Tokyo’s AI-linked stocks took a clear hit on Monday, December 15, 2025, as a pullback in global tech sentiment spilled into Japan’s market and triggered a rotation away from some of the year’s biggest “AI trade” winners.
The headline move was in the Nikkei 225, which is heavily influenced by large, high-priced tech names. The index fell 1.31% to 50,168.11, even as the broader Topix gained 0.22% to 3,431.47—a split that underscored how concentrated the pressure was in AI- and semiconductor-related shares rather than across the entire market. [1]
Behind the day’s swings: renewed valuation concerns around global AI spending, a stronger yen, and an increasingly crowded calendar of central-bank decisions—particularly the Bank of Japan’s expected rate move later this week.
Tokyo market today: A tech-led pullback, not a broad selloff
By the close, the Nikkei’s decline was driven by a handful of AI-exposed bellwethers, while cyclical and financial names held up better—helping keep Topix in positive territory. [2]
That divergence matters for anyone tracking AI stocks on the Tokyo Stock Exchange (TSE): the AI theme in Japan is often expressed through a relatively concentrated set of stocks—especially chip equipment, semiconductor testing, and “AI infrastructure” plays—so market tone can look dramatically different depending on whether you’re watching Nikkei or Topix.
Biggest AI-linked movers in Tokyo on Dec. 15, 2025
Several high-profile names associated with AI infrastructure and semiconductors were among the session’s most notable decliners:
- Advantest (TSE: 6857), a key semiconductor test equipment maker, fell 6.4%. [3]
- SoftBank Group (TSE: 9984), widely treated as a proxy for “AI platform” exposure through its investments, dropped 6%. [4]
- Tokyo Electron (TSE: 8035), a major chip manufacturing equipment supplier, declined 1.1%. [5]
In parallel, Japanese banks outperformed—helped by growing conviction that the BOJ is preparing to tighten policy again. For example, Mitsubishi UFJ Financial and Sumitomo Mitsui Financial were both cited as rising more than 2% in the session commentary carried by Nasdaq/RTTNews. [6]
Why Tokyo AI stocks fell today: Global “AI trade” nerves meet BOJ week
1) A global risk-off tone hit AI-capex positioning
Reuters’ global markets wrap described a regional “risk-off” tone across Asia that looked like a spillover from a U.S. selloff in momentum/tech, with investors reining in risk ahead of major central-bank decisions and key data. [7]
Crucially for Tokyo’s AI complex, the same Reuters report highlighted that an “unwind in the AI-capex trade” weighed on risk appetite. [8]
That framework helps explain why Japan’s chip-testers and chip-tool makers—often treated as high-beta exposure to AI data-center buildouts—reacted sharply even without major Japan-specific negative headlines.
2) Higher rates pressure “long-duration” growth stocks
The other major theme is monetary policy. The BOJ’s December Tankan survey showed improving sentiment, but it also reinforced market expectations for a near-term rate hike—an environment that tends to challenge richly valued growth stocks.
According to Reuters, the Tankan headline index for big manufacturers rose to +15, the highest since December 2021, and big firms planned 12.6% capex growth for the fiscal year ending March 2026. [9]
At the same time, Reuters reported that sources expected the BOJ to raise the short-term policy rate to 0.75% from 0.5% at its Dec. 18–19 meeting. [10]
When investors believe the cost of capital is going up, the market often “re-prices” the most valuation-sensitive equities first—typically the same AI and semiconductor names that ran hardest earlier.
3) Yen strength adds another headwind for exporters and global tech proxies
Currency markets also leaned against AI-linked Japan equities.
Reuters reported the yen was about 0.5% stronger at 155.08 per dollar on Monday, extending gains as the BOJ week began. [11]
The same Reuters report noted Bloomberg had reported the BOJ could start selling its ETF holdings as early as January—another potentially meaningful signal for liquidity conditions and risk assets, if confirmed. [12]
Forecasts and analyst signals on Dec. 15: What the Tankan says about 2026 investment
The Tankan mattered today not just as a macro headline, but as a forward-looking read-through for Japan’s AI and semiconductor investment cycle.
Key forward signals reported by Reuters:
- Big manufacturers’ sentiment at +15 suggests corporate Japan is still functioning in expansion mode despite trade and demand concerns. [13]
- Expected capex growth of 12.6% in the fiscal year ending March 2026 points to continued spending plans—important for AI-related supply chains, including factory automation, robotics, and semiconductor equipment demand. [14]
- Firms expected conditions to worsen in the next quarter, reflecting caution about consumption and tariff risks—an uncertainty factor for cyclical tech demand. [15]
- One economist cited by Reuters said the Tankan “backs up” the dominant view the BOJ will hike in December, unless a major shock intervenes. [16]
- Capital Economics’ Abhijit Surya was quoted predicting the BOJ could push the policy rate up to 1.75% in 2027—a longer-term tightening path that, if it plays out, would keep valuation discipline in focus for high-growth tech. [17]
For Tokyo AI stocks, the implication is mixed: continued capex is supportive for AI infrastructure and automation, but the discount-rate environment is likely becoming less forgiving.
Japan’s chip-and-AI industrial push: Rapidus, NTT, and a “niche strategy”
One of the most consequential Japan-specific AI headlines on Dec. 15 came from Reuters reporting on Japan’s semiconductor revival strategy.
In an interview, NTT Chairman Jun Sawada argued Japan should pursue a “high mix, low volume” approach—focusing on specialized, higher-margin chips rather than trying to compete on scale and cost with giants like TSMC and Samsung. [18]
Reuters tied this directly to Rapidus, the government-backed chipmaker launched in 2022 that plans to start mass production of advanced semiconductors in 2027, described as central to a $65 billion government plan to boost the chip and AI industries. [19]
The report also said Japan’s top three banks planned to lend about 2 trillion yen (about $12.9 billion) to Rapidus. [20]
Why this matters for Tokyo AI stocks:
- It reinforces that Japan’s AI equity story isn’t only “US chip demand spillover.” It also includes industrial policy, domestic capex, and a multi-year attempt to rebuild semiconductor capability—potentially supporting a broader ecosystem of listed suppliers.
- It highlights a shift toward specialization, which could favor niche equipment makers, materials firms, metrology, and testing—categories that include several Tokyo-listed technology companies.
Corporate headlines to watch: Advantest and NEC
Advantest spotlights AI/HPC testing ahead of SEMICON Japan 2025
Even as Advantest shares fell sharply in the market, the company issued a major event-focused update.
A Dec. 15 GlobeNewswire release said Advantest will showcase its latest semiconductor test solutions at SEMICON Japan 2025, held Dec. 17–19 at Tokyo Big Sight. The company said it will highlight technologies for AI and high-performance computing (HPC), advanced memory, automotive, and more—explicitly naming solutions for “agentic AI/HPC devices” and “AI-powered test solutions,” among other product lines. [21]
For investors, this kind of event cadence can matter because:
- It keeps attention on the practical bottlenecks of AI scaling (testing, yield, advanced packaging, memory).
- It can shape near-term sentiment around order pipelines and product cycles—even when daily price action is dominated by macro.
NEC supports autonomous vehicle operations at Haneda Airport
Another Dec. 15 headline came from NEC-related distribution via MarketScreener/Publicnow: NEC said it is providing vehicle management equipment for autonomous vehicles in a restricted area of Tokyo International Airport (Haneda), supporting Level 4 autonomous towing tractors managed by ANA and Japan Airlines under an MLIT-related project. [22]
While not a “chip stock” story, it highlights how AI in Japan also shows up through:
- Smart infrastructure
- Mobility automation
- Systems integration—areas where large IT and industrial players can monetize AI through deployments rather than pure model development
What to watch next for Tokyo AI stocks this week
With Tokyo’s AI trade caught between strong structural narratives and short-term valuation/rate pressure, the next catalysts are unusually concentrated:
- Bank of Japan decision (Dec. 18–19, 2025)
Markets are heavily focused on whether the BOJ delivers the expected move to 0.75%, and—just as important—what guidance Governor Kazuo Ueda gives about the pace of future tightening. [23] - Yen direction and liquidity signals
A stronger yen can be a headwind for exporter-heavy tech positioning, while any credible signal on BOJ ETF sales could influence risk appetite and positioning. [24] - SEMICON Japan (Dec. 17–19)
Given the heavy overlap between AI optimism and semiconductor equipment/testing stocks on the TSE, product announcements and customer commentary around the event may influence short-term sentiment—particularly for names like Advantest. [25] - Global AI-capex sentiment
If the global market continues to question the payoff timeline of AI spending, Tokyo’s AI-linked equities—often treated as high-beta expressions of that theme—may remain volatile. Reuters flagged the region-wide “unwind in the AI-capex trade” dynamic, suggesting this is not purely a Japan story. [26]
Bottom line: Tokyo’s AI story is intact, but pricing is getting stricter
Tokyo’s AI stocks didn’t sell off on Dec. 15 because the AI thesis disappeared. Instead, the day looked like a classic collision of (1) stretched positioning and valuation sensitivity, (2) a central-bank week that raises the cost-of-capital question, and (3) global tech sentiment turning cautious.
The key for investors following AI stocks on the Tokyo Stock Exchange is to separate:
- Long-cycle drivers (AI data centers, memory, advanced packaging, automation, Japan’s chip policy push) from
- Short-cycle pricing forces (yen, BOJ path, global risk appetite, profit-taking and rotation)
As always, this is market commentary, not investment advice.
References
1. www.nasdaq.com, 2. www.nasdaq.com, 3. www.nasdaq.com, 4. www.nasdaq.com, 5. www.nasdaq.com, 6. www.nasdaq.com, 7. www.reuters.com, 8. www.reuters.com, 9. www.reuters.com, 10. www.reuters.com, 11. www.reuters.com, 12. www.reuters.com, 13. www.reuters.com, 14. www.reuters.com, 15. www.reuters.com, 16. www.reuters.com, 17. www.reuters.com, 18. www.reuters.com, 19. www.reuters.com, 20. www.reuters.com, 21. www.globenewswire.com, 22. www.marketscreener.com, 23. www.reuters.com, 24. www.reuters.com, 25. www.globenewswire.com, 26. www.reuters.com
