KYIV — December 15, 2025 — The Ukrainian hryvnia started the new week broadly steady against the US dollar, with the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) setting the official USD/UAH rate at 42.1936 for Monday. [1]
In the retail (cash) market, however, Ukrainians are seeing slightly different prices. Monitoring data reported by RBC-Ukraine showed exchange offices selling dollars around 42.50 UAH and buying around 41.98 UAH early on December 15, underscoring the familiar spread between official and street-level pricing. [2]
Below is what matters most for anyone tracking the UAH/USD price today—whether for household budgeting, importing goods, or evaluating near-term currency risks.
UAH/USD price today: the key levels to know
Because currency quotes are often written in two ways, it helps to translate the “UAH/USD” question into practical numbers:
- Official NBU USD/UAH rate (UAH per $1): 42.1936 for Dec. 15. [3]
- NBU’s UAH/USD reference rate (set at 12:00): 42.2383 (also expressed as UAH per $1). [4]
- Cash exchange offices (average, per RBC-Ukraine):
- Sell (UAH per $1): ~42.50
- Buy (UAH per $1): ~41.98 [5]
If you’re specifically thinking in UAH/USD (USD per ₴1), the official rate implies ₴1 ≈ $0.0237 (the inverse of 42.1936). [6]
Why official and cash rates differ in Ukraine
Ukraine’s FX market naturally shows different “tiers” of USD/UAH pricing:
- The NBU official rate is a benchmark used for many accounting and reference purposes and is calculated by the central bank. [7]
- Interbank pricing reflects wholesale market conditions and liquidity (often the closest “market” anchor for the official trajectory). [8]
- Cash rates in banks and exchange offices add operating costs, risk buffers, and real-time supply/demand dynamics—especially during periods of uncertainty or seasonal demand. [9]
That’s why a household buying cash dollars typically pays more than the official benchmark, while sellers receive less.
What changed on December 15: hryvnia slightly stronger officially, cash market a touch higher
Official rate: marginal hryvnia strengthening versus Friday
The NBU’s official USD/UAH rate for Dec. 15 is 42.1936, compared with 42.2721 previously shown on the NBU market page—an improvement of about 8 kopecks for the hryvnia. [10]
Cash market: small uptick in selling quotes
Despite the slight official strengthening, RBC-Ukraine reported that exchange offices nudged the average selling price to 42.50 UAH per $1 (up about 2 kopecks versus the previous working day in their monitoring), with the average buy price near 41.98. [11]
This “two-speed” pattern—official stability but retail micro-moves—is common when demand is lumpy and the market is watching fresh geopolitical and financing headlines.
Where banks are quoting the dollar today
Reports from Ukrainian outlets and bank-quote aggregations show broadly consistent ranges:
- As of early Monday, UNN cited bank quotes roughly 42.00–42.46 UAH per $1 (context: retail pricing). [12]
- The Page’s bank table for December 15 displayed cash quotes across major banks clustering around the low-to-mid 42s (for example, PrivatBank around 41.75 / 42.35 in cash, Oschadbank around 42.10 / 42.55, among others listed). [13]
These ranges align with the idea that the market is still orbiting the 42.2–42.6 zone, with spreads reflecting competition, cash availability, and risk appetite.
Forecasts for Dec. 15–21: what bankers say to expect for USD/UAH
A key question for Google Discover readers is not just where USD/UAH is, but where it might go this week.
RBC-Ukraine published a weekly corridor forecast from Taras Lesovyy, director of the financial markets and investment department at Globus Bank:
- Interbank corridor (buy/sell): 42.1–42.6 UAH per $1
- Cash market corridor: 42.3–42.8 UAH per $1 [14]
UNIAN reported the same week-ahead guidance and also flagged a behavioral driver: some Ukrainians may increase FX purchases as a hedge, which can temporarily lift cash quotes even if the official benchmark remains calm. [15]
Bottom line for the week: the mainstream bank view being quoted in local business coverage suggests controlled fluctuations, not a sharp devaluation—unless a shock hits financing or sentiment.
The deeper drivers behind the UAH/USD price right now
1) NBU policy: “managed flexibility,” with interventions enabled by large reserves
Ukraine’s FX regime in wartime has relied heavily on active central bank management—not a free float—using interventions and rules to damp volatility. [16]
The NBU has also highlighted the key backstop: international reserves.
- The NBU reported that as of December 1, 2025, reserves reached $54.748 billion, the highest level in independent Ukraine’s history, after 10.6% growth in November. [17]
- In the same release, the central bank disclosed that in November it conducted net FX sales of about $2.727 billion, reflecting the scale of intervention used to keep the FX market stable. [18]
Separately, ICU’s weekly research note (Dec. 8) described a period of significant interventions and framed high reserves as a factor that “fully enables” continued FX-market control under sustained external financing. [19]
Why this matters for USD/UAH: strong reserves don’t guarantee a fixed number, but they can reduce the probability of disorderly moves and keep pricing within a guided range—especially around psychologically important levels like 42–43.
2) Interest rates and hryvnia deposits: the NBU is still running a tight policy stance
On December 11, the NBU held its key policy rate at 15.5%, explicitly linking the decision to maintaining the attractiveness of hryvnia instruments and the sustainability of the FX market, while working toward its inflation target. [20]
The same communication stressed that external financing has helped sustain reserves, but future parameters of international assistance remain uncertain, a core risk variable for both inflation and FX stability. [21]
High hryvnia yields can discourage dollarization at the margin—an important stabilizer for the cash market.
3) Geopolitics and funding headlines: markets are watching Berlin and Brussels
On December 15, Reuters reported that Ukraine peace talks in Berlin extended into a second day and that the week includes a critical EU summit agenda tied to Ukraine financing. [22]
Funding expectations matter because international inflows are a major structural support for reserves and intervention capacity—something the NBU itself emphasized in its policy communications. [23]
Separately, Reuters has reported the EU’s moves to indefinitely freeze Russian central bank assets, clearing a procedural obstacle for a Ukraine support loan structure (with details expected to be finalized around the Dec. 18 summit). [24]
FX implication: Even when the hryvnia is managed, sharp changes in the perceived outlook for aid or security can shift cash-market demand quickly.
4) The global dollar backdrop: a softer USD cycle can influence local pricing at the margins
Reuters reporting on December 15 highlighted a broader theme in 2025: a more volatile and weakening US dollar, and a rotation of investor attention toward emerging market currencies. [25]
Ukraine is not a typical EM currency story because of wartime restrictions and heavy intervention, but global USD direction still matters indirectly—especially via EUR/USD moves that affect Ukraine’s euro pricing and trade flows (and, ultimately, how the NBU calibrates cross-currency stability). [26]
Looking beyond this week: what 2026 expectations say about the hryvnia path
For medium-term planning, the “big numbers” people reference are not day-to-day ticks—but budget assumptions and sell-side forecasts.
- UNN’s report on Ukraine’s 2026 state budget cited an assumed average exchange rate around 45.7 UAH per $1(used for budgeting under continued-war assumptions), while also noting risks tied to external financing timing. [27]
- Dragon Capital, in an October 2025 macro update, forecast USD/UAH reaching 43.0 by end-2025 and 44.0 by end-2026, arguing the NBU is likely to allow only slight weakening rather than “significant devaluation,” given the broader policy framework and reserve dynamics. [28]
These are not guarantees—but they frame why many local forecasts for late December 2025 still cluster in the 42–43 area.
What to watch next for UAH/USD
If you’re tracking the UAH to USD exchange rate for practical decisions (payments, imports, budgeting), the next catalysts are clearer than any single headline:
- NBU signals and liquidity operations (policy messaging, intervention patterns). [29]
- International financing flows (size and timing of partner tranches), which the NBU has tied directly to reserve adequacy. [30]
- EU decisions this week related to long-term funding structures for Ukraine. [31]
- Peace-talk developments and broader war-risk perceptions, which can move cash demand quickly. [32]
- Seasonal year-end demand, highlighted in both bank commentary and institutional forecasts as a recurring source of short-lived pressure. [33]
The takeaway
As of December 15, 2025, the official USD/UAH rate is 42.1936 and the hryvnia remains in a narrow, managed range, even as cash quotes fluctuate modestly around 42.5 in exchange offices. [34]
Current week-ahead forecasts cited by major Ukrainian outlets point to 42.1–42.6 on the interbank market and 42.3–42.8 in the cash market, assuming no sudden shocks in financing or geopolitics. [35]
In short: today’s UAH/USD price story is one of controlled stability—backstopped by record reserves and tight monetary policy—but still sensitive to the same two levers that have dominated wartime FX since 2022: external funding timing and security headlines. [36]
References
1. bank.gov.ua, 2. www.rbc.ua, 3. bank.gov.ua, 4. bank.gov.ua, 5. www.rbc.ua, 6. bank.gov.ua, 7. bank.gov.ua, 8. bank.gov.ua, 9. www.rbc.ua, 10. bank.gov.ua, 11. www.rbc.ua, 12. unn.ua, 13. thepage.ua, 14. www.rbc.ua, 15. www.unian.ua, 16. bank.gov.ua, 17. bank.gov.ua, 18. bank.gov.ua, 19. icu.ua, 20. bank.gov.ua, 21. bank.gov.ua, 22. www.reuters.com, 23. bank.gov.ua, 24. www.reuters.com, 25. www.reuters.com, 26. dragon-capital.com, 27. unn.ua, 28. dragon-capital.com, 29. bank.gov.ua, 30. bank.gov.ua, 31. www.reuters.com, 32. www.reuters.com, 33. www.rbc.ua, 34. bank.gov.ua, 35. www.rbc.ua, 36. bank.gov.ua
