UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (NYSE: UNH) finished Tuesday, December 23, 2025 (23.12.2025) near the $325 level and traded modestly higher in after-hours, as investors head into a holiday-shortened Christmas Eve session with a heavy macro and policy calendar—but no major new company press release late Tuesday.
As of about 4:54 p.m. ET, UNH was indicated around $325.28 in after-hours trading, up modestly from its regular-session finish near $324.80. [1]
Below is what matters most for UNH after the bell today and what to keep on your radar before the market opens Wednesday, Dec. 24, 2025—including the key company narratives still driving sentiment, the latest analyst forecasts, and the specific events that could move the tape tomorrow.
UNH stock after the bell: where shares closed and where they’re trading now
UNH ended the regular session on Tuesday near $324.80 and later ticked up to about $325.28 in after-hours trading (as of roughly 4:54 p.m. ET). [2]
Tuesday’s intraday range was roughly $323.76 to $327.75, with volume around 3.0 million shares (notably lighter than many recent sessions—typical for the pre-holiday stretch). [3]
Why the modest after-hours move matters (even if it looks “small”):
- With thin holiday liquidity ahead of an early close, even routine headlines can lead to exaggerated price swings.
- UNH remains one of the market’s most closely watched “policy-sensitive” large caps, because changes in Medicare and broader health insurance rules can reprice future earnings expectations quickly.
The big picture: why UNH is still one of the most debated large-cap stocks into year-end
By many measures, 2025 has been a rough year for UnitedHealth’s stock, and that narrative is still shaping how traders interpret each incremental update.
One prominent market analysis published today described UNH as the Dow’s worst performer in 2025, citing a year defined by controversy, cost pressure, and multiple resets in expectations. [4]
Market data trackers also show UNH down about 35.8% year-to-date (as of Tuesday’s update). [5]
This matters for tomorrow because heavily-down year-to-date names often trade differently into:
- Tax-loss selling windows
- Low-volume holiday sessions
- Headline-driven “gap risk” (moves that occur between the close and the next open)
Today’s UNH-related developments: what’s new on Dec. 23
There wasn’t an obvious late-day company press release tied to Tuesday’s close. Still, two “today” items are worth noting because they can influence investor perception:
1) SEC filing: CEO Stephen Hemsley disclosed a 55,000-share gift
A Form 4 filed Tuesday shows Stephen J. Hemsley (CEO, UHG) reported a gift of 55,000 shares of UnitedHealth common stock, with a transaction date of 12/19/2025 and a reported price of $0 (typical of gifts). Importantly, the filing indicates it was not an open-market sale. [6]
Why it matters for the stock:
- Even non-sale insider transactions can draw attention in a nervous tape.
- Some traders treat “insider-related headlines” as sentiment signals during thin liquidity—right or wrong—so it’s worth being aware of.
2) Policy spotlight: Medicare’s AI-powered pre-treatment review pilot begins Jan. 1
Axios reported today that Medicare will begin AI-powered pre-treatment reviews for a limited set of services in select states starting January 1—a significant change for traditional Medicare that has also stirred controversy around prior authorization in Medicare Advantage and commercial plans. [7]
Why UNH investors care:
- While the pilot is not a direct Medicare Advantage rule change, it reinforces that utilization management and authorization practices remain politically and operationally sensitive—especially for large insurers.
The UNH story investors are still digesting heading into tomorrow
Even though some of these developments were reported over the past several days, they remain the core drivers behind the current “why is UNH trading like this?” conversation.
External audits and operational changes: UnitedHealth says reforms are underway
Reuters reported that UnitedHealth said audits by outside consulting firms of parts of its health services and pharmacy benefit operations would lead to operational changes, including greater automation and more standardized internal processes. [8]
Reuters also reported CEO Stephen Hemsley told stakeholders there were 23 action plans, with more than half expected to be finalized by the end of 2025 and 100% finalized before the end of Q1 2026. [9]
UnitedHealth’s own Independent Review Program page similarly states it is on track to complete 65% of action plans by the end of 2025 and 100% by the end of Q1 2026, and outlines focus areas such as policy governance, tracking corrective actions, risk assessment/coding controls, and manufacturer discount processes. [10]
HouseCalls and Medicare Advantage scrutiny remain a key overhang
Reuters highlighted that findings included issues around standardized documentation, including the company’s in-home health assessment program (HouseCalls) and diagnosis submissions tied to Medicare Advantage payment mechanics. [11]
Healthcare Dive reported that outside reviewers flagged areas for improvement in documenting and organizing certain policies and coding practices, and noted that the company faces criminal and civil DOJ investigations related to Medicare billing practices—allegations UnitedHealth has denied. [12]
UnitedHealth has indicated it plans to share results of a HouseCalls diagnosis-code review in Q1 2026. [13]
Why this matters before tomorrow’s open:
UNH is trading in a market where regulatory headlines can create overnight gaps. The “audit → process changes → regulatory/DOJ narrative” chain remains the primary source of that gap risk.
Forecasts and analyst outlook: what Wall Street expectations imply at current prices
Analyst consensus: “Hold” rating, but meaningful upside implied by average target
MarketBeat’s compiled analyst data shows:
- A consensus rating of “Hold” based on 29 analyst ratings
- An average 12-month price target of $385.54
- A wide target range from $198 (low) to $540 (high) [14]
At a ~$325 stock price, that consensus target implies high dispersion—analysts broadly disagree on whether the 2025 reset is “mostly priced in” or whether medical-cost and regulatory risks could keep compressing earnings power.
What that dispersion really means for traders going into a holiday session
When price targets are spread this far apart, it usually signals:
- Higher uncertainty about normalized margins (especially medical cost trend)
- Greater sensitivity to incremental updates (court, DOJ, CMS, audit follow-through)
- A market that may “overreact” in low volume—because positioning is cautious
What the options market is saying about near-term volatility
A key question into Wednesday: How big a move is the market pricing over the next few sessions?
One publicly cited expected-move estimate for UNH indicates a roughly ±$8.40 move into the Dec. 26, 2025 expiration window (about 2.57%). [15]
Separately, Barchart lists implied volatility around 28.84%, with UNH’s next earnings date shown as 01/27/26. [16]
Interpretation (without overpromising precision):
- The market is not pricing an “earnings-like” shock for tomorrow specifically.
- But the expected range is still wide enough that a single sharp headline (policy/legal/regulatory) could push UNH toward or through key technical levels.
What to know before the market opens tomorrow (Wednesday, Dec. 24, 2025)
Here’s the practical pre-market checklist for UNH investors and traders.
1) Tomorrow is an early close on Christmas Eve
The NYSE calendar shows markets will close early at 1:00 p.m. ET on Wednesday, Dec. 24, 2025 (with eligible options closing at 1:15 p.m. ET). [17]
Nasdaq’s holiday schedule also lists an early close at 1:00 p.m. on Dec. 24 and a full closure on Dec. 25. [18]
What that means for UNH tomorrow:
- Liquidity tends to fade fast after the open.
- Moves can look “random” because fewer participants are active.
- If you’re watching levels, the most meaningful action often happens early.
2) 8:30 a.m. ET: jobless claims data arrives a day early
The U.S. Department of Labor’s schedule shows the weekly Unemployment Insurance (jobless claims) release is scheduled for Wednesday, December 24, 2025 at 8:30 a.m. due to the holiday. [19]
Why UNH traders should care:
- Jobless claims can move index futures and Treasury yields.
- Even “defensive” stocks like large insurers can be pulled by broad risk-on/risk-off moves—especially in thin holiday trading.
3) Macro tone: today’s data was mixed
Today’s macro headlines included a report that U.S. consumer confidence fell in December (per Reuters’ coverage of the Conference Board data). [20]
Meanwhile, the BEA’s initial estimate showed Q3 2025 real GDP increased at an annual rate of 4.3%. [21]
This mixed macro picture can influence tomorrow’s open—mainly through:
- Index futures direction
- Rate expectations
- Defensive vs. cyclical sector rotation
4) Watch for follow-through (or fatigue) around the audit/DOJ narrative
The audit-driven “process reform” storyline remains front and center (and is likely to remain so into early 2026 as additional review results are published). [22]
Tomorrow’s question is less “is there new audit news?” and more:
- Does the market treat UNH as a stabilizing value story at ~$325?
- Or does thin liquidity amplify caution around Medicare-related scrutiny?
5) Mark your calendar: next major catalyst is late January
UnitedHealth says it will release full-year 2025 results and 2026 guidance on Tuesday, January 27, 2026, before the market opens, followed by an 8:00 a.m. ET teleconference. [23]
That matters now because, in the absence of major daily headlines, traders often position around the next known event where forward guidance can reset the narrative.
Bottom line: the UNH setup going into Dec. 24
UnitedHealth Group stock is ending Dec. 23 with a relatively muted after-hours move—a calm surface that hides a high-sensitivity story. The company’s operational reform timeline, Medicare/authorization scrutiny, and the ACA subsidy debate all remain key macro-policy currents around the stock. [24]
For tomorrow’s open (Dec. 24):
- Expect holiday-thin trading and an early close at 1 p.m. ET. [25]
- Pay attention to the 8:30 a.m. ET jobless claims release, which could set the tone for the entire shortened session. [26]
- Keep an eye on headline risk tied to Medicare practices and regulatory scrutiny, where even incremental updates can move UNH disproportionately in low volume. [27]
This article is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice.
References
1. stockanalysis.com, 2. stockanalysis.com, 3. stockanalysis.com, 4. www.schaeffersresearch.com, 5. www.marketbeat.com, 6. www.sec.gov, 7. www.axios.com, 8. www.reuters.com, 9. www.reuters.com, 10. www.unitedhealthgroup.com, 11. www.reuters.com, 12. www.healthcaredive.com, 13. www.unitedhealthgroup.com, 14. www.marketbeat.com, 15. optioncharts.io, 16. www.barchart.com, 17. www.nyse.com, 18. www.nasdaq.com, 19. oui.doleta.gov, 20. www.reuters.com, 21. www.bea.gov, 22. www.unitedhealthgroup.com, 23. www.unitedhealthgroup.com, 24. www.unitedhealthgroup.com, 25. www.nyse.com, 26. oui.doleta.gov, 27. www.healthcaredive.com
