Dubai, April 28, 2026, 17:03 (GST)
The United Arab Emirates is set to depart OPEC and the OPEC+ group as of May 1, bringing nearly sixty years of membership to a close and clearing the way for Abu Dhabi to chart its own course on oil output—right in the middle of a sharp Middle East supply crunch. According to Bloomberg, the move comes amid a strategic pivot following the Iran war, with the UAE Energy Ministry confirming the decision.
Timing drove the market moves. Brent crude hit $112.16 a barrel Tuesday, with U.S. West Texas Intermediate trading at $100.80. Reuters said tensions between the U.S. and Iran kept the Strait of Hormuz mostly shut—the crucial artery for global oil and LNG shipments.
The UAE’s move isn’t just political. Jorge Leon at Rystad Energy described the exit as a “significant shift for OPEC,” underscoring that, like Saudi Arabia, the UAE holds real spare capacity—unused production that can hit the market fast if supply tightens or prices jump. Leon warned that the bigger concern is OPEC coming out of this “structurally weaker.” Reuters
The UAE attributed its decision to quit to a production policy review and future capacity goals, calling it a move made in “national interest” and in response to market demand. According to WAM, Abu Dhabi plans to introduce additional supply “gradually and measured” after leaving. Zawya
Energy Minister Suhail Mohamed al-Mazrouei told Reuters the move wasn’t discussed with other countries. “This is a policy decision,” al-Mazrouei said, noting it comes after a thorough review of production plans, both current and ahead. He also pointed out that the immediate effect on markets could be small, since strait shipments are already facing disruptions. Reuters
The rift ramps up pressure on Saudi Arabia—OPEC’s unofficial chief—and adds new wrinkles for the wider OPEC+ alliance, which ropes in countries like Russia. OPEC earlier this month announced that Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, the UAE, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria and Oman would lower output by 206,000 barrels per day in May, with another meeting set for May 3.
This rivalry didn’t crop up overnight. The Associated Press has noted growing friction between the UAE and Saudi Arabia around economics and regional influence, as Riyadh steps up efforts to attract global investors and liberalize its own economy.
Abu Dhabi continues to push for greater flexibility in cashing in on its oil reserves. According to Argus, the UAE has ramped up crude production capacity in recent years and pressed for higher OPEC+ baselines—the quota reference points that set each member’s output limit.
Abu Dhabi brought the UAE into OPEC back in 1967, predating the country’s formation by four years. According to The National, Qatar exited OPEC in 2019. Bahrain and Oman, on the other hand, have stayed outside the bloc, though both typically cooperate with OPEC on managing oil output.
The risk: even with greater UAE independence, prices may not fall anytime soon. If the Strait of Hormuz stays restricted, added supply might not get to market fast enough to relieve the squeeze; but if passage opens and the UAE pumps more into an already weaker market, that same supply boost could push prices down further—potentially stirring more discord within the group. Crude futures, according to WSJ, climbed as traders zeroed in on ongoing supply snarls and a still-tight near-term delivery window.
The UAE is calling its departure flexibility, not a break. Still, OPEC just lost one of the rare members with both spare capacity and the money to act fast. That shifts more of the old balancing act onto Saudi Arabia—tasked with steadying oil markets when few others can.
