New York, Feb 12, 2026, 15:02 EST — Regular session
- UnitedHealth climbed roughly 2% in afternoon trading, bucking the broader U.S. market selloff.
- Humana warned that 2026 profits face a hit due to Medicare Advantage “star” ratings, piling on to the group’s ongoing concerns.
- Eyes are on two dates in the Medicare Advantage rate-setting process: Feb. 25, when comments are due, and April 6, when the final rate notice lands.
Shares of UnitedHealth Group (UNH.N) jumped close to 2% Thursday, bucking a broad market downturn as investors sifted through new updates from the hard-hit U.S. managed-care space. The stock traded as high as $284.44 and as low as $275.86, settling near $284.37, up about 2%.
The recent uptick carries weight as Washington’s Medicare Advantage pricing cycle once again steers the 2026 and 2027 profit expectations for insurers. Traders aren’t hesitating—they’re selling at the first sign that reimbursements might lag behind medical costs, and snapping up shares when the numbers on the tape don’t look as rough as some had braced for.
Humana rattled investors Wednesday with a gloomy 2026 outlook, spotlighting a familiar headache: quality scores, which have the power to shift government bonus payouts. UnitedHealth, the dominant force in Medicare Advantage, tends to stand in for the entire sector in the eyes of investors when policy news breaks.
Stocks finished lower across the board, with the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow all losing over 1%. Tech and financial names took the hardest hit as traders looked ahead to the U.S. consumer price index due Friday. Yields on Treasuries retreated—this after Thursday’s robust jobs numbers dialed back bets on imminent Fed rate cuts. 1
Humana is projecting at least $9 in adjusted profit per share for 2026, falling short of what analysts had been looking for. The company has been hit by reduced Medicare Advantage “star” ratings, which have cut into its bonus payments and weakened earnings. Julie Utterback, an analyst at Morningstar, told Reuters that Humana’s drive to expand its Medicare Advantage membership could put even more pressure on margins. 2
UnitedHealth isn’t sitting on the sidelines when it comes to policy. On Wednesday, the company rolled out a report arguing that Medicare Advantage delivers better value, pointing to average savings for beneficiaries that land anywhere from 39% to 69% compared with traditional Medicare. Citing a national study, UnitedHealth also highlighted that people on Medicare Advantage spend 53% less than those enrolled in traditional Medicare. 3
UnitedHealth’s January guidance reset still weighs on investors’ minds. Back then, the company put out a 2026 revenue forecast topping $439 billion, about 2% below its 2025 outlook, and pointed to already announced cost cuts across its divisions. James Harlow, senior vice president at Novare Capital Management, told Reuters the Medicare proposal “starts to bring in worries about 2027 earnings growth.” 4
The Medicare schedule takes priority over earnings dates for now. CMS set a Feb. 25 deadline for comments on its 2027 Medicare Advantage and Part D proposals, with the final 2027 rate announcement coming by April 6 at the latest. 5
Regulators are still circling. The Federal Trade Commission’s probe into insulin pricing remains active for UnitedHealth’s Optum division and CVS Caremark, following Express Scripts’ settlement with the agency earlier this month, according to Reuters. 6
Managed care stocks split on Wednesday, with investors getting picky. Shares of Humana dropped 3.25%, but UnitedHealth climbed 2.08% and Elevance Health added 1.42%, according to MarketWatch data. 7
Still, there’s a catch: Medicare Advantage payments might wind up almost unchanged for 2027—right around the proposed flat rate. That’s bad news for insurers dealing with expensive care trends and slim margins. Chris Bond, spokesperson for America’s Health Insurance Plans, told Reuters, “Flat program funding at a time of sharply rising medical costs and high utilization of care will impact seniors’ coverage.” 8
Traders are eyeing managed-care stocks to see if the buying lasts through Friday’s inflation numbers. The focus also turns to the Medicare Advantage process, with hopes for a gentler outcome than the draft outlined. Mark your calendar for the Feb. 25 comment cutoff and the April 6 rate reveal.
