New York, Feb 1, 2026, 14:33 (EST) — Market closed.
- Shares of UnitedHealth Group Incorporated dropped 1.8% on Friday, closing at $286.93.
- Investors are keenly watching for any changes to U.S. Medicare payment assumptions ahead of the final 2027 rates being locked in.
- The initial 2027 Medicare Advantage rate proposal barely budged, thrusting insurers’ margins and benefit plans back into the spotlight.
UnitedHealth Group Incorporated’s shares dropped 1.8%, ending Friday at $286.93. Investors wrestled with the insurer’s forecast and the government’s new Medicare payment plan heading into the weekend.
The upcoming session is crucial as the selling pressure stems less from one headline and more from a ticking policy clock. Investors are gauging how much leeway Washington might have to ease a proposed 2027 payment adjustment for Medicare Advantage — private plans managed by insurers for seniors — and what impact that could have on earnings across the managed-care industry.
Shares took a hit earlier this week after the debate. UnitedHealth plunged nearly 20% on Tuesday, dragging down rivals as the initial Medicare Advantage rate update fell well short of analyst expectations. Baird analyst Michael Ha flagged the widening gap between rates and cost trends, saying it “will likely be insufficient” without cuts to benefits or plan withdrawals. (Reuters)
The Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services has laid out a strict timeline. Comments on the 2027 Medicare Advantage and Part D “Advance Notice” must be submitted by 11:59 p.m. Eastern on Feb. 25. The final 2027 rates are expected to be announced by April 6 at the latest, according to a CMS fact sheet. (Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services)
CMS described the proposal in its press release as a push to improve payment accuracy. Administrator Mehmet Oz said the agency aims to “modernize risk adjustment,” the method that boosts payments to insurers for sicker patients. Starting in 2027, CMS plans to exclude certain diagnoses identified through “unlinked” chart reviews from risk-score calculations. (Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services)
Investors are keeping an eye on whether CMS tweaks its assumptions before finalizing the rule. Kevin Gade of Bahl & Gaynor noted the market had been “ballparking” a range closer to 4% to 5%. Julie Utterback added that the industry expects updates “in a few months” and pointed out the proposal leaves out the government’s forecast for a separate 2.45% boost tied to coding-related payments. (Reuters)
UnitedHealth is feeling the pressure from policy changes on top of a cautious forecast. After last week’s earnings, the company set 2026 revenue guidance just above $439 billion, reflecting a 2% drop, with adjusted EPS expected to exceed $17.75. It also projected a 2026 medical care ratio near 88.8%, indicating that nearly 89 cents of every premium dollar will go to patient care. CEO Tim Noel slammed the proposed rate, calling it “disappointing” and warning it could lead to “very meaningful benefit reductions” and force a stricter look at the markets where UnitedHealthcare offers plans. (Reuters)
A securities filing on Jan. 27 revealed UnitedHealth submitted its quarterly results and accompanying investor materials via Form 8-K. (SEC)
There’s a catch for anyone betting on a price-driven bottom. If the final Medicare Advantage rate update sticks near the initial proposal—and medical costs continue outpacing pricing—insurers could be forced to cut extras, tighten networks, or retreat from some counties. Those steps risk slowing membership growth and squeezing margins.
Looking ahead to the week, traders will watch Washington closely while also focusing on insurers’ discussions around 2027 plan design and pricing. Key dates to note: Feb. 25 marks the deadline for public comments on the CMS proposal, with the final 2027 rate announcement set for April 6.
