United Airlines (UAL) Stock Jumps on Travelport Deal and Bullish Analyst Targets

United Airlines Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ: UAL) is back in the spotlight on December 2, 2025, with its share price climbing after a new distribution partnership, fresh analyst calls and a recent credit rating upgrade. As of early afternoon trading, UAL stock is hovering around $105 per share, up roughly 4% on the day, extending a move from just under $99 on November 25. ^[1]

At the same time, Wall Street is leaning bullish: multiple firms have reiterated Buy ratings, and the average 12‑month price targets cluster around $125–127, implying high‑teens to low‑20% upside from current levels. ^[2]

Below is a deep dive into what’s driving United Airlines stock today, how analysts see 2026 shaping up, and what risks investors still need to watch.

Key Takeaways for UAL Stock on December 2, 2025

Price action: UAL trades around $105, up about 4% today and above last week’s sub‑$100 closes. ^[3]
New catalyst: United announced a multi‑year strategic partnership with Travelport to accelerate “modern airline retailing” and deepen New Distribution Capability (NDC) integration with agencies and corporate buyers. ^[4]
Analyst sentiment: TD Cowen and Jefferies both reaffirmed Buy ratings with $125 price targets, and the broader Street consensus sits near $125–127 per share. ^[5]
Growth outlook: Street forecasts call for revenue to rise from about $59.7 billion in 2025 to $64.3 billion in 2026, with EPS expected to climb from roughly $10.9 to $13.1. ^[6]
Valuation: At today’s price, UAL trades at around 10x trailing earnings and roughly 8x 2026 EPS, and at a PEG ratio under 0.5 by some estimates – an unusually low valuation for a double‑digit EPS grower. ^[7]
Risks: Government shutdown–related flight cuts, the Airbus A320 recall, fuel and macro volatility, and airline cyclicality all remain important overhangs. ^[8]

UAL Stock Today: Price, Valuation and Credit Backdrop

Price action and basic metrics

Different market data providers show slightly different ticks, but they all tell the same story: United Airlines stock is trading in the mid‑$100s with a single‑day gain of about 4%. MarketBeat shows UAL at $105.42 (+4.25%) as of early afternoon, while StockAnalysis lists $105.20 (+4.03%), and MarketScreener’s real‑time estimate is $104.86 (+3.7%). ^[9]

According to a fresh TD Cowen–linked summary on Investing.com, United carries a market capitalization of roughly $33.2 billion, with trailing twelve‑month revenue around $58.4 billion and a price‑to‑earnings ratio near 10.4. The same source pegs UAL’s PEG ratio at 0.49, reflecting high expected EPS growth relative to its valuation. ^[10]

Using consensus forecasts of $10.87 in EPS for 2025 and $13.10 for 2026, today’s share price implies roughly 9–10x 2025 earnings and about 8x 2026 earnings. ^[11] That’s a visible discount to the broader U.S. equity market and even to many industrial and travel peers – one reason analysts see room for multiple expansion if United continues to execute.

Moody’s upgrade underscores balance‑sheet progress

The bullish narrative is not just about earnings; United’s credit profile is improving as well. Moody’s recently upgraded United Airlines Holdings’ corporate family rating from Ba2 to Ba1, while the operating airline’s backed senior secured rating was lifted to Baa3 from Ba1. In the same action, 18 of United’s 20 Enhanced Equipment Trust Certificate (EETC) tranches were upgraded, signalling greater confidence in the company’s ability to service its debt. ^[12]

Internal metrics line up with that story. In United’s Q3 2025 earnings release, the company reported: ^[13]

Pre‑tax earnings of $1.3 billion and an 8.2% pre‑tax margin in the quarter.
Diluted EPS of $2.90, with adjusted EPS of $2.78.
Total operating revenue of $15.2 billion, up 2.6% year‑over‑year, on capacity growth of 7.2%.
Total debt and other financial liabilities of about $25.4 billion and ending liquidity of $16.3 billion, with net leverage around 2.1x on a trailing twelve‑month basis.

United also continues to chip away at leverage and return capital: Q3 saw the last of its MileagePlus‑backed bonds prepaid and about $19 million in share repurchases, contributing to roughly $612 million in buybacks year‑to‑date as of September 30, 2025. ^[14]

Travelport Deal: A New Catalyst for UAL Stock

The headline story on December 2 is United’s new distribution partnership:

What the Travelport partnership actually does

In a joint release with Travelport, United announced a long‑term strategic relationship to “accelerate modern airline retailing”. ^[15] Key elements include:

Early access to United’s NDC roadmap: Travelport will receive early access to United’s NDC‑enabled content and extras, allowing the two companies to co‑develop new merchandising features and bring them quickly into Travelport+. ^[16]
Deeper technical collaboration: Dedicated development resources on both sides will work to integrate richer content, better automation and more flexible servicing into Travelport’s platform for agencies and corporate buyers. ^[17]
Online Booking Tool (OBT) “extras”: United plans to bring a suite of OBT extras to Travelport’s Deem platform, including the ability to pool unused travel credits, enroll directly in MileagePlus, and use United Jetstream amenity funds as a payment method for ancillaries. These features will roll out over time, starting with initial capabilities in early 2026. ^[18]

From an investor’s standpoint, this is not just a tech press release. It potentially drives:

Higher ancillary revenue per passenger (better upsell of seat upgrades, baggage, Wi‑Fi, etc.).
Stronger corporate and agency relationships, which are crucial in premium and business travel.
Lower distribution and servicing costs, if more transactions move into digital self‑service channels.

Analysts and newswires alike framed this as a new model of airline–distributor collaboration, which helps explain why UAL shares are reacting positively today. ^[19]

Q3 2025 Results: Solid Operations, Slight Top‑Line Pressure

United’s latest reported quarter (Q3 2025) sets the fundamental backdrop behind today’s news.

Revenue mix and unit economics

United’s Q3 2025 numbers show a carrier that’s still growing capacity and revenue while working down unit costs: ^[20]

Total operating revenue: $15.2 billion, up 2.6% versus Q3 2024.
Passenger revenue: about $13.8 billion, up nearly 2% year‑over‑year.
Premium cabin revenue: up 6%, while Basic Economy revenue grew 4%, cargo revenue 3%, and loyalty revenue 9% compared with Q3 2024.
TRASM (total revenue per available seat mile): down about 4.3% year‑over‑year, reflecting pricing pressure and mix.
CASM (cost per available seat mile): down 2.8%, and CASM‑ex (excluding fuel and certain items) down 0.9%.

So while unit revenue dipped, costs fell even faster, and sheer volume helped: United operated its largest ever daily mainline schedule, carrying over 48 million customers in the quarter and flying more than 2,940 mainline flights per day. ^[21]

Brand and product investments

United continues to lean into a “premium plus efficiency” strategy:

More than half of the narrowbody fleet now has the airline’s upgraded interior and seat‑back screens, which management says has driven a 15‑point increase in inflight entertainment satisfaction since 2022. ^[22]
The airline has poured hundreds of millions of dollars into food and beverage upgrades, expanded United Club lounges (including a large new club at Denver), and rolled out TSA PreCheck Touchless ID in more hubs to streamline the on‑airport experience. ^[23]
United also operated the largest international schedule in its history, including aggressive transatlantic growth and announced new 2026 routes to cities like Split (Croatia), Glasgow, Santiago de Compostela and Bari. ^[24]

For shareholders, the point is that United is investing heavily in product differentiation and loyalty while still growing profits and reducing leverage – a combination that supports the bullish thesis behind the current re‑rating.

Analyst Ratings and Price Targets: Why Wall Street Likes UAL

Fresh calls from TD Cowen and Jefferies

On December 2, TD Cowen reiterated its Buy rating on United Airlines with a $125 price target, calling UAL its “Best Idea for 2026.” The firm points to expected improvements in Boeing production that should support United’s fleet renewal, driving “material tailwinds” for revenue and costs as larger, more premium‑heavy aircraft replace older jets. ^[25]

TD Cowen highlights that: ^[26]

United is trading at a low earnings multiple with a PEG ratio around 0.49, indicating undervaluation relative to its growth profile.
Fleet upgrades should enable “less spillage, more premium seating” (i.e., better yield and upsell) and “gauge growth” to reduce non‑fuel unit costs.
EPS for fiscal 2025 is forecast at roughly $10.95.

Earlier the same day, Jefferies also maintained a Buy rating while trimming its UAL target from $130 to $125, according to MarketScreener’s summary of MT Newswires coverage. ^[27] Even with the reduced target, Jefferies remains firmly bullish.

Street consensus: upside in the high‑teens to low‑20% range

Looking across the broader analyst community:

MarketBeat shows 13 analysts covering UAL with a “Moderate Buy” consensus (11 Buy, 2 Hold), and an average 12‑month price target of $125.67, implying about 19% upside from roughly $105 today. The Street’s targets range from $88 to $156. ^[28]
StockAnalysis tracks 10 analysts and classifies the consensus as “Strong Buy,” with an average target of $126.90 – about 20.6% above the current share price – and a high target of $156. ^[29]

In other words, the market narrative today is not just one rogue analyst pounding the table. Multiple firms, using independent datasets, cluster around a similar ~$125–127 fair‑value band for UAL stock.

Earnings and Revenue Forecasts: United’s 2025–2026 Trajectory

Street models currently outline a steady climb in both revenue and profit:

Revenue: Analysts expect United’s revenue to grow from about $57.1 billion in 2024 to $59.8 billion in 2025 (+4.7%), and then to $64.3 billion in 2026 (+7.7%). ^[30]
EPS: Consensus forecasts point to EPS rising from around $9.45 in 2024 to $10.87 in 2025 (+15%) and $13.10 in 2026 (+20.6%). ^[31]

Those numbers imply:

Margin resilience: Despite capacity growth and some unit revenue pressure, analysts expect United to expand earnings faster than sales, suggesting operating leverage and cost discipline.
Room for multiple expansion: If United delivers ~20% EPS growth again in 2026, a forward P/E near 8x looks inexpensive versus the S&P 500 and many travel peers, particularly as credit metrics improve. ^[32]

These forecasts are, of course, contingent on macro conditions, fuel prices, and the absence of major operational shocks – factors we’ll cover in the risk section.

Tailwinds Supporting the Bull Case for UAL Stock

Here are the main arguments bulls are making right now:

Fleet renewal and “United Next” strategy
- Larger, more fuel‑efficient aircraft with more premium seats are expected to boost revenue per seat and lower non‑fuel CASM, particularly as Boeing deliveries normalize. ^[33]
Premium and loyalty strength
- Q3 2025 saw premium cabin revenue grow faster than overall passenger revenue and loyalty revenue jump 9%, showing that higher‑yield segments are still healthy. ^[34]
Operational performance and scale advantages
- United delivered its highest third‑quarter completion factor ever while carrying record volumes of passengers and cargo, and remains the largest carrier across the Atlantic by available seat miles. ^[35]
Digital distribution and retailing push
- The Travelport partnership should accelerate the shift to modern, NDC‑driven retailing, improving ancillary take‑rates, mix, and potentially lowering distribution costs over time. ^[36]
Improving balance sheet and credit ratings
- Moody’s upgrade and lower net leverage give United more flexibility to invest, repurchase shares or weather downturns, and may help reduce financing costs on future aircraft and infrastructure projects. ^[37]
Supportive analyst and fund positioning
- TD Cowen calling UAL its “Best Idea for 2026”, numerous price‑target hikes in October, and broad Buy consensus highlight strong institutional interest. ^[38]

Key Risks and Headwinds to Watch

No airline stock is a one‑way ticket. Investors in UAL need to watch several material risks:

Government shutdown and regulatory constraints
- The ongoing U.S. government shutdown has prompted the FAA to temporarily reduce flights at up to 40 major airports by as much as 10%, which is already weighing on bookings according to industry trade groups. ^[39]
- Any prolonged disruption could pressure unit revenues and margins, especially at hub airports such as Newark.
Airbus A320 recall and operational disruptions
- Airbus recently issued a major recall affecting certain A320‑family jets. United reported that six aircraft in its fleet are affected and expects only minor disruption to a few flights, but the situation still adds operational complexity and potential near‑term cost. ^[40]
Cyclicality and macro sensitivity
- Airlines are highly sensitive to recessions, business travel budgets, and consumer confidence. If the global or U.S. economy slows more than expected, both premium and discretionary leisure demand could crack, undermining the bullish EPS forecasts.
Fuel prices and FX volatility
- Forecasted EPS growth assumes reasonably stable fuel prices and manageable currency impacts. Large spikes in oil or adverse FX moves can quickly erode margins.
Labor costs and industrial relations
- United has already booked sizable charges related to labor contract bonuses, and future negotiations with pilots, flight attendants or ground staff could push labor costs higher than modeled. ^[41]
Execution risk on digital and fleet initiatives
- The Travelport partnership and “United Next” fleet plan require flawless execution across IT, operations and customer experience. Delays or hiccups could defer the revenue and cost benefits analysts are currently baking in. ^[42]

Bottom Line: Is United Airlines Stock a Buy After Today’s Move?

From a news and fundamentals perspective, December 2, 2025 is a decidedly positive day for United Airlines stock:

The Travelport deal strengthens United’s position in high‑margin digital retailing and corporate distribution.
Moody’s upgrade and falling net leverage improve the company’s financial resilience.
Street forecasts still call for mid‑single‑digit revenue growth and mid‑teens to 20% EPS growth in 2025–2026.
UAL shares trade at single‑digit forward earnings multiples and a low PEG ratio, while the consensus 12‑month price targets suggest high‑teens to low‑20% upside. ^[43]

That combination explains why UAL is on the radar of both fundamental investors and momentum traders right now.

However, airline stocks remain inherently risky, and United is no exception. Government shutdown–related flight cuts, regulatory changes, potential macro slowdown, fuel volatility and operational surprises can all hit earnings faster than models adjust.

For investors considering United Airlines stock today, the key questions are:

Do you believe in the 2025–2026 EPS growth story (fleet, premium, loyalty, digital retailing)?
Are you comfortable with airline cyclicality and policy risk in exchange for a valuation discount and upside potential?

If your risk tolerance aligns with the sector, the current setup – strong execution, improving credit, new strategic deal, and supportive analyst coverage at a modest multiple – makes UAL one of the more compelling large‑cap airline names heading into 2026.

As always, this article is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Consider your own objectives and constraints, and consult a qualified advisor before making any investment decisions.

References

United Airlines (UAL) Stock Jumps on Travelport Deal and Bullish Analyst Targets – Is the 2026 Rally Already Boarding?