TOKYO, Jan 18, 2026, 01:55 JST — Market closed
- Toyota Motor shares ended Friday 1.18% lower, settling at 3,670 yen
- Activist Elliott turned down Toyota’s improved bid for Toyota Industries, maintaining pressure on governance issues
- Investors await potential shifts in bids and Toyota’s earnings report on Feb. 6
Toyota Motor Corp shares closed Friday down 1.18%, slipping to 3,670 yen. The decline followed renewed pushback from an activist investor over the automaker’s move to take Toyota Industries private. Despite the setback, the stock remains roughly 9% higher year-to-date. 1
Toyota faces awkward timing. The bid has morphed into a showdown over Japan’s effort to dismantle cross-shareholdings — where companies hold stakes in one another — aiming for clearer, fairer group deal pricing. It’s also a direct gauge of how committed Toyota is to cleaning up its tangled network of affiliates.
Toyota and its partners raised their bid for the forklift maker by 15% to 18,800 yen a share, valuing Toyota Industries around 5.6 trillion yen ($35 billion). Elliott Investment Management slammed the offer as still “very substantially” undervaluing the company, setting fair value above 25,000 yen. Toyota acknowledged Elliott’s comments and said it would keep an eye on developments. CFO Kenta Kon noted the higher price reflects shifts in the economic environment and Toyota Industries’ business since June. Stephen Codrington, founder of Codrington Japan, suggested the new offer might signal Toyota has “downgraded” its view of the business fundamentals. Toyota Industries shares were at 19,400 yen on Friday, roughly 3% above the bid. The tender offer— a fixed-price buyout to shareholders—closes Feb. 12. 2
For Toyota Motor, the issue goes beyond just a family legacy. Offering more incentives would lock up additional cash in an affiliate, intensifying the debate over capital returns versus restructuring. This comes as automakers pour money into electrification and software development.
The yen gained ground ahead of Monday after Japan’s Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama signaled Tokyo might take action to curb its slide. That move threatens exporters like Toyota, whose overseas earnings shrink when converted back home. 3
Some investors highlight the market’s signal: Toyota Industries shares are trading above the offer price, suggesting the tender remains tight unless Toyota bumps it up or shareholders give in. That friction keeps Toyota Motor’s stock on edge, despite steady overall auto demand.
Yet a higher bid isn’t assured. Should Toyota stick to its current offer and the gap with Toyota Industries’ market price stays wide, the tender might falter. That could leave the deal hanging, with Toyota facing scrutiny and no clear outcome.
Traders will be closely monitoring any moves from Elliott and other shareholders in the short term, along with whether Toyota Industries keeps trading above the bid as the tender deadline approaches. Signs of updated terms would immediately impact Toyota Motor’s stock.
Toyota will release its fiscal third-quarter results on Feb. 6, a deadline likely to push management into publicly discussing the buyout calculations and its wider capital strategy. 4
