U.S. stock futures were slightly higher early Monday, December 8, 2025, as Wall Street heads into a pivotal week dominated by the Federal Reserve’s final policy meeting of the year and a cluster of high‑profile earnings reports.
By mid‑morning premarket trade, futures on the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, and Dow Jones Industrial Average were all modestly in the green, extending a two‑week rebound that has carried major indices back to the brink of record territory. [1]
S&P 500, Dow and Nasdaq Futures: Modest Gains, Near Record Highs
Price action in equity futures is constructive but contained:
- S&P 500 futures were recently trading around 6,880–6,890, up roughly 0.1%–0.2% on the session. [2]
- Nasdaq 100 futures gained about 0.2%–0.3%, reflecting ongoing strength in big tech and growth names. [3]
- Dow Jones Industrial Average futures hovered near flat to slightly positive, with mini Dow contracts around 47,990–48,000. [4]
The moves come after two consecutive weeks of gains: the S&P 500 advanced about 0.3%, the Dow 0.5%, and the Nasdaq 0.9% last week, leaving the S&P 500 less than 1% below its all‑time intraday high. [5]
IG’s weekly “Market Navigator” notes that U.S. equities have been trading in a narrow, consolidating range as investors wait for clarity from the Fed, with the Nasdaq‑linked US Tech 100 index now just a few hundred points below its historic peak. [6]
In other words, futures are pointing to a cautiously optimistic open: gains are real, but the market is in “wait‑and‑see” mode rather than full‑blown risk‑on.
Fed Meeting in Focus: Markets Price in a Third Straight Rate Cut
The dominant story behind today’s futures action is the Federal Reserve’s two‑day FOMC meeting, which starts Tuesday, December 9, with a decision and press conference scheduled for Wednesday.
Traders are betting heavily on another 25‑basis‑point rate cut:
- TipRanks and Economic Times both highlight CME FedWatch probabilities of roughly 86%–88% for a quarter‑point cut at this week’s meeting, the last of 2025. [7]
Recent data underpin those expectations:
- The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, core PCE, rose just 0.2% month‑on‑month in September, in line with forecasts. [8]
- U.S. labor market numbers have turned more mixed, with weaker private‑sector job growth but still‑low continuing jobless claims, suggesting a slowing but not collapsing jobs backdrop. [9]
MUFG’s FX Daily Snapshot argues that the central bank is likely to deliver what amounts to a “hawkish rate cut”: a reduction in the policy rate paired with tough language about the pace of further easing. Their base case sees the Fed signaling that cuts will slow in 2026, even as markets almost fully price a third consecutive cut this week. [10]
For equity investors, that nuance matters. A cut that is paired with more cautious forward guidance could:
- Support valuations in the near term by lowering discount rates.
- But cap upside if Powell stresses that further cuts are conditional and data‑dependent, especially if growth and wages surprise to the upside.
Bond Market vs. Fed: Rising Yields Despite Easier Policy
Behind the calm in stock futures lies a more complicated story in U.S. Treasuries.
According to analysis from ShareCafe, the Fed has already cut its benchmark rate by a total of 1.5 percentage points since it began easing from a two‑decade high in September 2024, bringing the federal funds range down to 3.75%–4.00%. [11]
Yet, long‑term yields have moved higher, not lower:
- 10‑year Treasury yields have climbed by almost 0.5 percentage points since the easing cycle began, to around 4.1%–4.14% as of early December. [12]
- 30‑year yields have risen even more, by over 0.8 percentage points, reflecting investor concern about long‑term inflation and the expanding U.S. deficit. [13]
Bloomberg notes that this disconnect between falling policy rates and rising long‑term yields is unusual in the post‑2008 era and has ignited a heated debate on Wall Street. Bulls see it as a sign that markets believe the U.S. can avoid recession; skeptics point to bond vigilantes re‑awakening amid worries over debt sustainability and the Fed’s credibility. [14]
For stocks, higher long‑term yields:
- Put pressure on richly valued growth names by lifting discount rates.
- But can also be read as a vote of confidence in the economic outlook, supporting cyclicals, financials and small caps.
So far, equity futures suggest investors are leaning toward the optimistic read, but this week’s Fed messaging could easily tip that balance.
Dollar, Commodities and Safe Havens: Cross‑Asset Signals
Dollar on Softer Footing
The U.S. dollar index (DXY) has weakened into the Fed meeting:
- MUFG research highlights that DXY has slipped from around 100.4 on November 21 to just below the 99 level, as the market has repriced towards a third straight cut. [15]
A softer dollar is typically supportive for U.S. multinationals, commodities, and emerging markets. However, if the Fed delivers a cut with notably hawkish guidance, the currency could rebound, tightening global financial conditions again.
Oil Holds Near $60, Gold and Silver Stay Elevated
Energy and precious metals are sending a slightly different message:
- WTI crude is trading close to $60 a barrel, while Brent is near $63–64, roughly flat over the last 24 hours after a modest climb in recent sessions. [16]
- Gold is holding above $4,200 an ounce, near record levels, while silver trades just below $59, after a surge driven by heavy ETF inflows. [17]
Economic Times notes that silver‑backed ETFs added about 590 tons last week, the largest weekly inflow since July, suggesting investors are using the Fed meeting as a trigger to increase hedges against policy and inflation risk. [18]
The combination of high precious‑metal prices, a softer dollar and stable oil points to an environment where markets expect lower real rates ahead, but remain wary of geopolitical and fiscal uncertainties.
Global Equities: Asia and Europe Mixed Ahead of the Fed
Overnight moves in Asia and Europe underscore the cautious tone:
- AP reporting shows European bourses trading mixed, with Germany’s DAX roughly flat, France’s CAC 40 modestly lower and the UK’s FTSE 100 slightly higher. [19]
- In Asia, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng slid about 1.2%, while mainland Chinese indices gained, helped by stronger‑than‑expected export data. Japan’s Nikkei 225 dipped after revised GDP figures confirmed a deeper Q3 contraction. [20]
- AP also highlights renewed Japan–China tensions, after Chinese jets reportedly locked radar onto Japanese fighters, adding another layer of geopolitical risk that global investors are monitoring closely. [21]
IG’s weekly outlook describes U.S. equities as “range‑bound”, Hong Kong trading volumes as subdued after big year‑to‑date gains, and Chinese property stress as an ongoing headwind, even as Chinese export numbers surprise to the upside. [22]
For U.S. futures, the takeaway is that global risk sentiment is cautious but not panicked—supportive of modest gains, not a melt‑up.
Premarket Movers: Tech, Speculative Names and AI Plays in Focus
Beyond the indices, several individual stocks are making moves in U.S. premarket trading.
Economic Times’ premarket roundup points to a risk‑on tone in smaller, high‑beta names, even as mega‑caps trade more cautiously: [23]
- Among the biggest premarket gainers:
- Small‑cap and micro‑cap names like Cemtrex (CETX) and Treasure Global (TGL) are posting outsized percentage moves.
- Cloud and data‑infrastructure names such as Confluent (CFLT) are also up sharply, reflecting ongoing enthusiasm around software and AI‑driven infrastructure.
- Notable movers in large caps include:
- NVIDIA (NVDA), trading slightly lower after its recent run, as investors lock in profits ahead of the Fed.
- Netflix (NFLX), edging higher in premarket action.
- iRobot (IRBT) and other idiosyncratic stories seeing double‑digit percentage swings. [24]
The pattern is familiar for a late‑cycle rally: momentum and speculative stocks are attracting aggressive traders, but the broader futures complex is signaling controlled optimism rather than euphoria.
Earnings Calendar: Oracle, Adobe, Broadcom, Costco Top the Week
While the Fed is the headline, earnings may drive sector‑level moves over the next few sessions.
TipRanks, Economic Times and other calendars highlight a cluster of high‑profile releases this week, including: [25]
- Oracle (ORCL) – reports Wednesday
- Investors will look for signs that its cloud and AI infrastructure push is gaining traction, especially after recent volatility linked to debt expansion and concerns about execution.
- Adobe (ADBE) – also Wednesday
- The focus will be on generative AI monetization across Creative Cloud and Document Cloud, and on forward guidance for 2026 demand.
- Broadcom (AVGO) – Thursday
- Consensus expects quarterly revenue north of $12.5 billion, with AI accelerator demand from hyperscalers (including Google) a key theme.
- Costco (COST) – Thursday
- A closely watched read‑through on U.S. consumer strength, discretionary spending, and the impact of still‑elevated prices on membership and basket size.
Also on deck: GameStop, Chewy, Synopsys and Lululemon Athletica, among others, offering snapshots of gaming, e‑commerce, semiconductors and apparel. [26]
For index futures, the big question is whether these reports reinforce the AI‑led growth narrative or trigger another bout of rotation toward value and defensives if guidance disappoints.
Technical Backdrop: Indices at Inflection Levels
Technical commentary from IG and Investing.com suggests that U.S. indices are sitting on important levels: [27]
- The US Tech 100 (Nasdaq 100) is testing resistance just above 25,700; a clear break could open the door toward fresh record highs around 26,250+.
- The S&P 500 E‑mini (ESZ25) is trading in the 6,870–6,900 area, with bulls watching for a sustained move above recent highs to confirm a renewed uptrend.
- Analysts warn that momentum indicators have softened slightly, hinting at the risk of a short‑term pullback if the Fed outcome or earnings disappoint.
In short, futures positioning is bullish but fragile: it won’t take much—an unexpectedly hawkish Powell, a weak mega‑cap earnings print—to knock indices back from these levels.
What to Watch Today as Wall Street Opens
For traders and longer‑term investors alike, several signposts will shape how Monday’s futures moves translate into the cash session:
- Fed‑Related Commentary
- Any last‑minute leaks, speeches, or media reports that hint at whether the Fed is leaning toward a “one‑and‑done” cut or a longer easing cycle.
- Economic Data Flow
- The New York Fed’s consumer inflation expectations survey, plus this week’s JOLTS and inflation releases, will update the narrative on whether price pressures are cooling fast enough to justify more cuts. [28]
- Bond Market Reaction
- Watch the 10‑year and 30‑year Treasury yields: further climbs toward or above recent highs would tighten financial conditions and could pressure valuations, especially in tech and other long‑duration assets. [29]
- Dollar and Cross‑Asset Moves
- A rebound in the dollar index from just under 99, or fresh weakness, will be read as an early verdict on how “dovish” the market expects Wednesday’s messaging to be. [30]
- Earnings‑Driven Sector Rotations
- Pre‑positioning into Oracle, Adobe, Broadcom and Costco could create sharp moves in software, semis and retail, which collectively have significant weight in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq. [31]
Bottom Line: Cautious Optimism Before a Big Fed Test
As of early Monday, U.S. stock futures are signaling a mildly positive start to a crucial week:
- Rate‑cut hopes, a softer dollar and near‑record index levels are supporting risk assets.
- At the same time, rising long‑term yields, elevated gold and silver prices, and geopolitical jitters underline that investors are still hedging against policy missteps and macro shocks. [32]
Whether the current drift higher in S&P 500, Dow and Nasdaq futures turns into a decisive breakout or another short‑term stall will hinge on two things in the days ahead: how the Fed balances its rate cut with future guidance, and whether this week’s mega‑cap earnings can justify the valuations that have brought Wall Street back to the edge of record highs.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Markets are volatile, and investors should do their own research or consult a qualified professional before making investment decisions.
References
1. m.economictimes.com, 2. m.economictimes.com, 3. m.economictimes.com, 4. m.economictimes.com, 5. www.tipranks.com, 6. www.ig.com, 7. www.tipranks.com, 8. www.ig.com, 9. www.ig.com, 10. www.mufgresearch.com, 11. www.sharecafe.com.au, 12. www.sharecafe.com.au, 13. www.sharecafe.com.au, 14. www.bloomberg.com, 15. www.mufgresearch.com, 16. www.tipranks.com, 17. www.tipranks.com, 18. m.economictimes.com, 19. accesswdun.com, 20. accesswdun.com, 21. accesswdun.com, 22. www.ig.com, 23. m.economictimes.com, 24. m.economictimes.com, 25. www.tipranks.com, 26. www.tipranks.com, 27. www.ig.com, 28. www.tipranks.com, 29. www.sharecafe.com.au, 30. www.mufgresearch.com, 31. www.marketscreener.com, 32. www.tipranks.com
