Upstart Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ: UPST) is back in the spotlight on December 18, 2025 (18.12.2025), with the AI-lending stock pushing higher as traders react to fresh partner momentum in credit unions—and try to square that optimism with a still-volatile macro and a sharply divided analyst community.
Shares were trading around the high-$40s on Thursday, up roughly 8% on the session at the time of this writing. [1]
That move follows a choppy stretch for UPST, where single-day swings have become a feature, not a bug. Today’s catalyst is fairly clear: a new credit union partnership that reinforces Upstart’s strategy of embedding its AI-powered underwriting into more lender-branded experiences—while continuing to rely on consistent funding channels to keep loan volumes flowing.
What’s moving Upstart stock on Dec. 18, 2025?
Tech CU partnership adds another credit union logo—and a distribution pathway
The most concrete headline feeding today’s UPST strength is Technology Credit Union (Tech CU) selecting Upstart to support personal loans now and auto refinance loans later.
In the announcement, Tech CU—described as a nearly $5 billion Bay Area credit union serving 177,000+ members—said it partnered with Upstart to expand consumer loan offerings. [2]
The detail investors tend to care about (because it speaks directly to how Upstart converts demand into funded loans): Tech CU began lending as a partner on the Upstart Referral Network for personal loans in September 2025, with plans to expand into auto refinance in early 2026. Under that network model, qualified applicants on Upstart.com who match Tech CU’s credit policies are routed into a Tech CU-branded application and closing flow. [3]
That matters because it’s not just “another partner.” It’s another proof point of Upstart’s attempt to do two things at once:
- Keep Upstart.com as a demand engine, and
- Let banks/credit unions own the customer experience (branding, relationship, cross-sell), while Upstart supplies the underwriting, automation, and funnel.
Upstart also used the release to restate a core metric it regularly highlights: more than 90% of loans are fully automated, with no human intervention by Upstart. [4]
Today’s price action: UPST rises, but volatility remains the baseline
By mid-session Thursday, UPST was up around the high single digits, sitting near $49 after closing at roughly $45 the prior day. [5]
MarketBeat, in an early trading note dated Dec. 18, said UPST traded up about 6.8% to roughly $48.09 at the time, while also pointing out that early-day volume was running well below its average. [6]
One day does not a trend make—but UPST rarely trades like a “slow and steady” financial stock. It trades like what it is: a high-beta, sentiment-sensitive fintech where funding conditions, credit performance, and growth expectations can reprice quickly.
Why partnerships matter so much for Upstart’s story
Upstart’s pitch is straightforward: use AI models and cloud software to underwrite consumer credit more accurately than traditional methods, then connect borrowers with lending partners. In practice, UPST’s stock often moves on a more specific question:
Can Upstart reliably convert application demand into funded loans at scale, across changing economic conditions?
That depends on two pillars:
Pillar 1: Lender adoption (banks + credit unions)
The Tech CU deal supports the “adoption” pillar. And it follows another notable partner-related update this fall: Pathward, N.A. partnered with Upstart to offer personal loans through Upstart’s marketplace, framing the move as part of expanding innovative financial solutions and access to credit. [7]
Pillar 2: Funding capacity (who buys/holds the loans)
Lender partnerships don’t help if loans can’t be funded consistently. That’s where Upstart’s institutional funding agreements come in.
On Nov. 6, 2025, Upstart announced a $1.5 billion forward-flow commitment from funds managed by Castlelake, L.P., with Castlelake agreeing to purchase up to $1.5B of consumer loans originated through the Upstart platform. Upstart described it as a new 12-month forward flow arrangement and the third agreement between the firms—explicitly positioning it as support for a “consistent loan funding platform” across varying economic environments. [8]
Put simply: Tech CU-type announcements tend to boost confidence that Upstart can keep adding distribution. Castlelake-type announcements tend to boost confidence that the loans can keep getting funded without Upstart having to warehouse too much risk on its own balance sheet.
Investors like seeing both gears turn.
The latest fundamentals: what Upstart reported and guided
The most recent full quarterly update from the company is its third-quarter 2025 report (quarter ended Sept. 30, 2025).
Key highlights Upstart reported for Q3 2025 included:
- 428,056 loans originated, up 128% year over year
- Total originations ~ $2.9 billion, up 80% YoY
- Total revenue $277 million, up 71% YoY
- GAAP net income $31.8 million (vs. a GAAP net loss in the prior-year quarter)
- Adjusted EBITDA $71.2 million (26% margin) [9]
Just as importantly for markets, Upstart also issued Q4 2025 guidance. For fourth quarter 2025, Upstart forecast approximately:
- Total revenue: ~$288 million
- GAAP net income: ~$17 million
- Adjusted EBITDA: ~$63 million [10]
For full-year 2025, the company guided to approximately:
- Total revenue: ~$1.035 billion
- GAAP net income: ~$50 million [11]
Those figures frame the push-pull behind UPST’s valuation debate: the company is showing meaningful growth and improved profitability, but it’s still operating in a sector where credit performance and capital markets sentiment can shift quickly.
Analyst forecasts on Dec. 18, 2025: mixed ratings, wide price-target range
Wall Street is far from unified on Upstart, and today’s coverage illustrates why.
MarketBeat’s Dec. 18 note summarized a consensus stance as “Hold” with an average price target around $60.50, while also listing multiple firms that had adjusted targets after the November earnings cycle. [12]
Business Insider’s snapshot showed an even broader framing: dozens of analysts with a median target in the high-$50s, but a wide high-to-low target spread (a sign of genuine disagreement about the business model’s durability and valuation). [13]
Even when analysts land in roughly the same place on a 12-month target, their reasoning often diverges:
- More bullish takes tend to emphasize improving loan volumes, partner expansion, and the potential for operating leverage if automation and funding scale together.
- More cautious takes emphasize credit-cycle uncertainty, the sensitivity of demand to rates, and the risk that growth requires concessions (pricing, partner economics, or balance-sheet usage) that pressure margins.
Insider activity investors are watching
Insider trading isn’t destiny, but in a sentiment-heavy stock, it can shape narratives.
A notable recent filing: Upstart co-founder and CTO Paul Gu reported buying 100,000 shares on Nov. 11, 2025, split across two entities (20,000 via a trust and 80,000 via an LLC) at weighted-average prices around $39.22–$39.23. [14]
That kind of purchase often gets read as a confidence signal—especially when UPST is being debated as either a recovering growth story or a structurally volatile lender-tech hybrid.
What to watch next: the 2026 catalyst calendar
Next earnings: date still unconfirmed, estimates cluster in February 2026
Upstart has not confirmed its next earnings publication date in the sources available today, and estimates vary by data provider.
- MarketBeat estimates the next earnings date around Feb. 10, 2026 (based on historical reporting cadence). [15]
- Zacks also points to Feb. 10, 2026 as an expectation based on past history. [16]
- Other market calendars and platforms list dates in the Feb. 10–Feb. 17, 2026 range. [17]
For UPST, that next earnings print matters less as a “beat/miss” headline and more as a test of three operational questions:
- Conversion rate: Are application-to-funded-loan rates holding up?
- Credit performance: Are losses behaving within expectations for recent vintages?
- Funding mix: Is Upstart growing without leaning too heavily on balance-sheet exposure?
Partner expansion: more “logo wins” (and product breadth) could support the bull case
Tech CU is specifically relevant because it includes both personal loans and a roadmap to auto refinance. [18]
Investors will watch whether Upstart can continue stacking partnerships that expand product coverage (auto, HELOC, small-dollar) rather than only repeating one product line. Broader product adoption tends to deepen integration and reduce the risk of being viewed as a single-cycle niche player.
The bull and bear cases for UPST in plain English
Why bulls are interested
- Evidence of partner momentum: Tech CU and other partner announcements reinforce that institutions still want AI-driven origination and underwriting embedded into digital experiences. [19]
- Funding support: Forward-flow agreements like the Castlelake commitment can reduce “funding anxiety,” one of the market’s biggest historical concerns with Upstart. [20]
- Improving financials: Q3 2025 showed rapid originations growth and positive profitability metrics, plus upbeat Q4/full-year guidance. [21]
Why bears stay skeptical
- Credit-cycle sensitivity: Consumer lending is unforgiving; if losses spike or macro conditions deteriorate, risk models and demand can change quickly.
- Valuation whiplash: Analyst target ranges remain wide, signaling disagreement about sustainable earnings power. [22]
- “Fintech + credit” complexity: Upstart isn’t a pure SaaS subscription story, and it isn’t a traditional bank. Markets sometimes punish hybrids when certainty drops.
Bottom line: Upstart stock gets a partnership pop, but the real test is repeatability
Upstart’s Dec. 18 rally is grounded in something tangible: another credit union partner adopting its platform and distribution model, with a clear pathway from personal loans into auto refinance next year. [23]
Still, UPST’s longer-term direction won’t be decided by a single partnership headline. It will be decided by whether Upstart can keep proving—quarter after quarter—that its AI underwriting can scale profitably, maintain credit performance, and stay supported by durable funding in changing economic weather.
Today’s move suggests traders are leaning optimistic. The next earnings window in February 2026 is where that optimism usually gets audited.
References
1. www.investing.com, 2. www.businesswire.com, 3. www.businesswire.com, 4. www.businesswire.com, 5. www.investing.com, 6. www.marketbeat.com, 7. www.pathward.com, 8. www.businesswire.com, 9. www.businesswire.com, 10. www.businesswire.com, 11. www.businesswire.com, 12. www.marketbeat.com, 13. markets.businessinsider.com, 14. www.sec.gov, 15. www.marketbeat.com, 16. www.zacks.com, 17. www.tipranks.com, 18. www.businesswire.com, 19. www.businesswire.com, 20. www.businesswire.com, 21. www.businesswire.com, 22. markets.businessinsider.com, 23. www.businesswire.com
