December 26, 2025 — Treasury Wine Estates Limited (ASX: TWE) is ending 2025 with a plot twist worthy of a prestige drama: a bruising year for the share price, a sudden “billionaire investor” headline, and a management-led earnings reset that could define the stock’s next 12–24 months.
Because the ASX is closed for the Boxing Day holiday, the most recent trade is December 24, when TWE closed at A$5.39, up 7.58% on the day. Even after that pop, the stock is still down roughly 52% across calendar 2025, which tells you the rally was a spark—not the whole fire. [1]
What moved Treasury Wine Estates stock in late December
1) A new top shareholder: Olivier Goudet and Platin SARL (5.05%)
The biggest “fresh” headline into December 26 is the disclosure that Platin SARL and Olivier Goudet have become a substantial holder in Treasury Wine Estates—41,000,000 shares (5.05%).
The ASX Form 603 filing shows the structure clearly:
- 37,000,000 shares held via Platin SARL
- 4,000,000 shares held by Olivier Goudet directly [2]
The market reaction was immediate. Coverage around the disclosure tied the move to the sharp rebound in the stock in the final pre-holiday session. [3]
And here’s the part investors obsess over: the Form 603 also lists purchases stretching from October 7 through December 23, including sizeable buying around mid-December when the stock was under heavy pressure. [4]
2) The earnings reset: 1H26 profit outlook drops sharply
The bigger fundamental driver is not the new shareholder—it’s management’s message from the Investor Update and 1H26 Outlook released in mid-December:
- Group 1H26 EBITS expected at A$225m–A$235m [5]
- Penfolds 1H26 EBITS expected ~A$200m [6]
- Treasury Americas 1H26 EBITS expected ~A$40m, with 2H higher than 1H [7]
- Treasury Collective 1H26 EBITS expected ~A$25m, with 2H higher than 1H [8]
That’s not a gentle trim. It’s a clear signal that FY26 is being treated as a transition year—maybe two.
Why Treasury is tightening the screws in China and the US
Treasury’s update reads like a case study in how a global consumer brand can be “fine overall” and still get kneecapped by channel dynamics.
China: depletions up, but inventory and pricing are the problem
Treasury said China depletions grew 21% in the three months to October, but growth is expected to slow versus the original FY26 plan due to changes affecting large-scale banqueting. [9]
More importantly for investors, the company flagged two red-alert issues:
- Distributor inventory in China above optimal levels, especially ultra-luxury tiers
- Parallel imports disrupting Penfolds pricing [10]
The response is deliberately supply-side:
- Reduce China distributor inventory by ~0.4m cases (about A$215m NSR value) over two years starting 2Q26
- Restrict shipments contributing to parallel imports [11]
Translation: protect the brand, even if it hurts near-term volume and reported earnings.
US: California disruption plus a softer luxury wine market
In the US, Treasury points to a mixed picture:
- The US luxury wine segment (US$20+ retail) declined 2.4% over the latest 26 weeks (versus 3.5% growth cited earlier in the year) [12]
- Treasury Americas depletions are down 4.6% YTD nationally, even though they were up outside California [13]
- The California distribution transition remains a material headache, with negotiations continuing and a previously disclosed potential up to A$100m impact to FY26 plan NSR tied to remaining California inventory [14]
This is where “channel plumbing” matters. If distributors are stuffed with stock, suppliers ship less. If suppliers ship less, earnings compress—especially in a business with meaningful fixed costs.
The turnaround architecture: “TWE Ascent” and balance-sheet priorities
New CEO Sam Fischer’s program is named “TWE Ascent”, and it’s designed to do what these programs always try to do: simplify, cut costs, and buy time.
Key points from the company update:
- Target A$100m per annum in cost improvement
- Initial benefits expected to commence in FY27, with full realisation over 2–3 years [15]
The balance sheet is also part of the story, not an afterthought:
- Leverage expected to be ~2.5x at 1H26, and above the 1.5–2.0x target range for about two years while inventory is rebalanced [16]
- Management flagged levers including reviewing the dividend payout ratio, non-core asset sales, and reviewing planned capital investments [17]
- The on-market share buyback (up to A$200m) has been cancelled, after A$30.5m was completed in 1Q26 [18]
That sequence matters because Treasury had already paused the buyback and withdrawn FY26 earnings guidance earlier in the year amid US/China issues—so December’s cancellation is the “we’re not pretending anymore” endpoint of that arc. [19]
The impairment that reset sentiment: A$687.4m in the US
Before the December outlook hit, Treasury had already dropped a big non-cash bomb: it flagged an A$687.4m write-down of US assets, tied to weaker expectations for the American wine market, wiping out goodwill in the Americas business. [20]
Reuters also noted the move revived criticism that Treasury may have overpaid for prior US acquisitions, and highlighted the continuing disruption from the California distributor change, including an estimated sales impact previously flagged by the company. [21]
Even though impairments are accounting entries, they can still change the market’s mood because they’re a public admission: “our future earnings power is lower than we thought.”
Analyst forecasts and price targets: the market is split, but the “mid-5s” gravity is real
Analysts and data aggregators are not singing from one hymn sheet right now—partly because earnings forecasts are moving, and partly because different services ingest different broker sets and update schedules. But a pattern shows up across the feeds:
- Investing.com shows a Neutral consensus and an average 12‑month target around A$5.73, with estimates ranging roughly A$4.80 to A$8.55. [22]
- TipRanks shows an average target around A$5.92. [23]
- TradingView lists an analyst target around A$5.51, with a similar high/low band (A$8.55 / A$4.80). [24]
- Nasdaq (via Fintel-style aggregation) highlighted a price-target cut, with targets spanning roughly A$4.85 to A$8.98, and referenced a high dividend yield figure based on recent pricing. [25]
Meanwhile, Morningstar took a more valuation-driven stance: it cut its fair value estimate to A$8.50 (a 26% reduction), but argued the market reaction has been overly negative. Morningstar also cut its FY26 underlying EBIT forecast materially and said the US and China earnings base appears permanently lower than previously assumed—while still suggesting the stock screens undervalued at current levels. [26]
On the more cautious end, Capital Brief cited RBC Capital Markets commentary that Treasury’s first-half guidance was a significant miss versus expectations, and questioned whether cost-outs and other levers would be sufficient given leverage. [27]
A quietly important detail: US tariffs hit Treasury Collective earnings
Buried in Treasury’s outlook is a very “2025” kind of curveball: the company said US tariffs on wine produced in Australia and New Zealand are expected to impact Treasury Collective EBITS by ~A$10m, net of pricing actions that are expected to be insufficient to cover the full impact. [28]
That’s not the main driver of the investment case—but it’s exactly the sort of external friction that makes a turnaround year harder.
What matters next for TWE stock in 2026
The next phase for Treasury Wine Estates is likely to be judged on execution rather than storytelling. The catalysts (and risks) investors will be watching include:
- February 2026 half-year results: management has flagged that updates on TWE Ascent and other balance-sheet levers are coming with the FY26 half-year reporting cycle. [29]
- Inventory reductions: progress on the 0.4m case China inventory reduction plan and the 0.3m case US distributor inventory reduction outside California [30]
- Penfolds price discipline in China: whether restricting shipments actually reduces parallel import pressure and stabilizes price realization [31]
- US distribution “normalization”: whether the California transition stops being a recurring earnings tax, and whether the broader US luxury category stabilizes [32]
- Dividend and asset-sale signals: the company has explicitly pointed to reviewing payout ratios and potential non-core asset sales as levers to restore target leverage [33]
Bottom line
As of December 26, 2025, Treasury Wine Estates stock is bouncing off the mat—helped by a blockbuster new shareholder disclosure and a sharp pre-holiday rally. But the real investment debate is bigger than the headline: it’s whether FY26’s “reset” becomes a bridge to a healthier, leaner earnings base… or a prolonged slog through weaker demand, channel destocking, and balance-sheet constraint.
Either way, TWE has stopped trying to finesse the narrative. Now it has to do the hard thing: make reality improve.
References
1. www.intelligentinvestor.com.au, 2. announcements.asx.com.au, 3. www.proactiveinvestors.com, 4. announcements.asx.com.au, 5. company-announcements.afr.com, 6. company-announcements.afr.com, 7. company-announcements.afr.com, 8. company-announcements.afr.com, 9. company-announcements.afr.com, 10. company-announcements.afr.com, 11. company-announcements.afr.com, 12. company-announcements.afr.com, 13. company-announcements.afr.com, 14. company-announcements.afr.com, 15. company-announcements.afr.com, 16. company-announcements.afr.com, 17. company-announcements.afr.com, 18. company-announcements.afr.com, 19. www.reuters.com, 20. www.reuters.com, 21. www.reuters.com, 22. www.investing.com, 23. www.tipranks.com, 24. www.tradingview.com, 25. www.nasdaq.com, 26. www.morningstar.com.au, 27. www.capitalbrief.com, 28. company-announcements.afr.com, 29. company-announcements.afr.com, 30. company-announcements.afr.com, 31. company-announcements.afr.com, 32. company-announcements.afr.com, 33. company-announcements.afr.com
