Q3 earnings surprise, upgraded 2025 outlook and a wave of new analyst calls have pushed Ulta Beauty to record territory ahead of Monday’s open.
As of the close on Friday, December 5, 2025, Ulta Beauty (NASDAQ: ULTA) finished around $601.50 per share, marking its all‑time highest closing price and capping a weekly gain of more than 12%. [1] Over the last year, the stock is up roughly 50%, far outpacing the broader market. [2]
Going into Monday, December 8, 2025, investors are digesting:
- Blowout Q3 2025 results with double‑digit revenue growth
- Raised full‑year guidance on sales, margins and EPS [3]
- Record‑high share price and stretched but not extreme valuation
- Fresh research and commentary dated December 7, 2025, including institutional ownership moves and new fair‑value estimates [4]
Here’s a detailed look at what matters most for ULTA stock before the bell.
1. Ulta Beauty stock is coming off a powerful post‑earnings breakout
Ulta’s Q3 fiscal 2025 earnings, released after the close on December 4, triggered a sharp rally:
- The stock jumped about 12–13% on Friday and closed at an all‑time high near $601.50. [5]
- Ulta was one of the top performers in the S&P 500 on the day, according to multiple market reports. [6]
- Over the past week, ULTA is up more than 12%, and more than 16% over the last month. [7]
Macro data adds context: on Friday, the S&P 500 closed just below its all‑time high, with Ulta highlighted among the day’s biggest gainers as investors bet on rate cuts and resilient consumer spending. [8]
For Monday’s open, traders will be watching whether:
- Momentum buyers continue to chase the breakout above the prior 52‑week high around $611.90 [9]
- Or short‑term holders decide to take profits after a near‑vertical move.
2. Inside Ulta’s Q3 2025 numbers
Ulta’s third quarter of fiscal 2025 (13 weeks ended November 1, 2025) was strong on revenue and comps, and solid—but not explosive—on earnings. [10]
Headline results
- Net sales:$2.86–$2.90 billion, up 12.9% year‑over‑year (vs. ~$2.53B a year ago) [11]
- Comparable sales:+6.3% (vs. 0.6% in the prior‑year quarter) [12]
- Diluted EPS:$5.14, flat vs. last year but well above Wall Street estimates around $4.6–$4.7. [13]
- Net income:$230.9 million, slightly below last year’s $242.2 million as operating expenses rose. [14]
Margins and costs
- Gross margin:40.4%, up from 39.7% last year, helped by lower inventory shrink and stronger merchandise margin. [15]
- Operating margin:10.8%, down from 12.6%, reflecting higher store payroll, incentives, and tech investments. [16]
In other words, Ulta is growing the top line quickly and improving gross margin, but reinvesting heavily in stores, wages and digital, which is suppressing near‑term operating margin—a key theme in several analyst notes. [17]
3. 2025 outlook raised: guidance is now meaningfully above earlier expectations
The biggest fundamental driver of Friday’s move was Ulta’s upgraded fiscal 2025 outlook. In its earnings release and in subsequent media coverage, the company raised targets across sales, comps, operating margin and EPS. [18]
Updated full‑year fiscal 2025 guidance
- Net sales: About $12.3 billion
- Up from prior $12.0–$12.1 billion
- Comparable sales growth:4.4–4.7%
- Up from 2.5–3.5%
- Operating margin:12.3–12.4%
- Up from 11.9–12.0%
- Diluted EPS:$25.20–$25.50
- Up from $23.85–$24.30
Outside analysts broadly view this as management signaling confidence in beauty demand, international expansion (including Space NK and a newer Mexico joint venture), and the company’s “Ulta Beauty Unleashed” strategy under CEO Kecia Steelman. [19]
Several commentaries emphasise:
- Beauty remains one of the more resilient discretionary categories, even as lower‑income consumers feel pressure. [20]
- Ulta’s mix of prestige and mass beauty, plus wellness and salon services, continues to draw traffic across income brackets. [21]
4. What analysts are saying heading into Monday
Fresh price‑target hikes
Since Thursday’s earnings release, multiple firms have raised their 12‑month price targets:
- UBS: Boosted target to $690 with a Buy rating, citing strong execution and conservative guidance. [22]
- Evercore ISI: Lifted target from $640 to $660 (Outperform). [23]
- Oppenheimer: Raised target to $615 and reiterated Outperform. [24]
- DA Davidson: Took its target up to $650 and kept a Buy rating. [25]
Consensus view and distribution
Aggregator data now show mixed but generally positive sentiment:
- Around 27–30 analysts cover ULTA.
- Distribution is roughly 14 Buys, 12 Holds and 1 Sell, with an overall “Hold / Moderate Buy”‑type consensus. [26]
- Average 12‑month price targets range from about $560–$610 depending on the data provider:
With ULTA closing around $601.50, the stock is now trading very close to, or slightly above, many average price targets, even as the most bullish targets (UBS $690, Evercore $660) imply additional upside.
5. What changed on December 7, 2025: new weekend analyses
Several fresh pieces of research and commentary dated December 7, 2025 give more color on how the market is thinking about Ulta heading into Monday.
Simply Wall St: updated outlook and fair‑value view
A detailed note from Simply Wall St, published December 7, highlights: [30]
- Ulta’s Q3 results and guidance lift, with sales up to $2.86B and EPS stable at $5.14.
- Progress on the $3.0 billion share‑repurchase program, with $693 million spent in the first nine months and $2.0 billion still available. [31]
- A narrative projecting revenue to ~$13.8B and earnings of $1.3B by 2028, implying ~6% annual revenue growth.
- An internal DCF‑based fair value around $603 per share, which is very close to the current stock price.
Crucially, the note stresses that higher store wages and ongoing investments could pressure margins if they outpace revenue growth—one of the main risks investors should monitor.
MarketBeat: institutional flows and valuation snapshot
Another December 7 story from MarketBeat focuses on institutional ownership: [32]
- Invesco Ltd. trimmed its stake by about 22.7% in Q2, now holding roughly 1.40% of the company.
- Other big players—Price T. Rowe, Norges Bank, JPMorgan, AQR—have increased or initiated positions, contributing to institutional ownership of about 90.4%.
- The same piece pegs Ulta’s:
- Market cap: ~$27 billion
- Trailing P/E: about 23.1
- 12‑month trading range:$309.01–$611.90
The article notes that despite the big move, the consensus price target still sits below the current price, implying that some models see limited upside from here, even as several analysts talk about further gains.
TipRanks & other outlets: “all‑time high” framing
A TipRanks write‑up on December 7 emphasises that Ulta stock is trading at an all‑time high after its earnings beat, underscoring renewed investor confidence in the name. [33]
Additional weekend summaries from outlets like MarketBeat and Stocktwits highlight: [34]
- The new CEO’s strategy and store refreshes
- A healthy loyalty program and beauty “ecosystem”
- Near‑term cost pressures but an improving long‑term margin story
- Institutional investors “accumulating” the stock after the earnings surprise
Together, this weekend content paints a picture of a high‑quality retailer whose valuation has quickly moved up to match improved fundamentals.
6. Key numbers to know before Monday’s open
Here are the headline metrics many traders and investors will have in mind going into the December 8 session (all figures as of the most recent data through December 5–7, 2025):
- Last close: ~$601.50 per share (all‑time closing high) [35]
- 52‑week high / low: about $611.90 / $309.01 [36]
- Market capitalization: roughly $26.9–27.0 billion [37]
- Trailing P/E: ~23.1
- Forward P/E (based on updated EPS guidance): roughly mid‑20s (around 24x per one Motley Fool estimate) [38]
- Q3 revenue growth:+12.9% year‑over‑year [39]
- Q3 comp‑store sales:+6.3%
- Updated FY25 EPS guidance:$25.20–$25.50 vs prior $23.85–$24.30 [40]
These figures underpin both the bull and bear narratives heading into Monday.
7. Bull vs. bear case going into December 8, 2025
The bull case
Supportive arguments you’ll see in positive research notes include: [41]
- Category strength: Beauty, fragrance and skincare demand remains robust even as other discretionary categories slow.
- Traffic and comps: A 6.3% comp increase with strong e‑commerce growth (~21% in one report) suggests healthy underlying demand. [42]
- Higher guidance: Raising revenue, comps and EPS guidance this late in the year is a strong vote of confidence heading into the holiday quarter.
- Strategic execution: New CEO Kecia Steelman and the Ulta Beauty Unleashed strategy seem to be working, with better in‑store execution and marketing. [43]
- Scale and loyalty: 1,500+ U.S. stores, growing international presence (Space NK, Mexico) and a large loyalty program support long‑term growth. [44]
- Institutional support: High institutional ownership and recent accumulation by major asset managers offer a liquidity and sentiment tailwind. [45]
The bear (or cautious) case
More cautious or skeptical analysts point to: [46]
- Margin pressure: Operating margin is down year‑over‑year, and wage and store cost inflation may continue to bite.
- Valuation near “fair”: DCF‑based fair‑value work around $600 per share suggests the stock may be fairly valued after the rally, with less margin of safety. [47]
- Guidance “priced in”: With the stock at its all‑time closing high and near the top of the historical range, some of the upgraded outlook may already be reflected in the price. [48]
- Competition: The beauty space is competitive (including e.l.f. Beauty and mass‑market rivals), and Ulta must keep spending on marketing and store refreshes to stay ahead. [49]
- Macro risk: A weaker consumer or a disappointing holiday season could quickly challenge the upbeat sales assumptions embedded in guidance.
8. What could move ULTA stock on December 8 and the days ahead
Going into Monday’s open, there’s no scheduled company‑specific event, so price action is likely to be driven by:
- Follow‑through buying or profit‑taking
- After a double‑digit one‑day gain, many short‑term traders will decide whether to lock in profits or press the trend.
- Watch how the stock behaves around its recent high near $611–$612 and any pullbacks toward the breakout area in the upper‑$570s to $580s.
- New analyst notes or target changes
- Additional brokerages could publish post‑earnings notes Monday morning, potentially raising or reiterating ratings and price targets, which often move the stock in early trading.
- Read‑through from holiday‑shopping news
- Any updated retail sales or holiday‑season commentary—from Ulta, peers, or macro data—will feed into expectations for Ulta’s Q4 and full‑year numbers. [50]
- Macro and Fed expectations
- Markets are currently pricing additional Fed rate cuts, and risk appetite has been strong. If this tone changes, high‑multiple consumer names like Ulta could see volatility. [51]
- Options and technical flows
- The sharp rally into an all‑time high can trigger options‑related hedging and systematic buying or selling, amplifying intraday moves even without new fundamental news.
None of these factors guarantees a specific direction on Monday, but they frame the most likely drivers of ULTA’s next short‑term move.
9. Bottom line for Ulta Beauty stock before the December 8 open
Heading into Monday:
- Fundamentals look strong: Q3 delivered double‑digit sales growth and better‑than‑expected EPS, and management raised guidance across the board. [52]
- The growth story is intact—and expanding globally, with international moves and an enhanced omnichannel strategy supporting a longer‑term runway. [53]
- Valuation is no longer cheap: After the rally, ULTA trades at ~23x trailing earnings and roughly in line with several fair‑value and target‑price estimates. [54]
- Sentiment is bullish but not unanimous: Many analysts are raising targets and remain positive, but the official consensus rating sits around Hold/Moderate Buy, reflecting a mix of enthusiasm and caution. [55]
For investors and traders watching the open on December 8, 2025, Ulta Beauty now looks like a high‑quality growth retailer priced as such. The key questions from here:
- Can the company deliver on its higher 2025 guidance and holiday expectations?
- Will margin expansion re‑accelerate as elevated investments normalize?
- And does the stock’s current price still leave enough upside to justify the risk after a nearly 50% 12‑month run?
As always, this article is for information and analysis only and does not constitute investment advice. Anyone considering ULTA should assess their own risk tolerance, time horizon, and portfolio needs—and consult a qualified financial adviser if necessary.
References
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