Toronto-Dominion Bank (TD) Stock Today, December 3, 2025: Buy, Hold, or Take Profits After a 54% Rally?

Toronto-Dominion Bank (TSX: TD, NYSE: TD) heads into its year‑end earnings week in a very unusual position:
the stock is hovering just below record highs, the business is still digesting a historic US$3+ billion anti‑money‑laundering settlement, and a new CEO is pitching a “Back to Winning” turnaround to investors who have already enjoyed a huge 2025 run.

This makes TD one of the most interesting—and arguably most polarizing—large‑cap bank stocks on the market right now.

1. Where TD stock stands on December 3, 2025

On the NYSE (TD):

• Recent price: around US$84–85
• 52‑week high: US$84.55 (set on December 2, 2025)
• 52‑week low: US$51.25 (December 20, 2024)
• The stock is roughly 65% above its 52‑week low and only a fraction below its high. ^[1]

On the TSX (TD.TO):

• Midday price today: about C$117.8
• 52‑week range: C$73.22–118.82
• Market cap: roughly C$200+ billion
• Trailing P/E ~10× and dividend yield around 3.5–3.6%. ^[2]

Performance:

• Simply Wall St estimates TD is up ~54.5% year‑to‑date and 55% over the last 12 months, with about 104% total return over five years on the TSX listing. ^[3]
• MarketBeat’s U.S. chart page shows a ~57% YTD return and ~48% 12‑month gain for NYSE:TD. ^[4]

In other words: TD is trading like a comeback story that investors have already largely believed—at least so far.

2. The immediate catalyst: Q4 2025 earnings tomorrow

TD reports Q4 2025 results on Thursday, December 4, 2025, before markets open, with an earnings call scheduled for 6:30 a.m. ET. ^[5]

Short‑term expectations are high:

• Consensus EPS for this quarter: about US$1.45 according to Benzinga’s earnings preview. ^[6]
• TD has beaten EPS estimates in every quarter so far this year:
  • Q1 2025: US$1.44 vs 1.38 expected
  • Q2 2025: US$1.37 vs 1.24
  • Q3 2025: US$1.60 vs 1.46 ^[7]

Intellectia’s aggregated estimates point to strong growth into early 2026 as well, with:

• Q4 2025 revenue forecast near 13.96 billion (up ~11% YoY) and EPS around 2.01,
• Further EPS growth into Q1–Q2 2026, with revenue and earnings expectations revised upward over the past three months. ^[8]

Across the Canadian banking sector, a Reuters preview notes that analysts expect strong Q4 results driven by capital‑markets and wealth‑management income, while warning that loan‑loss provisions and lofty valuations could create downside if guidance disappoints. ^[9]

Translation for investors:
After a 50–60% rally, the bar for “good enough” tomorrow is high. A mere in‑line print with cautious 2026 guidance could be enough to trigger profit‑taking.

3. Why TD ripped higher in 2025

3.1 From AML punching bag to rebound play

In October 2024, TD’s U.S. arm pleaded guilty to Bank Secrecy Act and money‑laundering conspiracy violations. U.S. authorities imposed penalties totaling roughly US$3.1 billion, including:

• US$1.3 billion FinCEN penalty, the largest ever against a depository institution under U.S. Treasury and FinCEN. ^[10]
• Over US$1.8 billion in criminal fines and forfeitures under the Department of Justice agreement, alongside an independent compliance monitor and strict remediation obligations. ^[11]

The settlement also led to:

• A multi‑year asset cap and tighter constraints on U.S. growth.
• Leadership and board changes, including accelerated retirement of former CEO Bharat Masrani and cuts to senior executive compensation. ^[12]

Initially, the stock was hammered. But 2025 has been about climbing out of that crater.

3.2 New CEO, new playbook: “Back to Winning”

Raymond Chun became CEO on February 1, 2025, earlier than originally planned, with a mandate to clean up AML issues and restore growth. ^[13]

Key moves since then:

• Compliance reset:
  • Appointment of Guidepost Solutions as independent AML monitor in February 2025.
  • A roughly US$500 million multi‑year budget earmarked for AML remediation and governance upgrades. ^[14]
• Capital reallocation:
  • Decision to exit TD’s ~10% stake in Charles Schwab, worth about US$15.4 billion, with proceeds helping fund share buybacks and strengthen capital under regulatory constraints. ^[15]

At TD’s Investor Day on September 29, 2025, Chun unveiled the “Back to Winning” plan, which includes: ^[16]

• Medium‑term financial targets
  • Adjusted ROE ≈ 16% by fiscal 2029, up from ~13% expected in 2026.
  • Adjusted EPS growth of 7–10% annually.
  • Efficiency ratio (cost‑to‑income) reduced from ~58% into the mid‑50s.
• Cost savings and restructuring
  • Up to C$2–2.5 billion in expense cuts, including ~C$500 million via automation and AI.
  • Branch and operations restructuring; TD has already announced some U.S. branch closures as it shifts to more advisory‑focused locations. ^[17]
• Capital deployment
  • A planned C$6–7 billion share buyback in 2026, on top of maintaining a competitive dividend.
  • Proceeds from Schwab stake sale funneled back into core banking and wealth businesses. ^[18]
• Growth mix
  • Heavier emphasis on wealth management, insurance and other fee‑based businesses rather than pure spread income.
  • Aggressive rollout of AI‑driven digital tools across retail banking, risk management and AML.

The plan has been praised by bullish commentators, including a December 2 Motley Fool piece arguing that the strategy and cost‑cutting drive could support further upside, and describing TD as “back to winning.” ^[19]

3.3 Earnings momentum plus sector tailwinds

TD’s actual execution in 2025 has broadly supported the story:

• Q1–Q3 2025: EPS beat consensus in all three quarters, with Q3 showing particularly strong revenue growth and a CET1 capital ratio near 14.8%, according to Q3 transcripts and slides. ^[20]
• Sector‑wide, Canadian banks have benefited from resilient credit quality, improving net interest margins and solid wealth‑ and capital‑markets income, helping justify higher valuations across the “Big Six.” ^[21]

Put simply: TD went from “regulatory train‑wreck” in late 2024 to “high‑quality bank with a credible turnaround plan” in 2025, and the stock price has raced ahead to reflect that.

4. Fresh headlines on December 3, 2025

Today’s news flow around TD is busy, and it mostly clusters into three themes: valuation debates, institutional flows, and inclusive‑growth initiatives.

4.1 Valuation debates: “Is it too late?” and narrative fair value

A prominent new Simply Wall St article—very literally titled “Is It Too Late To Invest In TD Bank After Its 54% Year To Date Surge?”—highlights how stretched the price feels after such a run, but still concludes TD screens as undervalued on their frameworks: ^[22]

• The stock is up 54.5% YTD and 55.4% over the past year, with 103.6% total return over five years.
• Their “Excess Returns” model estimates intrinsic value around C$162 per share, implying roughly 27% upside versus current TSX levels.
• TD trades on a P/E of about 10×, slightly below the bank industry average (~10.5×) and well under a broader peer group around 15–16×.

Separately, another Simply Wall St / Webull‑linked narrative around TD’s Indigenous banking expansion projects:

• 2028 revenue of about C$62.5 billion and earnings of C$14.2 billion, implying earnings normalisation down from around C$20.3 billion today and a modest revenue decline of roughly 0.5% per year in that scenario.
• A fair value around C$118.13, almost exactly in line with today’s TSX price. ^[23]

These two streams highlight the central tension in TD valuation right now:

• Some intrinsic‑value models still see 20–30% upside.
• Others, using more conservative earnings paths, say “this is roughly fairly valued at current prices.”

4.2 Institutional money: big funds are still buying TD

Today’s filings and recaps show ongoing institutional interest:

• 1832 Asset Management L.P. has increased its TD holdings to more than 22.5 million shares, making TD its 4th‑largest position and roughly 1.3% of the fund. ^[24]
• Westerkirk Capital Inc. disclosed a new position of 88,571 NYSE:TD shares in Q2, worth about US$6.5 million, making TD its 26th‑largest holding. ^[25]
• Across the NYSE listing more broadly, MarketBeat estimates institutional ownership around 52%, with net inflows of roughly US$10.6 billion over the last 24 months. ^[26]

Not every institution is buying—some large managers have trimmed positions after the rally—but the overall picture is that “smart money” remains heavily involved and, on balance, net positive.

4.3 Inclusive growth: Indigenous banking and community investments

TD is also pushing a narrative around inclusive growth, notably with Indigenous communities:

• A November 25 announcement detailed fee‑free access to the TD Minimum Chequing Account for Indigenous Peoples in Canada, part of a broader effort to tailor services to Indigenous customers. ^[27]
• TD’s latest Indigenous communities update notes over C$25 million in grants since 2022 to support education, housing and employment initiatives. ^[28]

Financially, these initiatives are small next to TD’s massive balance sheet, but they support the bank’s ESG and franchise‑strength story—which matters when your biggest problem is reputational damage from AML failures.

5. The AML overhang: risk not gone, just better understood

No matter how high the share price goes, TD is going to be living in the shadow of its U.S. AML scandal for years.

Key facts:

• TD admitted that between 2014 and 2023, its U.S. bank failed to maintain an adequate AML program, leaving trillions of dollars in transactions effectively unmonitored and enabling networks that pushed hundreds of millions of dollars in illicit drug‑related activity through TD accounts. ^[29]
• Regulators imposed:
  • About US$3.1 billion in combined penalties and forfeitures.
  • A multi‑year monitorship under an independent compliance monitor (Guidepost Solutions).
  • Growth restrictions, including caps on U.S. balance‑sheet expansion until regulators are satisfied. ^[30]

Fallout continues to ripple:

• Class‑action suits and employment claims in the U.S. allege that TD retaliated against or improperly dismissed staff connected to AML issues, and that the bank misled investors about risk prior to the settlement. ^[31]
• Compliance outlets estimate hundreds of millions in annual remediation costs, with TD itself signalling at least US$500 million of AML‑related spending in fiscal 2025 alone. ^[32]

For valuation, the key question is: how much “AML discount” remains in the stock now that it has already doubled from late‑2024 lows?

Many analysts believe that while the fines are fully behind the bank, the earnings drag and growth constraints from AML remediation are still being priced in—and are a major reason TD trades at a P/E discount to global financials, even after the rally.

6. What Wall Street and Bay Street expect next

6.1 Analyst ratings at a glance

You can think of today’s TD rating landscape as “constructive but not euphoric”:

• TSX:TD (Canada)
  • MarketBeat shows a consensus rating of “Hold” with an average 12‑month price target of about C$109.46, implying roughly 7% downside from current prices near C$118.
    Analyst mix: 5 Buy, 4 Hold, 1 Sell. ^[33]
  • TipRanks, using a slightly different analyst set, calls TD a “Moderate Buy” with an average target of C$117.94—basically flat versus the current price—within a range of roughly C$108–126. ^[34]
• NYSE:TD (U.S.)
  • Intellectia aggregates 12 analysts with a “Moderate Buy” consensus and a 1‑year average target around US$82.60, actually a bit below the current US$84–85 price. Target range: US$71–88.75. ^[35]
  • MarketBeat’s U.S. listing also categorizes TD as a “Moderate Buy”, with strong 1‑year and 5‑year returns but some softening in news sentiment and rising short interest from a very low base. ^[36]

Recent moves by major brokers (largely captured in Intellectia’s feed) show a mixed but generally positive pattern: ^[37]

• RBC Capital upgraded TD to Outperform on October 3, 2025, and raised its target to around US$120 equivalent for the TSX/NYSE cross‑listing, leaning into the turnaround and buyback story.
• BMO Capital kept an Outperform rating and bumped its target to C$107 → C$107–122 range in the wake of Investor Day, reflecting higher expected EPS and stronger U.S. retail earnings.
• Canaccord raised its target to C$122 while maintaining a Buy.
• Jefferies turned more cautious, downgrading TD from Buy to Hold even as it nudged the target from C$124 to C$125, arguing that Canadian banks generally now trade at “fair value” after the rally and face ongoing credit and growth headwinds.
• Barclays remains Underweight, even after lifting its target to around C$100, citing sector‑wide valuation and macro risks.

So the consensus picture is:

“Good bank, credible plan, solid dividend—but after this year’s surge, upside looks moderate unless TD convincingly outperforms guidance.”

6.2 Independent forecasts and AI‑driven models

Different platforms paint slightly different pictures:

• StockInvest.us (technical model for TSX:TD) sees TD in a strong upward trend, calling it a “strong buy candidate” in the near term.
  It estimates a “fair opening price” of C$117.52 for December 3 and projects a high‑probability range in the low C$90s over the next few months on the U.S. listing. ^[38]
• Intellectia AI’s valuation module notes that TD’s forward P/E around 13.6× sits noticeably above its 5‑year average of ~10.8×, flagging the stock as overvalued vs its own history, even though the analyst rating remains “Moderate Buy.” ^[39]
• Morningstar (in an April 2025 note) expects:
  • Long‑term loan growth around 3.5% annually,
  • Net interest income growth around 3.2%,
  • A “messy” 2025 due to AML expenses and balance‑sheet optimization, but a durable competitive position over the long haul. ^[40]

These forecasts boil down to: TD is expected to grow earnings, but not explosively, and you are paying a higher‑than‑historical multiple for that growth because the market has already repriced the stock as a “fixed” franchise.

7. Dividend profile: still a core part of the TD story

For many investors, TD is first and foremost a dividend stock, and that story remains intact.

On the TSX listing: ^[41]

• Forward dividend yield: around 3.5–3.6%.
• Latest quarterly dividend: C$1.05 per share.
• Payout ratio: roughly 36% of earnings, a conservative level that leaves room for buybacks and capital building.

On the NYSE listing: ^[42]

• Annual dividend: about US$3.02 per share.
• Dividend yield: roughly 3.6% at current prices.
• Track record:
  • 12 consecutive years of dividend increases,
  • ~6.8% average annual dividend growth over the last five years.

The combination of mid‑single‑digit yield + mid‑ to high‑single‑digit growth is exactly what many income investors look for in a large, regulated bank—especially one now promising C$6–7 billion in buybacks on top of that payout. ^[43]

8. Key risks going into 2026–2028

Under the hood of the “Back to Winning” marketing, there is a real risk checklist investors should keep in mind:

1. Regulatory and AML risk (still the biggest one)
   • The multi‑year monitorship, U.S. asset cap and ongoing class actions mean TD is still under unusually intense scrutiny. ^[44]
   • Any negative findings from the monitor, or additional issues unearthed by regulators, could lead to more penalties, tighter constraints or reputational damage.
2. Macro and credit risk
   • Reuters and other bank watchers keep highlighting Canadian consumer leverage, mortgage renewals and exposure to private credit and non‑bank financial institutions as key sector watchpoints. ^[45]
   • A weaker North American economy in 2026–27 could push up provisions for credit losses and pressure loan growth.
3. Valuation risk after a huge run
   • The Canadian “Big Six” now trade at forward P/E multiples well above their 10‑year averages; one Reuters note pegs the sector around 12.9× forward earnings, called “fully valued” by some analysts. TechStock²+1
   • TD’s forward P/E versus its own history (13.6× vs 10.8×) implies less margin for error. ^[46]
4. Execution risk on the cost‑cut / AI plan
   • TD is promising billions in cost savings, a structurally lower efficiency ratio, and higher EPS growth—all while simultaneously rebuilding AML and risk functions. ^[47]
   • Large tech and restructuring programs can overshoot on cost, undershoot on savings, or simply take longer than planned.
5. Balance sheet and cash‑flow concern flags
   • TipRanks’ AI summary flags high leverage and declining free cash flow as ongoing concerns relative to some peers. ^[48]

None of these are deal‑breakers for a bank of TD’s size and franchise quality—but they help explain why many analysts now sit in “Buy/Hold” territory rather than pounding the table.

9. So is TD stock a buy, hold, or sell right now?

This is where the rubber meets the road (and the compliance department waves sternly).

This article can’t tell you personally what to do with your money, but it’s fair to lay out the risk‑reward profile the market is implicitly arguing about on December 3, 2025.

The bull case in one breath

• You get a top‑tier North American bank with:
  • Deep retail and wealth franchises in Canada and the U.S.,
  • A 3.5–3.6% dividend yield with a long history of growth,
  • A credible CEO pushing C$2–2.5 billion in cost cuts, AI‑driven efficiency, and sizeable buybacks,
  • Solid capital (CET1 near the high end of peers) and a track record of beating earnings expectations in 2025. ^[49]

On that view, TD at ~10× trailing earnings and mid‑teens forward ROE targets still looks like a high‑quality franchise at a reasonable multiple, especially compared with some global peers trading at higher valuations. Models like Simply Wall St’s Excess Returns approach support this, with fair values well above current levels. ^[50]

The bear (or at least cautious) case

• After a 50–60% run, much of the “recovery and turnaround” story is arguably already priced in.
• Consensus price targets for both the TSX and NYSE listings now cluster around or even below today’s price:
  • C$109.46 average on MarketBeat vs C$117–118 spot price. ^[51]
  • ~US$82.6 average 1‑year target on Intellectia vs current US$84–85. ^[52]
• AML remediation, capital reallocation and U.S. expansion constraints are likely to drag on earnings and growth options for several years, and the sector as a whole is not cheap versus its own history. ^[53]

On that view, TD looks more like a high‑quality income stock to hold or buy on pullbacks, rather than a “must‑own bargain” at today’s levels.

10. How to think about TD heading into tomorrow’s earnings

For short‑term traders, the setup is simple but sharp:

• Expectations are high after three straight EPS beats and a huge YTD rally. ^[54]
• Any disappointment in:
  • Q4 numbers,
  • 2026 guidance,
  • Or colour around AML remediation / U.S. growth
    could easily produce a sharp pullback in a stock that has been a momentum favourite.

For long‑term investors, the decision is more philosophical:

• If you believe:
  • TD’s AML wounds are real but fixable,
  • The “Back to Winning” plan will deliver better efficiency, steady loan growth and growing fee income,
  • And Canadian banks will muddle through macro and housing risks,
    then TD still looks like a solid, dividend‑growing compounder, perhaps with modest capital‑gains upside from here. ^[55]
• If you worry that:
  • AML costs and U.S. restrictions will crimp profitability longer than investors expect,
  • Canadian consumer credit and real‑estate risks are under‑priced,
  • And the sector’s current valuation leaves little room for error,
    then the prudent stance might be “great bank, but wait for a better entry.” ^[56]

References

1. www.indmoney.com, 2. www.marketbeat.com, 3. simplywall.st, 4. www.marketbeat.com, 5. stories.td.com, 6. www.benzinga.com, 7. www.benzinga.com, 8. intellectia.ai, 9. www.reuters.com, 10. www.fincen.gov, 11. www.justice.gov, 12. www.reuters.com, 13. www.reuters.com, 14. www.reuters.com, 15. www.reuters.com, 16. www.td.com, 17. www.reuters.com, 18. www.reuters.com, 19. www.fool.ca, 20. www.investing.com, 21. www.reuters.com, 22. simplywall.st, 23. simplywall.st, 24. www.defenseworld.net, 25. www.marketbeat.com, 26. www.marketbeat.com, 27. stories.td.com, 28. www.td.com, 29. www.justice.gov, 30. www.reuters.com, 31. www.hcamag.com, 32. www.bankingdive.com, 33. www.marketbeat.com, 34. www.tipranks.com, 35. intellectia.ai, 36. www.marketbeat.com, 37. intellectia.ai, 38. stockinvest.us, 39. intellectia.ai, 40. global.morningstar.com, 41. www.marketbeat.com, 42. www.marketbeat.com, 43. www.reuters.com, 44. www.reuters.com, 45. www.reuters.com, 46. intellectia.ai, 47. www.reuters.com, 48. www.tipranks.com, 49. www.investing.com, 50. simplywall.st, 51. www.marketbeat.com, 52. intellectia.ai, 53. www.reuters.com, 54. www.benzinga.com, 55. www.reuters.com, 56. www.reuters.com