NEW YORK, Jan 4, 2026, 09:32 ET — Market closed
- Wall Street opens Monday with traders assessing the market impact of U.S. strikes in Venezuela and the capture of President Nicolas Maduro
- The Dow and S&P 500 ended higher on Friday, while oil settled slightly lower ahead of the weekend’s geopolitical jolt
- U.S. jobs data due Jan. 9 and big-bank earnings starting Jan. 13 are the next near-term catalysts for stocks
U.S. stocks head into Monday’s session with investors bracing for fallout after the United States struck Venezuela and captured President Nicolas Maduro, a weekend escalation that could rattle oil prices and risk appetite when trading resumes.
The operation landed as Wall Street was closed, leaving markets to price the news all at once at the next opening. Traders are watching whether the shock drives a quick shift into safe-haven assets like U.S. Treasuries and the dollar, or whether the focus turns to the longer-run implications for energy supply and inflation.
On Friday, the Dow rose 319.10 points, or 0.66%, while the S&P 500 added 12.97 points, or 0.19%, and the Nasdaq slipped 0.03%, in a thin first session of 2026. Oil eased, with U.S. crude settling at $57.32 a barrel and Brent at $60.75, while the 10-year Treasury yield ended at 4.191%.
Chipmakers led the rebound, with the Philadelphia SE Semiconductor index — a gauge of major U.S.-listed chip stocks — up 4% as Nvidia and Intel advanced. Tesla slid 2.6% after annual sales fell for a second year, while furniture retailers including Wayfair, Williams-Sonoma and RH climbed after the White House delayed planned tariff increases on upholstered furniture and related items, Reuters reported.
Trump said on Saturday the United States would put Venezuela under temporary American control and oversee a transition, adding that major U.S. oil companies would move into the country to repair degraded infrastructure. Maduro was flown to New York, where a Justice Department official said he is expected to make an initial appearance in Manhattan federal court on Monday.
The energy angle is central. Traders see an immediate focus on how sanctions and shipping restrictions change, with refiners and oil majors parsing whether Venezuelan crude flows shift back toward the United States and away from China if U.S. restrictions are lifted.
Venezuela pumped about 900,000 barrels per day last year, less than 1% of global supply, and analysts have warned that any rebound in output would likely take years even with fresh investment. OPEC+, the group of OPEC and allies that pumps about half the world’s oil, kept its output policy steady and will next meet on Feb. 1.
Investors are also weighing the broader cross-asset playbook: the strike could spark a near-term flight to safety, while the prospect of higher Venezuelan supply over time could pull oil prices down and support growth-sensitive assets if a stable transition emerges.
But the downside scenario is a messier power struggle or wider military escalation that disrupts oil exports, drives price volatility and forces a risk-off rotation out of equities — a move that can hit richly valued stocks hardest. Matthew Maley, chief market strategist at Miller Tabak, said: “The market is looking for direction.” Reuters
Beyond Venezuela, traders have a full January calendar. The U.S. employment report due Jan. 9 is expected to show payrolls rose 55,000 in December, with unemployment at 4.6%, a Reuters poll showed, while Fed funds futures imply little chance of a cut at the late-January Fed meeting but roughly a 50% probability of a quarter-point reduction in March.
Inflation and earnings follow quickly. The consumer price index is due Jan. 13, and JPMorgan’s results are scheduled the same day as the fourth-quarter reporting season starts for major banks, a period investors will use to test whether profit growth can justify elevated equity valuations; LSEG IBES data show S&P 500 earnings are expected to have risen about 13% in 2025 and are seen up 15.5% in 2026.
For Monday, the market’s first read will come at the opening bell, with traders watching for headlines on sanctions, oil flows and any further U.S. military posture — and for updates tied to Maduro’s court appearance — before attention turns to the Jan. 9 jobs report and the Jan. 13 CPI and big-bank earnings slate.
