NEW YORK, January 3, 2026, 12:38 ET
U.S. President Donald Trump said on Saturday that U.S. forces attacked Venezuela overnight and captured President Nicolas Maduro, in Washington’s most direct intervention in Latin America since the 1989 Panama invasion. The surprise operation has put the economic spotlight on oil, a key input for U.S. gasoline prices and inflation. 1
Oil prices matter for the U.S. economy because they feed into fuel bills for drivers and businesses, and can move inflation data watched by the Federal Reserve. Brent crude, the global benchmark, settled at $60.75 a barrel on Friday and U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) ended at $57.32, Reuters reported. 2
Venezuela’s supply picture was already shifting after Trump announced a blockade of oil tankers entering and leaving the country in December and the United States seized two Venezuelan oil cargoes. Those measures cut Venezuelan exports last month to about half of the 950,000 barrels per day (bpd) it shipped in November — bpd is a measure of daily exports — and pushed some vessel owners to avoid Venezuelan waters, rapidly increasing PDVSA inventories, Reuters reported. Two sources familiar with operations said PDVSA’s production and refining were operating normally after Saturday’s strike, but its administrative system has not fully recovered from a December cyberattack. 3
“Given how quickly this unfolded, the oil markets might be the only markets to respond,” said Brian Jacobsen, chief economic strategist at Annex Wealth Management in Brookfield, Wisconsin. 4
Crude oil is refined into gasoline and diesel, so shifts in the oil market can show up quickly in wholesale fuel prices. A sustained rise at the pump tends to squeeze household budgets and can spill into costs for goods moved by truck, rail and air.
Fuel is also a major cost for airlines and logistics firms, and it influences everything from freight rates to delivery fees. For manufacturers, higher energy costs can raise operating expenses even when demand is steady.
Beyond fuel, the episode adds a fresh geopolitical shock as investors start 2026 weighing other flashpoints and policy risks. Sudden jumps in uncertainty can lead companies to delay hiring and investment until costs and demand are clearer.
Venezuela holds about 303 billion barrels of reserves — around 17% of the global total — but production averaged about 1.1 million bpd last year, Reuters reported, after years of mismanagement, underinvestment and sanctions. Analysts told Reuters that genuine regime change could eventually bring more oil to the market, but production would take time to recover and forced transitions have rarely stabilized supply quickly. PDVSA has joint ventures that include partnerships with Chevron, Italy’s Eni and France’s Total, and it owns U.S.-based refiner CITGO; China is now the main buyer of Venezuelan crude and Venezuela owes about $10 billion to China, Reuters reported. 5
For now, traders will focus on how oil and fuel markets react when trading resumes, because that is the fastest channel into U.S. consumer costs. Any sustained move would also influence inflation expectations and the interest-rate outlook.
The next policy steps on sanctions, the tanker blockade and oversight of Venezuela’s oil sector will shape whether the episode tightens supply in the near term or adds barrels later. For U.S. consumers, the difference is likely to show up most clearly at the gas station.
