TMC Stock Forecast: Can The Metals Company’s Deep‑Sea Bet Stay Afloat After a Huge Q3 Loss?

As of 7 December 2025, TMC the metals company Inc. (NASDAQ: TMC) sits at the intersection of speculative hype, national‑security politics, and very real financial strain. The deep‑sea mining hopeful has delivered one of the wildest stock rides of 2025, rallying from penny‑stock levels to double digits before giving back a large chunk of those gains. At the same time, it has posted a massive quarterly loss, secured a new strategic investor in the form of the Swiss National Bank, and attracted both bullish and cautious analyst coverage. ^[1]

Below is a detailed look at the latest TMC stock news, forecasts and analysis as of 7 December 2025.

TMC stock today: from penny stock to policy play

At the close on 5 December 2025, TMC shares traded around $7.59, implying a market capitalisation of roughly $3.2 billion. Over the last 12 months the stock has moved between $0.72 and $11.35, a range that tells you almost everything you need to know about the volatility here. ^[2]

A recent analysis from Nasdaq noted that TMC had been up as much as 913% year‑to‑date and hit over $11 per share in October, before sliding about 42% from that recent peak. ^[3] Short‑term moves have been equally violent:

On 2 December, a trading‑oriented piece from StocksToTrade highlighted a 14% intraday surge to about $6.65, driven by “strong investor sentiment” and positive commentary around TMC’s role in the critical‑minerals supply chain. ^[4]
Earlier in the week, Yahoo Finance reported a 9.7% single‑day drop to roughly $6.28 after four straight up days, attributing the move largely to profit‑taking in an overheated name. ^[5]

In other words, TMC has evolved from obscure SPAC remnant to high‑beta macro story: a leveraged bet on U.S. critical‑minerals policy, deep‑sea mining regulation, and investor appetite for speculative growth stocks.

Q3 2025: enormous loss, complex accounting, solid liquidity

The biggest hard data point for TMC right now is its third‑quarter 2025 corporate update, released on 13 November. The headline numbers were stark:

Net loss: approximately $184.5 million for Q3 2025, versus $20.5 million in Q3 2024.
Loss per share:‑$0.46 basic and diluted, up from ‑$0.06 a year earlier.
Operating loss: about $55.4 million for the quarter.
Cash used in operations (Q3): roughly $11.5 million.
Cash balance (30 September 2025): about $115.6 million, with total liquidity (including subsequent warrant exercises and other funding) cited around $165 million. ^[6]

The loss was much worse than analysts expected. An earnings summary from Investing.com flagged an EPS of ‑$0.46 versus a forecast of roughly ‑$0.05, contributing to an 8.3% drop in the share price on the day of the release. ^[7]

Crucially, much of that huge bottom‑line loss came from non‑cash, non‑recurring items:

General and administrative expenses ballooned from about $8.1 million to $45.7 million, driven largely by share‑based compensation linked to one‑off equity grants and higher legal and consulting costs.
The royalty liability on TMC’s future production was re‑measured following two economic studies, increasing from $14 million to $145 million and adding around $131 million to reported expenses. ^[8]

On the balance sheet, the company now shows negative equity of about $40.6 million, with total liabilities exceeding total assets due largely to the royalty and warrant liabilities and accumulated deficits. ^[9] That combination—substantial liquidity but negative equity and steep accounting charges—is part of why risk‑tolerant investors see opportunity while more conservative investors see a flashing warning sign.

The U.S. pivot, Trump’s executive order and the permitting race

What makes TMC different from a typical money‑losing small‑cap is its position at the centre of U.S. critical‑minerals strategy. In 2025 the company executed a “pivot to the United States”, moving to pursue permits under U.S. law rather than relying solely on the International Seabed Authority (ISA). ^[10]

Key developments:

In Q1 2025, TMC USA submitted the first‑ever commercial recovery permit application for deep‑sea minerals under U.S. law, covering about 25,160 square kilometres in the Clarion‑Clipperton Zone (CCZ) of the Pacific. It also filed two exploration license applications for areas containing an estimated 1.64 billion wet tonnes of polymetallic nodules. ^[11]
The applications were submitted under the Deep Seabed Hard Mineral Resources Act (DSHMRA). The U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) subsequently confirmed that TMC’s exploration applications were fully compliant and that the company holds priority rights over both exploration areas, although a full inter‑agency review and environmental impact process still lie ahead. ^[12]
In mid‑2025, President Donald Trump signed an executive order titled “Unleashing America’s Offshore Critical Minerals and Resources”, directing agencies to expedite permitting for seabed mineral projects viewed as vital to national security and supply‑chain resilience. Alliance Global Partners described this shift as a “significant de‑risking event” for TMC’s U.S. pathway. ^[13]

On the economic side, TMC released two major technical and economic studies in August 2025:

A Pre‑Feasibility Study (PFS) for the NORI‑D project that estimated a net present value (NPV) of about $5.5 billion and declared 51 million tonnes of probable mineral reserves for deep‑sea polymetallic nodules—described as a world‑first for this type of resource.
An Initial Assessment for the rest of its NORI and TOML areas, putting their NPV around $18.1 billion, for a combined NPV of $23.6 billion across the portfolio. ^[14]

Both the Q3 press release and the earnings call reiterated a target of commercial production in Q4 2027, subject to permits, with projected strong EBITDA margins and first‑quartile costs per tonne of nickel equivalent. ^[15]

Another important political tailwind: in November 2025, the U.S. Department of the Interior added copper to its Critical Minerals List, meaning all four metals in TMC’s nodules—nickel, cobalt, manganese and copper—now qualify as U.S. “critical minerals”. ^[16]

Against that, the regulatory picture is still messy. The ISA has not yet finalised exploitation rules, and there is ongoing debate about whether U.S. permits alone are sufficient to mine in international waters. ^[17] That unresolved question is one of the biggest existential risks to the entire TMC investment thesis.

Strategic investors vs heavy insider selling

The most eye‑catching ownership headline of the past few days came on 5 December, when MarketBeat reported that the Swiss National Bank had bought around 445,500 TMC shares in Q2, a roughly $2.94 million position representing about 0.12% of the company. Other institutional investors such as Old West Investment Management, Baird Financial and Geode Capital also increased their stakes earlier in the year. ^[18]

Yet at the same time, insiders have been cashing out aggressively:

Chief Strategy Officer Erika Ilves sold about 1.59 million shares at an average price near $5.77, trimming her position by more than half.
Chief Development Officer Anthony O’Sullivan sold 100,000 shares across two transactions on 28 November and 2 December at roughly $6.51 and $6.77, respectively.
In total, insiders have sold around 1.69 million shares worth just under $9.9 million over the past 90 days, though insiders still own about 27–45% of the company, depending on the data source. ^[19]

Quiver Quantitative’s tracking of hedge‑fund flows shows a similar push‑pull dynamic at the institutional level. Some funds, like Millennium Management, cut their exposure sharply, while others—Sourcerock Group, Driehaus Capital and Morgan Stanley, among others—added millions of shares in Q3 2025. ^[20]

Collectively, these moves paint a picture of a stock that has become a crowded, controversial institutional trade, not just a retail meme.

Analyst ratings and TMC stock forecasts: wide range, modest near‑term upside

Analyst and model‑based forecasts for TMC diverge, but most now cluster around only modest upside (or slight downside) from current levels over the next 12 months, even while acknowledging huge long‑term optionality.

Here is how major data providers line up as of 7 December 2025:

Traditional Wall Street research

StockAnalysis.com compiles four covering analysts and labels the consensus rating “Strong Buy”, but the average 12‑month price target is just $6.94, implying around 8.5% downside from the recent $7.59 price. The targets range from $3.75 on the low end to $11 on the high end. Recent moves include HC Wainwright raising its target from $7.25 to $7.50 (Strong Buy) and Wedbush’s Daniel Ives upgrading TMC from Hold to Buy with a target of $11. ^[21]
MarketBeat’s forecast, based on five analysts, is more neutral: it labels TMC a “Hold”, with 3 Buy, 1 Hold and 1 Sell rating. The average target is $7.42, a roughly 2.3% projected downside from $7.59, again with a $3.75–$11 range. Zacks recently upgraded TMC from Strong Sell to Hold, while Weiss Ratings maintains a Sell (D‑) view. ^[22]
StocksGuide aggregates six 2026 price targets, showing an average of $7.65, only about 0.8% above the current price, and classifies TMC as “Buy” in 89% of analyst opinions and “Hold” in 11%, with no explicit Sell calls in that sample. ^[23]

Meta‑aggregators and alternative‑data models

ValueInvesting.io uses a broader universe of nine analysts and arrives at a consensus “Buy” rating with an average target of $8.98, implying around 18% upside from $7.59. Its documented range of $6.57–$12.60 suggests that even optimists see a wide cone of uncertainty around fair value. ^[24]
AltIndex, which leans heavily on alternative data such as social‑media momentum and web‑traffic trends, is more cautious. It currently rates TMC a “Hold” and extrapolates its AI target price to about $7.63 in 2026 and $9.63 by 2030, essentially modelling steady but not explosive long‑term appreciation from current levels. ^[25]

Put together, these forecasts reflect a tension between excitement and gravity: analysts broadly acknowledge TMC’s strategic position and enormous resource base, but many feel the stock has already priced in a big chunk of that promise after its 2025 run‑up.

The bullish case: first mover in a strategically crucial resource

Bullish analysts and commentators typically point to four main pillars:

Enormous resource with strong economics
The NORI‑D PFS and broader portfolio assessment suggest potential NPVs in the tens of billions of dollars, with first‑quartile cash costs and EBITDA margins north of 40% at steady‑state production for the flagship project. ^[26]
All four nodules metals now on the U.S. Critical Minerals List
With copper’s addition in November, nickel, cobalt, manganese and copper—TMC’s four key outputs—are all officially categorised as “critical” for U.S. national security and energy transition. ^[27]
Regulatory and geopolitical tailwinds
Trump’s executive order instructing agencies to accelerate seabed mining permits, NOAA’s confirmation that TMC’s exploration applications are compliant, and the broader push to reduce dependence on Chinese processing capacity all play directly into TMC’s narrative. ^[28]
Strategic partnerships and funding
The $85.2 million strategic investment from Korea Zinc—a global leader in non‑ferrous refining and precursor cathode materials—has been touted as both a financial lifeline and a downstream validation of TMC’s feedstock. Combined with 2025 direct offerings and warrant exercises, this helped lift the company’s cash from under $4 million at year‑end 2024 to well over $100 million by late 2025. ^[29]

On recent earnings calls, CEO Gerard Barron and CFO Craig Shesky have reinforced a long‑term vision of commercial production starting in 2027, targeting roughly $600 in revenue per dry tonne of nodules at steady state and projecting attractive margins if everything goes to plan. ^[30]

For bullish investors, TMC is essentially a leveraged call option on the world deciding that deep‑sea mining is both legally acceptable and politically necessary.

The bearish case: dilution risk, negative equity and unresolved rules

Skeptics counter with a list of risks that is just as long:

No commercial revenue and heavy cash burn
TMC is still pre‑revenue. Through the first nine months of 2025 it recorded an operating loss of about $95.3 million and a net loss of roughly $279.4 million, more than four times the prior‑year period. ^[31]
Negative equity and reliance on capital markets
The company’s shareholders’ equity stood at around ‑$40.6 million at the end of Q3 2025, even after significant capital raises and warrant exercises. That, in turn, underscores how much of the business is being financed by new investors rather than internal cash generation. ^[32]
Ongoing dilution
To fund operations and studies, TMC has repeatedly issued new shares, warrants and strategic placements. 2025 saw large capital injections via a Korea Zinc placement, registered direct offerings, at‑the‑market issuance and warrant exercises. While this has solved near‑term liquidity, it has also diluted existing shareholders and is likely to remain part of the story until (and unless) the project becomes self‑funding. ^[33]
Regulatory and legal uncertainty
Even with a friendlier U.S. regime, the ISA has not finalised exploitation regulations, and the legality of the U.S. unilaterally authorising mining in international waters remains contested. Delays or adverse changes here could push out TMC’s 2027 start date or halt the plan entirely. ^[34]
Environmental and reputational risk
Deep‑sea mining is one of the most controversial ESG topics globally. If public or political sentiment swings harder against it, financiers and offtakers could step back, even if formal permits are obtained. (This is widely discussed in policy circles, though the specific articles cited here focus on regulatory mechanics rather than environmental activism.) ^[35]

These factors explain why some rating agencies, like Weiss Ratings, still flag TMC as a Sell, and why alternative‑data providers like AltIndex recommend a cautious Hold, even as target prices suggest moderate upside over a multi‑year horizon. ^[36]

Sentiment and social buzz: momentum with a political flavour

Social‑media data shows that TMC has become a highly discussed “story stock” rather than just another small‑cap miner. Quiver Quantitative’s summary of recent X (Twitter) chatter highlights:

Intense debate over TMC’s role in U.S. deep‑sea mining negotiations and national‑security strategy.
Excitement over sharp percentage moves and “dip buying” opportunities after pullbacks from the October peak.
Frequent references to analyst upgrades and to the executive order as a catalyst. ^[37]

For traders, this mix of macro narrative, political drama and high volatility is the ideal breeding ground for big short‑term swings—both up and down.

So is TMC stock a future “millionaire maker”?

Plenty of commentary now frames TMC as a potential “millionaire maker” stock, especially in the wake of its 2025 run and the Trump administration’s explicit embrace of seabed minerals. But even bullish analyses from sources like Nasdaq and StockAnalysis describe TMC as a high‑risk, speculative play that is still years away from proving out its business model. ^[38]

A balanced way to think about it as of 7 December 2025:

What’s going right:
- Strong cash and liquidity position for a pre‑revenue explorer.
- Powerful political and policy tailwinds in the U.S.
- Formal recognition of all four nodules metals as “critical minerals”.
- World‑first declaration of deep‑sea mineral reserves and promising economics on paper.
- Growing interest from strategic and institutional investors.
What still has to go right:
- Final, durable U.S. and international permits for large‑scale ocean mining.
- Successful scaling from pilot operations to commercial production without major technical or environmental setbacks.
- Continued access to capital without crippling dilution.
- Commodity prices that justify the projected NPV and margins.

If you strip away the headlines, TMC today looks less like a typical value stock and more like a binary‑ish engineering and policy experiment: if the permitting and technology work out anywhere close to plan, current prices could prove cheap over a 5–10 year horizon; if they do not, equity holders could be left with little despite the current multi‑billion‑dollar valuation.

Bottom line

As of 7 December 2025, TMC stock embodies the trade‑off between massive upside potential and equally massive execution and regulatory risk:

The latest quarter shows widening losses, negative equity and a business that still depends on external funding, but also ample near‑term liquidity and accelerating technical progress. ^[39]
Analysts are broadly positive but not unanimous, with average 12‑month price targets clustered between $6.9 and $9, only modestly different from the current price, while longer‑term models see room for higher valuations if TMC reaches commercial production. ^[40]
Ownership trends show new strategic and institutional money coming in even as insiders take profits, underscoring how controversial and crowded the trade has become. ^[41]

For news readers and investors alike, the key from here will be tracking three things over the coming quarters:

Concrete steps in the U.S. permitting process (NOAA decisions, environmental impact statements, and any legal challenges).
The pace of cash burn versus new funding, and whether dilution stabilises.
Evidence that the projected economics from TMC’s studies are actually achievable at pilot and then commercial scale.

Until those uncertainties are resolved, TMC will likely remain what it is today: a headline‑grabbing, high‑volatility stock at the frontier of both mining technology and mining regulation—not a safe harbour, but a speculative vessel for those comfortable sailing in deep, uncharted water.