U.S. Economic Calendar Today, December 9, 2025: NFIB Optimism, JOLTS Job Openings and the Fed’s Big Decision

The U.S. economic calendar for today, Tuesday, December 9, 2025, is unusually important. A fresh reading on small‑business optimism, long‑delayed JOLTS job‑openings data, and the start of the Federal Reserve’s December 9–10 policy meeting are converging into a single narrative about a cooling but still resilient U.S. economy.

Below is a structured rundown of the U.S. economic calendar for 9.12.2025, followed by deeper analysis of what each release means for growth, jobs, inflation, and Fed policy.

Today’s Key U.S. Economic Events (All times Eastern)

06:00 – NFIB Small Business Optimism Index (November)
- Actual: 98.4
- Consensus: ~98.2
- Previous (October): 98.2 ^[1]
10:00 – Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) – October (and delayed September data)
- Agency: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)
- Status: First JOLTS release since the autumn federal shutdown; September’s canceled report will be folded into today’s release. ^[2]
- Market consensus: Job openings roughly 7.1–7.2 million, near August’s 7.2 million level. ^[3]
All day – Federal Reserve December FOMC meeting (December 9–10)
- Futures markets and major banks expect a third consecutive 25‑basis‑point rate cut, with significant focus on the Fed’s 2026 rate projections and tone (“hawkish cut” vs. dovish pivot). ^[4]
Other scheduled U.S. releases & Fed data flows (via FRED calendar) ^[5]
- 7:00–8:00 – SOFR averages, Secured Overnight Financing Rate, Overnight Bank Funding Rate, federal funds data
- 9:00 – JOLTS listed on FRED calendar (10:00 ET), Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update
- 9:30–10:15 – Kansas City Fed Policy Rate Uncertainty Index, Kansas City Fed Labor Market Conditions Indicators, Moody’s corporate bond yield averages
- 12:00–15:30 – Commercial paper statistics, H.15 Selected Interest Rates, Interest Rate on Reserve Balances

Together, these releases will help investors judge whether the U.S. is drifting toward a “soft landing” or something weaker as 2025 ends.

Small‑Business Sentiment Starts the Day: NFIB Optimism at 98.4

Small businesses employ roughly half of America’s private‑sector workforce, so their sentiment is a crucial early signal for Main Street hiring, spending, and investment.

What the NFIB index is showing

October 2025: The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index fell to 98.2 from 98.8, the lowest in six months, though still just above its 52‑year average of 98. ^[6]
NFIB reported that:
- Owners saw weaker sales and profits,
- Labor quality was the top problem, ahead of taxes or regulation,
- The Uncertainty Index actually dropped sharply, suggesting owners feel bad but slightly less confused about the outlook. ^[7]

Today’s new November reading

Market calendars show that November’s NFIB Small Business Optimism Index rose to about 98.4, a modest 0.2‑point uptick versus October, and slightly better than the consensus around 98.2. ^[8]

That’s hardly a boom, but it matters for three reasons:

Sentiment stopped slipping. After sliding from July’s 100.3 peak, the index is now drifting sideways just below 100 rather than collapsing, which fits a “slow‑growth, not recession” narrative. ^[9]
Hiring plans remain surprisingly firm. NFIB’s November jobs report (released December 4) shows:
- 33% of small‑business owners still have positions they cannot fill,
- A net 19% plan to create new jobs over the next three months – the highest reading of the year and similar to late 2024 levels. ^[10]
Labor shortages are easing, not disappearing. The share of owners citing labor quality as their single biggest problem has fallen from a spike in October but is still elevated, while compensation plans remain strong: about a quarter of firms expect to raise pay in the coming months. ^[11]

How markets are reading it

For the Fed, this combination – sub‑100 optimism but robust hiring plans and persistent labor complaints – suggests:

Demand is cooling but not collapsing,
Wage pressure is moderating, yet labor remains scarce in key sectors,
Small firms are still leaning toward expansion, not contraction.

On its own, the NFIB print is not a market‑moving report, but in today’s data‑starved environment (after weeks of shutdown‑related delays) even modest surprises can nudge bond yields or rate‑cut expectations at the margin. ^[12]

JOLTS October 2025: The First Official Openings Data Since the Shutdown

The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) is today’s headline macro release. It provides monthly estimates of job openings, hires, quits, and layoffs, and is one of the Fed’s favorite gauges of labor‑market tightness. ^[13]

Why this JOLTS release is unusual

The autumn federal government shutdown halted BLS data production for weeks.
As a result, BLS canceled the September 2025 JOLTS news release and postponed the October report. Both months’ data are being bundled into today’s release. ^[14]
The official schedule now shows October 2025 JOLTS set for 10:00 a.m. ET on December 9, 2025. ^[15]

This makes today’s JOLTS report the first fresh official openings data since late September, and markets are very focused on it.

Where the data are coming from

The most recent JOLTS figures we do have are for August 2025:

Job openings: roughly 7.2 million, virtually unchanged month‑to‑month and the lowest in about ten months. ^[16]
Hires and separations: both around 5.1 million, with quits and layoffs little changed. ^[17]

Earlier analysis by Reuters and the Joint Economic Committee highlighted that unemployed workers now outnumber job openings, with the ratio hovering around 1.0 vacancies per unemployed person, down from the post‑pandemic peak when openings far exceeded job seekers. ^[18]

In other words: the labor market has shifted from “overheated” to “merely tight”.

What markets expect for October

With no official numbers yet published for October, traders are leaning on private indicators and forecasts:

A widely cited trading note pegs October job openings around 7.2 million, essentially flat versus August, with any surprise decline viewed as confirmation that labor demand is cooling. ^[19]
Job‑posting analytics from firms like LinkUp show active listings plateauing in October, only 0.1% higher than September, which also points to a flat or slightly weaker JOLTS reading. ^[20]
Policy analysts at American Progress note that Indeed’s postings data show October job openings at their lowest level since early 2021, underscoring a clear slowdown in labor demand. ^[21]

Some FX and macro commentaries even talk about a “JOLTS double‑catch‑up”, where today’s report could contain two months’ worth of revisions and surprises at once, creating more volatility than usual around a single release. ^[22]

What to watch inside the JOLTS report

Beyond the headline openings number, markets and policymakers will look closely at:

The quits rate:
- A falling quits rate means workers feel less confident about finding better jobs, a classic sign of a softening labor market.
Layoffs and discharges:
- If layoffs remain low, the story is “no‑hire, no‑fire” rather than mass job losses – similar to what recent analysis has described. ^[23]
Sector detail:
- Prior JOLTS data showed declines in construction and federal government openings, while health care and leisure remained relatively strong. ^[24]

A JOLTS print showing significantly fewer than 7 million openings, or a pronounced drop in quits, would reinforce the case for continued Fed easing in early 2026. A surprise rebound in openings could push Treasury yields higher and make a more cautious Fed message more likely.

How Today’s Data Feed into the Fed’s December 9–10 Meeting

The Fed begins its two‑day FOMC meeting today with an unusually patchy data backdrop:

The October jobs report was canceled due to the shutdown; September’s report, released late on November 20, showed 119,000 payroll gains but unemployment rising to 4.4%, the highest in four years. ^[25]
ADP’s November 2025 private payrolls estimate showed firms cutting roughly 32,000 jobs, with particular weakness among small businesses. ^[26]
Inflation has moderated but is still not comfortably at the Fed’s 2% target, and the upcoming CPI release on December 10 will arrive during the meeting, not before. ^[27]

Market expectations

Across Wall Street:

Many strategists expect a 25‑basis‑point cut tomorrow – the Fed’s third cut of 2025 – but emphasize that Chair Powell may pair it with a “hawkish” message about the path in 2026. ^[28]
Global markets are already trading in risk‑off mode, with European and Asian stocks drifting lower and gold slightly weaker as investors brace for a potentially stern Fed tone. ^[29]

Against that backdrop:

Stronger‑than‑expected NFIB sentiment and a firm JOLTS report would make a dovish surprise less likelyand could limit how aggressively the Fed guides toward cuts in 2026.
Conversely, a sharp drop in job openings and more evidence of small‑business hiring fatigue would support arguments for additional easing if growth weakens further next year.

Either way, today’s NFIB and JOLTS readings will be heavily quoted in tomorrow’s FOMC statement and press conference Q&A.

Other Items on Today’s U.S. Calendar

Most of the remaining entries on the December 9, 2025 U.S. economic calendar are technical but still important for traders and macro watchers: ^[30]

SOFR and Overnight Bank Funding Rate updates (early morning):
These feeds drive pricing for floating‑rate loans and derivatives and help markets gauge how smoothly the Fed’s policy stance is transmitting through money markets.
Kansas City Fed Policy Rate Uncertainty Index and Labor Market Conditions Indicators (late morning):
- The uncertainty index tracks how predictable the path of policy rates appears to businesses and markets.
- The labor‑market index blends multiple series (employment, unemployment, wages, vacancies) into a single gauge of local conditions.
Moody’s Daily Corporate Bond Yield Averages, Commercial Paper, and H.15 Selected Interest Rates (midday to mid‑afternoon):
These releases update the cost of borrowing for companies and households and often feed directly into credit‑spread and yield‑curve analysis.

While none of these are likely to move markets on their own today, they fill in the picture the Fed is watching: tightening credit conditions, higher real borrowing costs, and slower but still positive growth.

The Bigger Picture: A Cooling Economy, Not a Collapse

Pulling all of this together, the story behind today’s U.S. economic calendar looks like this:

Growth is slowing but positive. Business groups such as The Conference Board have been projecting real GDP growth in the 1–2% range for 2025 and 2026, consistent with a soft landing rather than a deep recession. ^[31]
The labor market is loosening, not breaking.
- Job openings have drifted down to around 7.2 million, and the ratio of openings to unemployed has roughly normalized to 1:1. ^[32]
- Unemployment has risen to 4.4%, but layoffs remain relatively contained, and wage growth around 3.8% is still solid enough to support consumer spending. ^[33]
Small businesses are worried, but still hiring.
- NFIB’s optimism index is below the 2025 highs but above its long‑run average.
- NFIB’s own data show about one‑third of owners struggling to fill positions and nearly one‑fifth planning to add staff, a mix consistent with slower but ongoing expansion. ^[34]
Data gaps from the shutdown make today’s releases more important.
- The cancellation or delay of multiple Labor Department reports – including September JOLTS and the October jobs report – has left investors and policymakers flying partly blind, forcing more reliance on private datasets and high‑frequency indicators. ^[35]

That is why today’s NFIB and JOLTS readings are drawing outsized attention: they are among the few official lenses we have into the state of the U.S. labor market just hours before the Fed decides whether to push ahead with another rate cut – and how strongly to signal more easing in 2026.