WASHINGTON, March 13, 2026, 06:36 EDT
- The average 30-year fixed mortgage from Freddie Mac jumped to 6.11%, up from 6.00%. That’s the sharpest weekly climb since April 2025.
- February existing-home sales picked up 1.7%, while mortgage applications climbed 3.2%—both hinting at movement in the market.
- Oil prices and Treasury yields, both climbing on war concerns with Iran, are stirring inflation fears right as the spring housing season approaches.
Mortgage rates in the U.S. climbed back over 6% this week, snapping a short-lived drop below that threshold and logging their sharpest weekly jump in nearly a year. Rising oil prices and surging bond yields—spurred by the conflict with Iran—sent the average 30-year fixed rate up to 6.11%, compared with 6.00% just a week ago, according to Freddie Mac on Thursday.
This shift landed right when cheaper borrowing was starting to lure buyers off the sidelines for spring. Existing-home sales climbed 1.7% in February, reaching a 4.09 million annual rate. First-time buyers accounted for 34% of deals. Mortgage applications ticked up 3.2% for the week ending March 6—purchase applications jumped 7.8%.
Just two weeks back, the 30-year mortgage rate slipped to 5.98%—marking its first dip below the 6% threshold since September 2022. That break mattered, with economists framing it as a key psychological trigger for both buyers and sellers. Now, an 11 basis-point jump this week, or 0.11 percentage point, lands with more impact.
Mortgage rates typically shadow the 10-year Treasury yield, which hovered near 4.25% on Thursday, ticking up from roughly 4.13% the week before. A spike in oil—prices raced toward $100 after Iranian attacks on tankers—rekindled inflation worries and triggered a bond selloff, sending home-loan costs higher.
Freddie Mac chief economist Sam Khater noted the 30-year mortgage rate has “returned to last month’s level” at 6.11%, but pointed out buyers remain sensitive to rates in this territory. The 15-year fixed, a popular pick among homeowners refinancing, edged up to 5.50% from 5.43%. freddiemac.com
“Normally, softer labor and inflation data would help bring down mortgage rates,” said Hannah Jones, senior economic research analyst at Realtor.com. “But right now, headlines from the Middle East are pushing past those trends.” In February, unemployment edged up to 4.4%, payrolls dropped by 92,000, and consumer inflation stuck at 2.4%. Even so, markets pushed rates higher, pricing in renewed energy-driven inflation risks. Realtor
Mike Fratantoni, chief economist at the Mortgage Bankers Association, echoed that point. “Financial markets were volatile,” he noted last week. MBA data had the average contract rate for a 30-year loan within federal limits climbing to 6.19%, up from 6.09%. Even so, total purchase volume landed 10% ahead of where it was a year ago. MBA Newslink
Zillow Home Loans had 30-year fixed loans at 6.125% on Friday. Redfin reported new listings up 0.5% year over year, with sellers banking that rates around 6%—not 7%—might lure buyers again.
The market’s still unsteady. Since 2023, existing-home sales have barely budged from a roughly 4 million annual rate—far off the 5.2 million mark that’s more typical. February inventory came in at just 1.29 million homes, translating to a 3.8-month supply, according to NAR. That setup leaves mortgage rates likely stuck north of 6% and threatens to sap momentum from any early spring bounce, especially if oil prices and Treasury yields keep climbing. Lawrence Yun, chief economist at the National Association of Realtors, called housing affordability “improving,” but flagged stubbornly slow inventory gains. AP News
