NEW YORK, Dec. 27, 2025, 6:40 a.m. ET — Market closed (Weekend)
TMC the metals company Inc. (NASDAQ: TMC) is heading into the weekend spotlight after a steep Friday pullback in a market that’s otherwise finishing the year near record territory.
Shares of TMC ended the last regular session (Friday, Dec. 26) at $6.82, down 10.5% on the day, after swinging between roughly $6.61 and $7.68. Trading volume ran about 11.5 million shares, well above what investors typically see in calm tape. After the close, the stock tickled higher in extended trading to around $6.90 (prices can vary by venue). [1]
The timing matters: U.S. markets are closed today (Saturday) and will reopen Monday, so any positioning around TMC now is about what could hit headlines before the opening bell—and how traders may react when liquidity returns.
Why TMC stock moved: volatility is the story, not a single headline
TMC’s Friday drop followed a holiday-thin session across Wall Street, with major indexes drifting slightly lower. Reuters described the broader tape as a “catching our breath” day after a strong run, quoting Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at Carson Group, who pointed to seasonal dynamics and the tendency for low-volume periods to exaggerate moves. [2]
For TMC specifically, the last 48 hours of widely circulated coverage hasn’t centered on a fresh operational milestone. Instead, it’s been about regulatory process—and the market’s ongoing habit of trading TMC as a high-volatility, headline-sensitive “critical minerals” proxy.
One example: a widely shared recap published Thursday highlighted that TMC had closed at $7.62 on Wednesday (Dec. 24) as investors reacted to perceived progress around deep-sea mining reviews, before Friday’s selloff erased those gains. [3]
That two-step—pop on narrative, drop on positioning—isn’t rare in TMC. It’s also why investors tend to track this name with a catalyst calendar rather than a “set it and forget it” mindset.
The real catalyst calendar: NOAA hearings and a formal public-comment clock
The most concrete, check-the-calendar development for TMC bulls and bears alike is the U.S. regulatory pathway tied to deep seabed mining oversight.
NOAA’s deep-seabed mining page lists TMC USA applications and points to a public comment period running from Dec. 23, 2025 through Feb. 23, 2026, with virtual public hearings scheduled for Jan. 27–28, 2026. [4]
The Federal Register notice adds key procedural details investors should actually care about (because markets care about process):
- Comments close Feb. 23, 2026
- Hearings are Jan. 27 and Jan. 28 (3 p.m. to 7 p.m. ET each day)
- Registration deadline: Jan. 21, 2026 (5 p.m. ET)
- Capacity limits for attendance are spelled out (which can affect public participation and media coverage). [5]
In plain English: the “deep-sea mining debate” is not just vibes—there’s a live docket with dates, filings, and public scrutiny. That matters because TMC’s valuation has long been tied to whether it can move from exploration and studies into permitted commercial reality.
Wall Street targets: upside exists, but the range is wide
Analyst forecasts on TMC remain directionally optimistic, but the dispersion is a warning label.
- MarketBeat shows an average 12‑month price target of $7.42 (about 8.75% upside from around $6.82), with targets ranging from $3.75 (low) to $11.00 (high). [6]
- TipRanks lists an average target of $8.33, describing the consensus as “Strong Buy” based on the analysts it tracks, with a high forecast of $11.00 and a low of $6.50. [7]
That gap between the low and high targets tells you what professionals already know: TMC is a “path dependency” stock. The price you get depends heavily on which path the world takes—regulatory green lights, technology execution, financing conditions, and commodity cycles.
Options and short interest: why TMC can gap up or down fast
TMC isn’t just traded; it’s often traded hard—and that’s a different beast.
A recent Trefis note argued that earlier spikes in TMC had the fingerprints of a technically driven squeeze, pointing to heavy call activity and elevated short positioning, while also stressing that the company is pre-revenue and that big moves can occur without a new fundamental milestone. [8]
Separately, MarketBeat’s short-interest page (updated this weekend) shows that as of Dec. 15, 2025, TMC had about 28.27 million shares sold short, representing roughly 9.44% of the public float, with an estimated 2.9 days to cover based on average trading volume. [9]
When a stock combines:
- meaningful short interest,
- an active options market, and
- an emotionally charged narrative (critical minerals + geopolitics + environmental controversy),
you can get violent price discovery—especially around catalysts like hearings, government filings, or macro commodity jolts.
Fundamentals checkpoint: what the company says it’s building toward
Investors also need to keep the long game visible through the daily noise.
In a 2025 company release about pursuing permits under the U.S. seabed mining code, CEO Gerard Barron framed the strategy as a push for a clearer regulatory track, saying the company wants “a regulator with a robust regulatory regime” and a “fair hearing.” [10]
In its third-quarter 2025 corporate update, TMC discussed technical economic work and stated it expects to start commercial production in the fourth quarter of 2027 if it receives a commercial recovery permit. [11]
That “if” is doing a lot of work—and markets will keep repricing the stock as that conditional pathway gets clearer or murkier.
Macro backdrop: metals are hot, but 2026 risks are already being debated
TMC’s narrative is tied to battery and industrial metals, and the broader commodity complex has been a tailwind into year-end.
On Friday, Barron’s highlighted copper’s surge to fresh records and noted that Capital Economics economist David Oxley cautioned about the risk of weaker Chinese demand in 2026, even as near-term supply constraints remain tight. [12]
For TMC investors, that’s the macro tension in one sentence: demand optimism vs. cyclical reality—and TMC sits at the far end of the risk curve because it’s not simply a producer benefiting from today’s prices; it’s a company selling a future supply thesis.
What investors should know before the next session
Because markets are closed, the practical question becomes: what could matter between now and Monday’s open?
- Watch the docket, not the discourse. The NOAA/Federal Register timeline (comment period + January hearings + registration deadline) is the kind of structured catalyst that can pull in both supporters and critics—and generate headline bursts. [13]
- Expect thin-liquidity aftershocks. Reuters has emphasized that year-end conditions can amplify moves; strategists also flagged potential volatility tied to positioning and upcoming macro releases. [14]
- Macro events can still move single names. Reuters’ week-ahead piece quoted Michael Reynolds of Glenmede on how markets are still “handicapping” future Fed cuts, and flagged upcoming Fed minutes as a potential market mover—important because high-beta stocks often react more violently to shifts in rate expectations. [15]
- Treat TMC like an event-driven stock. With notable short interest and a history of sharp swings, Monday’s action can be driven as much by positioning and options dynamics as by any new headline. [16]
Bottom line
TMC stock enters the weekend after a sharp selloff to $6.82, a reminder that this is not a sleepy metals name—it’s a high-volatility, catalyst-sensitive trade wrapped around one of the most contentious resource questions on the planet. [17]
For Monday, investors should focus on three things: (1) regulatory timeline signals, (2) positioning/short-interest dynamics, and (3) broader market risk appetite as year-end macro narratives (rates, commodities, liquidity) continue to steer flows. [18]
References
1. stockanalysis.com, 2. www.reuters.com, 3. www.insidermonkey.com, 4. oceanservice.noaa.gov, 5. www.federalregister.gov, 6. www.marketbeat.com, 7. www.tipranks.com, 8. www.trefis.com, 9. www.marketbeat.com, 10. investors.metals.co, 11. investors.metals.co, 12. www.barrons.com, 13. www.federalregister.gov, 14. www.reuters.com, 15. www.reuters.com, 16. www.marketbeat.com, 17. stockanalysis.com, 18. www.reuters.com
