Uber Stock Slides as EV Incentives Fade and EU Risks Mount — Can Robotaxis and Profits Keep the Rally Alive?

On 11 December 2025, Uber Technologies, Inc. (NYSE: UBER) is back in the market spotlight for all the noisy reasons: climate politics, European regulators, robotaxis in Dallas, and a sharp pullback in the share price.

As of the close on 10 December, Uber stock finished at $84.16, down 5.51% on the day, on heavy volume around 51 million shares. Despite that hit, the stock is still up roughly 48% year-to-date, reflecting how strong 2025 has been for the ride‑hailing giant. ^[1]

Wall Street, meanwhile, is still broadly bullish. A consensus of 32 analysts compiled by StockAnalysis pegs the average 12‑month price target at about $108.94, implying around 29% upside from current levels, with a “Strong Buy” consensus and target range from $78 to $150. ^[2]

So why is the stock wobbling now, and what do the latest forecasts and analyses published on 11 December 2025 actually say?

Uber stock today: a sharp pullback after a big run

Smartkarma’s market‑movers note on 11 December frames the current setup bluntly: Uber’s share price at $84.16 reflects a single‑day drop of 5.51%, but a +47.66% gain year‑to‑date, underscoring how much optimism is still priced in. ^[3]

That pullback comes after a string of catalysts that were mostly positive for months:

Inclusion in the S&P 500 back in December 2023. ^[4]
Upgrade to the S&P 100 on 22 September 2025, replacing Charter Communications and cementing Uber’s status as a U.S. mega‑cap bellwether. ^[5]
Strong earnings and free cash flow, with Uber increasingly treated as a profitable platform business instead of a cash-burning startup.

Now, however, the narrative is getting more complicated.

What’s driving the latest Uber stock sell‑off?

1. Climate pivot: Uber scales back EV incentives

The most politically charged headline in the last 24 hours comes from Bloomberg’s reporting that Uber is scaling back some of its climate initiatives and discontinuing monthly EV bonuses for drivers, even as its profits hit record highs. ^[6]

Key points from that coverage and subsequent commentary:

Uber had previously pledged billions of dollars to help drivers shift to electric vehicles and promote “zero-emission” trips.
Following the passage of President Trump’s so‑called “Big Beautiful Bill”, which rolled back a range of clean‑energy incentives including EV tax support, Uber publicly backed the legislation and is now trimming its own EV subsidies. ^[7]
Climate and clean‑tech commentators argue that the bill is likely to depress U.S. EV sales by around 40% versus prior expectations, making Uber’s earlier climate targets much harder to reach. ^[8]

From a stock‑market perspective, this creates a two‑sided problem:

Reputation and political risk: Uber’s climate U‑turn is drawing criticism from environmental groups and could complicate its relationships with city regulators who granted concessions based on earlier green pledges.
Long‑term regulatory uncertainty: If the political pendulum swings back toward stricter climate policy in future, Uber may be seen as having backed the “wrong” side, increasing the risk of future policy whiplash.

Investors are trying to price in the possibility that Uber’s climate narrative — once a core part of its premium ESG story — is now another risk factor to track rather than a simple tailwind.

2. Europe: taxi protests, data fines and analyst downgrades

The second major pressure point is Europe, where the political and regulatory environment keeps getting thornier.

A 10 December analysis in The Economic Times recaps how Uber stock fell 3.8% on 9 December, closing at $89.07, after a wave of negative European headlines. ^[9]

Highlights from that coverage and related reports:

Around 1,500 taxis blocked Barcelona’s Gran Via in a major protest organized by the Elite Taxi union, with roughly 80% of Catalan taxi drivers calling for stricter rules on ride‑hailing platforms such as Uber. ^[10]
In the Netherlands, Uber was hit with a €290 million fine over the handling and transfer of European driver data to the U.S., feeding concerns around privacy, algorithmic pay, and data protection. ^[11]
Some European governments are weighing rules that could reclassify drivers as employees instead of contractors, a move that would push up Uber’s labor and insurance costs in key markets. ^[12]

On the back of these developments:

Erste Group downgraded Uber from Buy to Hold, explicitly citing the risk that tougher European regulations could weigh on growth. ^[13]
Morgan Stanley maintained an Overweight rating but trimmed its price target from $115 to $110, reflecting somewhat lower conviction in the risk‑reward skew. ^[14]
Commentary compiled by Red94 and other outlets suggests some analysts now separate Uber’s valuation into regional “buckets,” seeing Europe as a lower‑margin, higher‑risk piece compared to North America. ^[15]

The message from Europe: Uber’s growth is real, but the political “complexity tax” is rising.

3. Robotaxis, autonomy — and a crowded field of rivals

On the positive side, Uber is aggressively leaning into autonomy, which many analysts still view as a core long‑term margin driver.

Dallas robotaxis with Avride

On 3 December, Uber announced that riders in Dallas can now be matched with an Avride‑powered robotaxi when they request UberX, Uber Comfort, or Uber Comfort Electric. The service covers a 9‑square‑mile zone spanning Downtown, Uptown, Turtle Creek and Deep Ellum, at no additional cost versus a human‑driven ride. ^[16]

Key details:

The cars are fully electric Hyundai Ioniq 5 vehicles powered by Avride’s self‑driving stack.
Dallas is the fourth U.S. city where Uber offers robotaxis on its platform, alongside existing partnerships with Waymo in Phoenix, Austin and Atlanta and WeRide in Middle Eastern markets such as Abu Dhabi and Riyadh. ^[17]
For now, human safety operators remain in the driver’s seat, with fully driverless operation described as a longer‑term goal. ^[18]

Food delivery robots with Serve Robotics

Autonomy isn’t limited to rides. Serve Robotics, Uber’s longtime partner for sidewalk delivery, announced on 10 December that its robots are now live in Alexandria, Virginia, bringing autonomous Uber Eats deliveries to several neighborhoods in the Washington, D.C. area. ^[19]

In just the last week:

Serve has expanded its Uber Eats robot deliveries in Fort Lauderdale, adding to earlier deployments in Los Angeles, Miami, Chicago and Atlanta. ^[20]
The company says it has a plan to deploy up to 2,000 AI‑powered sidewalk robots across Uber’s network over time. ^[21]

Simply Wall St’s narrative article published on 11 December ties these moves together, arguing that Uber’s AV push — both robotaxis and delivery robots — is central to the “autonomy‑led margin improvement” thesis, even as it adds execution and regulatory risk. ^[22]

But competition is brutal

On the same day that Uber’s autonomy story is making headlines, Zacks Investment Research highlighted a different angle: Tesla, Waymo and other robotaxi players are racking up miles and mindshare. The Zacks “Investment Ideas” feature notes that Waymo has completed more than 14 million paid robotaxi trips in 2025 and is on pace for 1 million rides per week by the end of 2026, while Tesla is pushing hard toward unsupervised FSD and dedicated robotaxi fleets. ^[23]

Zacks also points out that Uber and Lyft shares sold off on elevated volume this week as investors re‑price the competitive landscape in robotaxis and autonomous mobility. ^[24]

In short: autonomy is both an opportunity and an arms race, and the market is no longer willing to price it as a risk‑free upside lever.

Under the hood: Uber’s latest results and guidance

Despite the recent drama, Uber’s underlying financials remain strong.

In its Q3 2025 results, Uber reported: ^[25]

Monthly Active Platform Consumers (MAPCs): 189 million, up 17% year‑on‑year.
Trips: 3.51 billion, up 22% year‑on‑year.
Gross bookings: $49.7 billion, up 21% in constant currency.
Revenue: $13.47 billion, up 20% (19% in constant currency).
Income from operations: $1.11 billion, up 5%.
Net income: $6.63 billion, boosted by a $4.9 billion tax valuation release and a $1.5 billion gain from revaluing equity investments.
Adjusted EBITDA: $2.26 billion, up 33%.
Free cash flow: $2.23 billion, up 6%.

For Q4 2025, Uber guided to: ^[26]

Gross bookings of $52.25–$53.75 billion (17–21% year‑on‑year growth, constant currency).
Adjusted EBITDA of $2.41–$2.51 billion (31–36% growth).

Uber has also signaled that from 2026 onward it will place more emphasis on adjusted operating income and EPS guidance, gradually de‑emphasizing adjusted EBITDA as its primary profitability metric. ^[27]

From a fundamental lens, GuruFocus and other analytics platforms highlight: ^[28]

Trailing‑twelve‑month revenue around $47.3 billion, with 3‑year revenue growth of about 30.5%.
Operating margin near 9.5% and a net margin above 26%, driven in part by non‑cash gains.
A P/E ratio around 17, P/S near 4.5, and P/B over 9, all near the upper end of Uber’s short trading history.
A beta of roughly 1.8, flagging above‑market volatility.

This mix — high growth, strong cash generation, and relatively rich multiples — is exactly why the stock reacts so violently to changes in the narrative: sentiment moves first, fundamentals settle the debate later.

Fresh forecasts and analyses published on 11 December 2025

Simply Wall St: bull case vs. EU risk

In a 11 December piece titled “Uber (UBER) Is Down 7.2% After Expanding Dallas Robotaxis Amid EU Scrutiny – Has The Bull Case Changed?” Simply Wall St reframes the current situation as a tension between two forces: ^[29]

Autonomy and platform scale as key drivers of long‑term profit growth.
Regulatory and political risk, especially in Europe, as the main near‑term swing factor.

Within that narrative:

Their community‑driven model projects $71.2 billion of revenue and $9.7 billion of earnings by 2028, implying substantial margin expansion over the next three years. ^[30]
They estimate a fair value of about $111.06 per share, roughly 32% above the current price, though they explicitly note that valuations across their community range from $75 to ~$167, illustrating how wide the scenario spread is. ^[31]

Importantly, this is described as a long‑term narrative, not a short‑term trading call, and it highlights the core uncertainty: autonomy could be enormously profitable, or enormously expensive.

Smartkarma: sharp drop but still a growth story

Smartkarma’s “Market Movers” update on 11 December emphasizes the 5.51% single‑day price drop and high trading volume, while also pointing out: ^[32]

Year‑to‑date performance is still +47.66%, which keeps Uber firmly in “winner” territory for 2025.
Uber is pulling back from EVs and cutting driver incentives even as European regulatory pressure rises, a combination that makes investors question whether the long‑running bull case is shifting.
CEO Dara Khosrowshahi has unveiled a $2 billion investment plan for Japan over five years, and the company is still rolling out physical booking kiosks at airports and same‑day delivery through Uber Direct on Shopify — signs that the core platform is far from saturated.
Smartkarma’s internal “Smart Scores” give Uber high marks for Growth and Resilience, but lower scores for Value and Dividend, suggesting a growth‑tilted profile at a relatively full valuation.

In other words: still a growth leader, but now priced like one and facing more visible political risk.

Zacks and macro robotaxi sentiment

The Zacks “Investment Ideas” note highlighted on Nasdaq’s news feed is nominally about Tesla’s robotaxi bull case, but Uber gets dragged into the story. Zacks notes: ^[33]

Waymo claims 14+ million paid robotaxi trips in 2025, with ambitious volume goals for 2026.
Markets increasingly view the robotaxi race as a multi‑player competition — Tesla, Waymo, Uber, Lyft, Zoox and others — rather than a guaranteed win for any single company.
Lyft and Uber shares sold off sharply on above‑average volume as investors digested headlines about Tesla’s progress toward unsupervised FSD and the broader re‑rating of the autonomy sector.

The implication: Uber is now being priced in relation to peers’ autonomy progress, not just its own announcements.

Consensus forecasts: still bullish, but with caveats

From a top‑down perspective, the numbers are still supportive of the Uber bull case.

One‑year price targets and ratings

StockAnalysis shows 32 analysts covering Uber with an average price target of ~$108.94 and a consensus rating of “Strong Buy”, implying about 29% upside from ~$84. ^[34]
MarketBeat’s compilation similarly points to a “Moderate/Strong Buy” consensus, with recent actions including:
- Morgan Stanley: Overweight, target cut from $115 to $110. ^[35]
- Royal Bank of Canada: Outperform, target $110. ^[36]
- UBS, TD Cowen, Goldman Sachs, Truist, Deutsche Bank and others mostly reiterating Buy or equivalent ratings with targets generally between $100 and $125. ^[37]
- Erste Group: downgrade to Hold, reflecting European growth concerns. ^[38]

A separate analysis from Simply Wall St dated 7 November notes that, after Q3 earnings, consensus for 2026 revenue is around $60.1 billion, implying ~21% growth versus the last 12 months, while GAAP EPS is forecast to fall to about $3.55 as some non‑recurring tax and investment gains roll off. The average analyst price target sits near $110, with a range from $82 to $150. ^[39]

They also highlight that expected revenue growth of roughly 17% annually through 2026 is slower than Uber’s ~28% historical 5‑year rate, but still about double the 8.3% growth forecast for the broader transportation industry, underscoring Uber’s above‑trend growth profile. ^[40]

Longer‑term growth metrics

StockAnalysis’ forecast tables paint a similar picture: ^[41]

2025 revenue: about $53.0 billion, up ~20.6% year‑on‑year.
2026 revenue: about $61.5 billion, up ~15.8%.
2025 EPS: ~$5.35, up 17.3% from 2024.
2026 EPS: ~$3.59, down ~33% from 2025, again reflecting one‑off benefits falling away and a more “normalized” profit base.

That mix — strong top‑line growth, but more volatile EPS — is precisely why some valuation‑focused services, like Smartkarma’s factor scores and GuruFocus’ valuation metrics, flag Uber as growth‑rich but not obviously cheap. ^[42]

Key themes investors are watching now

Put all of today’s reports together and you get a handful of big questions that will likely dominate Uber’s stock narrative into 2026:

Regulatory overhang in Europe
Taxi protests, data‑privacy fines, and potential driver reclassification keep Europe a structurally challenging region. Analysts increasingly treat European profitability as a key downside risk to consolidated margins. ^[43]
Climate strategy credibility
By backing Trump’s climate rollback bill while simultaneously cutting EV incentives, Uber may have bought itself some short‑term financial flexibility at the cost of long‑term climate and regulatory goodwill, especially in cities where EV commitments were part of licensing negotiations. ^[44]
Robotaxis and autonomous delivery
Dallas, Serve Robotics expansions, and Waymo partnerships show real progress — but investors are now benchmarking Uber against Waymo’s scale and Tesla’s ambitions, not just its own press releases. AUTONOMY is a high‑capex, high‑regulation zone, and the payoff timeline remains uncertain. ^[45]
Profitability vs. reinvestment
Uber is solidly profitable on an adjusted basis, generating billions in free cash flow. The open question is how much of that will be reinvested into autonomy, logistics, AI‑driven advertising and membership growth (Uber One), and whether those bets earn returns that justify the current premium valuation.
Valuation and volatility
With P/E and P/S ratios near the top of their historical bands and a beta near 1.8, Uber remains a high‑beta way to express views on consumer demand, mobility, autonomy and even climate policy — not a dull utility‑style cash machine. ^[46]

Bottom line: A bigger, riskier Uber — and a market that finally cares

The flurry of research, forecasts and commentary dated 11 December 2025 paints a picture of Uber as a scaled, profitable, politically exposed growth platform:

Bullish case: Strong revenue growth, robust cash flows, rising operating margins, S&P 100 membership, growing ads and memberships businesses, and real progress in autonomy and logistics. Valuation models from Simply Wall St and others still point to ~30% upside over a 12‑ to 36‑month horizon, assuming the company hits consensus forecasts. ^[47]
Bearish case: Europe’s regulatory grind, a controversial climate pivot, fierce robotaxi competition and rich valuation multiples leave little room for error. A few more headlines like this week’s EV and regulatory stories, and the multiple could compress faster than earnings can grow.