analysis described TLRY as well above its 20-day moving average (short-term strength) but still struggling relative to the 50-day and 100-day moving averages—an “in-between” technical posture that often coincides with volatile consolidation. It cited an RSI around the low 60s and highlighted nearby support/resistance levels. Benzinga
Taken together, the technical picture fits what the tape is showing: strong momentum compared to where TLRY was earlier this year, but not yet a clean, stable uptrend.
Forecasts and analyst outlook: why the numbers don’t fully agree
If you’re looking for a single “Tilray stock forecast,” you won’t find one—at least not a consistent one. Analyst targets and consensus ratings vary by data provider, and the recent reverse stock split complicates comparisons.
MarketBeat: “Hold” consensus, $20 average target (wide range)
MarketBeat lists Tilray with a consensus rating of Hold, based on 7 analyst ratings, and a consensus price target of $20.00. MarketBeat also reports a wide target range from $10.00 (low) to $30.00 (high). MarketBeat
TipRanks: “Moderate Buy” consensus, but an average target below the current price
TipRanks, using a smaller sample, shows a Moderate Buy consensus (based on two Buys and one Hold) and reports an average price target of $7, which implies downside from today’s trading level. TipRanks
TipRanks also noted that TD Cowen analyst Robert Moskow reiterated a Buy and assigned a $10 price target, which (as presented) also sits below current levels. TipRanks
Why the gap? Reverse split math and timing effects
One reason investors can see confusing targets across services is that Tilray completed a 1-for-10 reverse stock split earlier this month, raising the per-share price while reducing the share count.
A widely republished company release stated the reverse split became effective December 1, 2025, with split-adjusted trading beginning December 2, reducing shares outstanding from roughly 1.16 billion to 116 million and aiming to keep Nasdaq compliance while potentially improving institutional appeal. Stock Titan
When a reverse split happens, price targets, historical per-share metrics, and chart levels must be “split-adjusted.” Not all services update at the same pace, so targets can look unusually high or low depending on timing.
Tilray’s fundamentals: a diversified business, but cannabis remains the headline lever
Tilray is not just a cannabis pure-play. It has built a diversified consumer package goods footprint spanning cannabis, beverage alcohol, distribution, and wellness.
In its FY2025 annual report (fiscal year ended May 31, 2025), the company reported record total net revenue of about $821 million, gross profit of $241 million, and cash and marketable securities of $256 million, while also noting it reduced total debt by roughly $100 million. SEC
The same report breaks out major revenue lines across segments, showing meaningful contributions beyond cannabis, including beverage and distribution. SEC
Why that matters for TLRY stock right now: diversification can stabilize revenue, but the valuation and day-to-day trading are still heavily driven by U.S. regulatory optionality. On reform headlines, investors often treat TLRY less like a slow-and-steady CPG story and more like a levered policy bet.
Key risks investors are weighing today
The December 15 story around Tilray stock is compelling—but it’s also risky. Here are the main uncertainties being priced in:
- Policy execution risk: Reports may drive rallies, but timelines and outcomes can change quickly. Reuters previously noted a White House official saying no final decisions had been made on rescheduling. Reuters
- “Sell the news” volatility: Monday’s pullback is a reminder that the market can fade reform trades if confirmation doesn’t arrive quickly. Investopedia
- Post–reverse split dynamics: Reverse splits can remove listing pressure, but they don’t change underlying business performance overnight—and they can coincide with sharp sentiment swings. Stock Titan
- Forecast dispersion: When consensus targets diverge sharply across major platforms, it often signals high uncertainty rather than a clear opportunity. MarketBeat
What to watch next for Tilray (TLRY) stock
For the next 24–72 hours, TLRY will likely trade off developments and language more than spreadsheets. Key catalysts to monitor:
- Any official update on federal scheduling (White House, DEA-related process cues, or credible reporting that clarifies timing). Investopedia
- Sector sympathy moves (Canopy Growth, SNDL, and cannabis ETFs often move with TLRY on reform headlines). Reuters
- Whether technical levels hold after the post-surge pullback, including widely watched long-term trend gauges like the 200-day moving average. Finviz
- Upcoming earnings window: several outlets and platforms peg Tilray’s next results for early-to-mid January 2026 (dates vary by service), making the next report a major “fundamentals check” after the policy-driven volatility. Investors
Bottom line
Tilray Brands stock is reacting to a rare combination of forces: a recent reverse split that reshaped per-share optics, a sudden surge in reform optimism, and a fast return of uncertainty as the market waits for confirmation.
On December 15, TLRY is essentially trading like a live referendum on U.S. cannabis policy. If clarity emerges, the stock could move sharply again. If headlines fade or timelines slip, volatility and profit-taking can remain the dominant theme—exactly what Monday’s pullback is signaling.
