Updated: December 5, 2025
United States Antimony Corporation (NYSE American: UAMY) has quietly become one of the loudest tickers in the critical‑minerals trade of 2025. The micro‑cap producer, long overlooked, is now sitting at the intersection of U.S. defense policy, supply‑chain geopolitics and speculative trading.
As of early trading on December 5, 2025, UAMY is hovering around $6–6.20 per share, after closing at $6.12 on December 4, a 15% jump on the day. [1] The stock has swung between $1.06 and $19.70 over the last 52 weeks, underlining just how volatile this new “critical minerals” play has become. [2]
Behind the volatility is a string of big headlines:
- A five‑year, up to $245 million Pentagon contract to supply antimony metal to the U.S. National Defense Stockpile. [3]
- A new five‑year industrial supply agreement for antimony trioxide with a U.S. flame‑retardant fabric manufacturer. [4]
- A ramp‑up of Montana mining operations and increased 2026 revenue guidance to $125 million. [5]
- A proposed A$722 million takeover bid for Australian miner Larvotto Resources, aimed at expanding its critical‑minerals footprint. [6]
At the same time, the company remains unprofitable and heavily dependent on execution of these contracts and projects, which is exactly what makes UAMY so controversial—and so closely watched.
UAMY Stock Today: Price, Volume and Volatility
United States Antimony is trading around the mid‑$6 range on December 5, 2025, with the prior close at $6.12, up 15.04% from the day before and with intraday moves over 18% in recent sessions. [7]
Recent trading stats highlight just how wild the ride has been:
- 30‑day range: $5.16 – $8.60
- 90‑day range: $4.26 – $19.70
- 52‑week range: $1.06 – $19.70 [8]
Over the last three months, UAMY is still up sharply; coverage from mid‑November noted a 68.4% gain in three months, driven by the Pentagon deal and expansion of antimony supply lines. [9] At one point in October, a fast‑moving rally pushed the stock to roughly $16 per share, before profit‑taking and risk repricing dragged it back toward single digits. TechStock²+1
Short interest sits near 13% of the free float, while insiders and institutions hold roughly 17% and 27% of shares respectively, according to recent SEC‑based summaries. [10] That combination—limited float and elevated short positioning—helps explain the violent squeezes that have already appeared.
Options traders have piled in too. TipRanks’ options feed flagged 13,000+ call contracts traded with a put/call ratio of just 0.14 on December 5, and implied volatility approaching 140%, a classic signature of speculative upside betting. [11]
For anyone looking at UAMY, the first takeaway is simple: this is a genuinely high‑volatility stock, not a sleepy industrial.
The 2025 Catalysts Driving the Story
1. Pentagon Contract: Up to $245 Million for Antimony Metal
In September 2025, the U.S. Defense Logistics Agency (DLA) awarded United States Antimony a sole‑source, five‑year Indefinite Delivery / Indefinite Quantity (IDIQ) contract worth up to $245 million. The deal covers 6.69 million pounds (about 3,026 tonnes) of antimony metal ingots to be delivered to the National Defense Stockpile. [12]
The contract is part of a broader U.S. push to rebuild strategic inventories of critical minerals under a renewed stockpiling policy. Fastmarkets notes that antimony has become one of the most significant targets within these initiatives, with U.S. antimony consumption estimated at around 24,000 tonnes per year, while global mine output is roughly 100,000 tonnes, more than half of which comes from China. [13]
Key points about the contract:
- It is sole‑source: USAC operates the only two permitted antimony smelters in North America, which makes it a natural partner for the DLA’s domestic‑supply strategy. [14]
- It is IDIQ, not a guaranteed $245 million check: the DLA can place individual delivery orders up to the contract maximum.
- USAC has already received an initial delivery order of roughly $10 million, according to its latest 10‑Q and 8‑K filings; revenue will be recognized as shipments are produced and accepted. [15]
The contract has drawn scrutiny in the antimony market. Some participants question whether the DLA even needs to hold large antimony stocks and whether USAC can fully deliver metal rather than its traditional antimony trioxide product. [16] That debate is central to how sustainable investors view UAMY’s current valuation.
2. New Five‑Year Industrial Contract for Antimony Trioxide
In parallel with the Pentagon deal, USAC signed a five‑year supply agreement with a large U.S. industrial fabric manufacturer on November 7, 2025, covering antimony trioxide (ATO), which is widely used as a flame‑retardant additive. The company announced the agreement publicly on November 11 and later filed the contract as an exhibit to an 8‑K. [17]
Financial details—including volumes and pricing—were not disclosed. However, commentary from Simply Wall St. and others has suggested that together, the DLA contract and the new industrial deal represent multi‑hundred‑million‑dollar potential over several years, with some estimates placing combined contract value at around $352 million (though that number is not formally confirmed by USAC). [18]
For UAMY’s investment case, the important takeaway is that demand visibility has improved. The company now has:
- A defense buyer (DLA) focused on metal for stockpiling.
- A commercial buyer anchored in flame‑retardant textiles, which long‑term supports ATO volumes.
Both contracts should help underpin smelter utilization and justify capacity expansions.
3. Montana Mining Push and Raised 2026 Revenue Guidance
On October 30, 2025, United States Antimony issued a detailed update on its Montana antimony mining activities, particularly at the Stibnite Hill area. Key points from that release: [19]
- Mechanized bulk sampling began on October 7, following state Department of Environmental Quality (DEQ) approval on October 2.
- More than 250 tons of stibnite ore have been hauled for assay.
- The company has staked 102 federal mining claims, extending control over the local mineralized system.
- Preliminary metallurgical tests suggest the ore can be upgraded to meet military primer specifications for antimony products, which is crucial for defense uses.
- Expansion of the Thompson Falls smelter is underway, with new furnaces expected to be operational by January 2026.
Alongside this operational progress, USAC raised preliminary fiscal 2026 revenue guidance by $25 million to $125 million, citing the combination of mine development, smelter upgrades and contracted demand. [20]
That said, management also stressed that current daily mining volumes are still small and that high‑altitude operations will pause for winter, with full activity resuming in spring 2026. [21] In other words, the guidance is aspirational and contingent on a smooth ramp‑up.
4. Equity Raises and Balance Sheet
To fund this expansion, USAC has been active on the capital‑markets side:
- In August 2025, the company entered into a securities purchase agreement with a single institutional investor for $18 million in proceeds. [22]
- A separate registered direct offering of common stock worth around $26.25 million was announced with an existing institutional investor. [23]
- The latest 10‑Q shows cash of $18.34 million, $20.16 million in U.S. Treasuries, and an undrawn $10 million credit line secured by those securities, along with additional capital from an “at‑the‑market” (ATM) share program and warrant exercises. [24]
For existing shareholders, this means dilution—but also that USAC is better equipped to finance smelter expansions, mining development, and the front‑loaded working capital required to execute on its large contracts.
5. International Expansion: The Larvotto Resources Bid
In November, Australian business press reported that United States Antimony launched a A$722 million (approx.) takeover bid for Larvotto Resources, an Australian‑listed critical‑minerals explorer. The offer includes A$1.40 per Larvotto share, through a mix of cash and USAC stock, structured as six USAC shares for every 100 Larvotto shares. [25]
Larvotto’s portfolio includes antimony, gold, copper, cobalt and lithium projects across Australia (Hillgrove in New South Wales, Mt Isa in Queensland, and Eyre in Western Australia). The proposed acquisition:
- Would diversify USAC’s resource base beyond North America.
- Aligns with U.S. policy efforts to secure critical minerals from friendly jurisdictions like Australia. [26]
The bid is still subject to due diligence, shareholder approval and regulatory review; at this stage it is a strategic intent rather than a done deal.
6. Governance Changes: New Independent Director and Finance Committee
On November 25, 2025, USAC announced the appointment of Jon R. Marinelli as a new independent director and chair of a newly created Finance Committee of the board. [27]
According to the related 8‑K, Marinelli is a seasoned capital‑markets executive with over 25 years of experience and involvement in more than $285 billion worth of M&A, equity and debt transactions. His appointment expands the board to seven members, five of whom are independent, and formally elevates capital‑allocation oversight via the Finance Committee. [28]
For investors watching balance‑sheet risk and dilution, this governance shift is a non‑trivial point.
Q3 2025 Results: Explosive Growth, Persistent Losses
United States Antimony reported its third‑quarter and nine‑month 2025 results on November 12, 2025. [29] The numbers show a business that is growing quickly but has not yet crossed into sustained profitability.
Key figures from Q3 and the first nine months of 2025:
- Q3 2025 revenue: about $8.7 million. [30]
- Antimony sales (first nine months):$23.57 million, up 235% year‑over‑year.
- Total revenue (first nine months): up around 182% year‑over‑year.
- Gross profit: up 219% year‑over‑year. [31]
- Q3 net loss: roughly $4–5 million (10‑Q shows a net loss of about $4.78 million, while earnings‑call summaries round to $4.1 million), translating to EPS of about –$0.04. [32]
Drivers behind the continued loss include:
- Higher cost of goods sold as operations ramp up.
- Ongoing capex and operating costs for smelter upgrades and mine development.
- Financing expenses tied to new capital raises.
Crucially, much of the upside from the DLA contract and the new five‑year industrial agreement is only just starting to flow into the income statement. The 2025 financials are better read as a transition period than a steady‑state snapshot.
Market Sentiment: “Strategic Growth Story” or Mini‑Bubble?
Recent coverage and commentary show a split narrative.
Bullish Narrative: “National Security Leveraged to Growth”
Several outlets highlight UAMY as a prime beneficiary of the U.S. critical‑minerals strategy:
- A Fastmarkets analysis on U.S. stockpiling policy points to USAC’s DLA award as one of the most significant recent antimony deals, emphasizing that the company runs the only permitted antimony smelters in North America and plans to expand capacity to 300 tonnes per month in Montana by early 2026, with additional capacity ramping in Mexico. [33]
- A Yahoo Finance piece noted that UAMY’s stock had jumped 68.4% in three months, driven by expanding antimony supply lines and new mining projects. [34]
- Analysts at HC Wainwright raised their price target from $8.50 to $10.25, reiterating a “Buy” rating and pointing to strategic contracts and capacity expansion as the core thesis. [35]
From this perspective, UAMY is a small but strategically crucial player whose fortunes are tethered to a long‑term U.S. policy shift—not just commodity prices.
Bearish or Cautious Narrative: “Hype, Execution Risk and Dilution”
Other coverage has been more skeptical:
- A feature on TS2.Tech framed the October price spike—when UAMY briefly traded near $16 on record volume—as a classic “bubble or buy?” moment, highlighting that market cap expansion far outpaced current revenues and profitability. TechStock²
- A StocksToTrade piece from December 1 titled “UAMY Financial Struggles: A Deeper Dive” focused on a 7.21% single‑day decline and pointed to regulatory uncertainty and ongoing losses as red flags. [36]
- A December 4 follow‑up article, “UAMY’s Strategic Moves Raise Market Buzz,” acknowledged a 12.67% rebound but framed it squarely as a speculative reaction to headlines rather than a confirmation of long‑term fundamentals. [37]
Add in the fact that USAC has leaned heavily on ATM offerings, registered directs and warrants to fund growth, and you get a classic small‑cap mining profile: exciting optionality, but financed via dilution and with plenty of execution risk.
UAMY Stock Forecast: What Analysts and Models Are Saying
Wall Street Price Targets
Across mainstream equity research aggregators, the message is broadly—but not uniformly—bullish.
- MarketBeat reports that five analysts currently cover UAMY, assigning it a consensus “Buy” rating (four “Buy,” one “Strong Buy”) with an average 12‑month price target of $6.08, very close to the current price. The target range runs from $3.00 to $10.25, with HC Wainwright at the high end and another firm anchoring the low end. [38]
- StockAnalysis likewise shows five analysts and a consensus rating of “Strong Buy,” with a slightly lower average price target around $5.69, reflecting older or more conservative estimates. [39]
- TickerNerd highlights a median price target of $9.75 (range $9–$10.25) based on two Wall Street analysts, implying substantial upside from the mid‑$5 reference price used in their report; with the stock now nearer $6, the implied upside is smaller but still material. [40]
On balance, analyst opinion in early December 2025 is clearly positive: most see UAMY as a buy, but with a wide range of outcomes depending on execution, commodity prices and policy.
Quant and Technical Models
A variety of algorithmic and technically driven sites also publish short‑term forecasts:
- Intellectia.ai projects UAMY could trade around $5.8–$6.3 over the next week and around $8+ over one month, though its longer‑dated forecasts for 2026 and 2030 revert to “$0.00,” which is more a quirk of the model than a realistic view. [41]
- StockInvest.us estimated a “fair” opening price of $5.86 for December 5 and classifies UAMY as a high‑risk, high‑volatility stock based on its 30‑day and 90‑day trading ranges. [42]
These tools can be useful for short‑term traders, but they are inherently backward‑looking and particularly fragile when a company’s business model is undergoing structural change—as UAMY’s clearly is.
Strategic Backdrop: Antimony, China, and New Supply
UAMY’s story doesn’t exist in a vacuum. Two external trends matter a lot for the stock.
1. Supply‑Chain Tensions with China
Antimony has been swept up in broader U.S.–China technology and materials tensions. In August 2025, for example, a shipment of 55 tonnes of antimony concentrate from a Victorian mine in Australia, destined for a U.S. defense supplier, was held for months at China’s Ningbo port and ultimately sent back to Australia, disrupting supply to US Antimony. [43]
The incident, reported by Australian media, raised:
- Questions about potential contamination or tampering.
- Concerns over routing critical‑minerals supply chains through Chinese ports.
- Pressure on Australia and other U.S. allies to develop non‑Chinese processing routes for antimony.
This kind of disruption is precisely what the DLA contract and U.S. domestic‑supply initiatives are designed to mitigate—and what underpins part of the “strategic premium” in UAMY’s valuation.
2. New Domestic and Allied Supply Coming
At the same time, UAMY will not be the only antimony game in town:
- Perpetua Resources’ Stibnite project in Idaho recently received its final federal permit, clearing the way for a gold‑and‑antimony mine that could meet over 35% of U.S. antimony needs once operational around 2028, according to government and company estimates. [44]
- Fastmarkets notes that global antimony mine production was about 100,000 tonnes in 2024, with China dominating but other producers in Tajikistan, Russia, Australia, Turkey, Mexico and elsewhere also expanding. [45]
Over the medium term, new supply from allies could ease price spikes and reduce the urgency of stockpiling. That’s good for national security but potentially bad for speculative antimony price bets—another reason UAMY’s long‑term trajectory is not a one‑way street.
Key Risks for UAMY Stock
Even with powerful tailwinds, investors face several obvious risk clusters:
- Execution Risk
USAC must simultaneously:- Ramp up Montana and Mexico operations.
- Complete smelter expansions on time and budget.
- Deliver large volumes of metal, not just trioxide, under the DLA contract. [46]
- Contract Utilization Risk
The Pentagon’s $245 million contract is “up to” that amount; actual revenues depend on the DLA’s delivery orders and pace of stockpiling, which can change with budgets and policy. [47] - Commodity and Policy Risk
Antimony prices are influenced by global supply, Chinese export behavior and demand from sectors like flame retardants and ammunition. A softer market—or a shift in U.S. policy priorities—could weaken the thesis that domestic antimony is a must‑have strategic asset. - Dilution and Capital Structure
Recent capital raises have strengthened the balance sheet but diluted existing shareholders. Further capex needs or M&A (such as the Larvotto bid) could require more equity and debt. [48] - Share‑Price Volatility
With high short interest, heavily traded options and a small float, UAMY has already shown 50–100% moves over short periods. [49] That volatility cuts both ways.
What All This Means for Investors
From a news and fundamentals perspective as of December 5, 2025, United States Antimony sits at a crossroads:
- Positives:
- Large, multi‑year contracts with both the U.S. government and industrial customers. [50]
- Rapid revenue growth and improving gross margins. [51]
- Strengthening balance sheet and governance, with new financing and a more robust board. [52]
- Strong analyst support, with consensus “Buy” and some double‑digit price targets. [53]
- Negatives / Uncertainties:
- The company remains loss‑making and must execute a complex ramp‑up. [54]
- Contracts are high‑profile but not fully de‑risked; actual cash flows depend on delivery schedules and operational success. [55]
- The stock is extremely volatile and has already experienced both euphoric spikes and sharp pullbacks tied to headlines. TechStock²+2StocksToTrade+2
For traders, UAMY is likely to remain a headline‑driven, high‑beta proxy on U.S. critical‑minerals policy and defense stockpiling. For longer‑term investors, the central question is whether USAC can transform today’s contracts and projects into durable, profitable operations by the time new competing supply comes online later in the decade.
References
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