New York, Feb 5, 2026, 12:19 PM ET — Regular session.
- Shares of UnitedHealth Group dipped during midday trading in New York, lagging behind several managed-care rivals.
- Investors zeroed in on CMS’s proposed updates to Medicare Advantage payments and risk adjustment for 2027.
- Focus now turns to sector earnings and key policy events scheduled for later this month.
Shares of UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (NYSE:UNH) dropped roughly 2.8% to $268.23 on Thursday, starting the day at $273 and hitting a low of $267.34 during the session. Humana edged down 0.3%, Elevance Health lost 1.8%, while CVS Health gained 1.3%. The Health Care Select Sector SPDR Fund declined 0.3%.
The selling matters because Washington has slapped a new price tag on Medicare Advantage — the privately run plans for U.S. seniors — and the numbers are razor-thin. CMS said its 2027 Advance Notice forecasts a net average payment increase of just 0.09% if finalized. It also proposed changes to the risk-adjustment model that could cut payments linked to diagnoses, including removing diagnoses from “unlinked” chart review records and some audio-only encounters. CMS set Feb. 25 as the comment deadline and promised the final rate announcement by April 6. 1
Thursday saw investors digest mixed signals in managed care after Cigna reported better-than-expected results but delivered a 2026 forecast that fell short of Wall Street estimates, despite its shares climbing roughly 3%. “Our assumptions incorporate appropriate prudence given the continued elevated cost environment,” said Cigna Chief Financial Officer Ann Dennison. 2
UnitedHealth’s stock swung sharply starting late January, after the government unveiled its proposed Medicare Advantage update and doubts resurfaced over the unit’s profitability. The shares plunged nearly 20% in their steepest one-day fall since April. Analysts flagged the potential for plan changes if payment rates stay tight. Bernstein’s Lance Wilkes predicted “membership growth will remain low,” while Leerink’s Whit Mayo labeled the update as “well below expectations.” 3
UnitedHealth, the biggest U.S. health insurer by market cap, detailed its reset in the Q4 report. CEO Stephen Hemsley said, “We confronted challenges directly and finished 2025 as a much stronger company.” The firm posted $447.6 billion in revenue for 2025 and projects 2026 revenue above $439.0 billion, with adjusted earnings expected to exceed $17.75 per share. 4
A regulatory filing revealed UnitedHealth has set its 2026 medical care ratio at around 88.8%, with a 50 basis point margin. This ratio tracks the share of premium revenue allocated to medical claims. The filing also projects a decline in Medicare Advantage membership by about 1.15 million to 1.2 million people next year. 5
UnitedHealth faces a tough gamble: if the policy numbers don’t swing in its favor — with flat headline rates, stricter risk-adjustment rules, and medical expenses that stay stubbornly high — the company could be squeezed. While insurers might adjust pricing and tweak benefits to guard profits, that strategy risks driving members away, either to rival plans or back to traditional Medicare.
Investors will be watching closely for insights on cost trends and benefit changes as CVS reports its fourth-quarter and full-year earnings on Feb. 10. Humana follows with its results the next day, Feb. 11. 6
