New York — December 16, 2025 (11:30 a.m. ET): The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) is trading near the 98.0 handle late Tuesday morning, under pressure after a shutdown-delayed U.S. jobs report and fresh evidence that growth momentum is cooling. At the same time, the greenback is being pulled in multiple directions by a “bumper week” for central banks—from the European Central Bank (ECB) and Bank of England (BoE) to a potentially pivotal Bank of Japan (BoJ)decision that could reshape key yield differentials. [1]
Below is what’s moving the Dollar Index today, what analysts are forecasting, and what markets are watching into the U.S. close (“after the bell”) and beyond.
US Dollar Index today: Where DXY stands late morning
By late morning in New York, DXY is down on the day and hovering around 98.0, extending a soft stretch that has brought the index to its weakest zone in roughly two months. [2]
Different data feeds show the same story: a range-bound but heavy dollar. Investing.com’s session snapshot shows DXY around 98.07, with an intraday high near 98.32 and a low near 97.87. [3]
Zooming out, DXY’s broader context remains bearish: Investing.com pegs the index down about 8% over the past 12 months, with a 52-week range roughly from the mid‑96s to about 110—a reminder that today’s move is part of a bigger downshift rather than a one-off wobble. [4]
The catalyst: delayed jobs data lands, and the dollar retreats
The main jolt for markets Tuesday was the release of shutdown-delayed U.S. employment data.
Reuters reported that the U.S. economy added 64,000 jobs in November, beating economists’ expectations, after a reported 105,000 decline in October. However, the unemployment rate rose to 4.6%, and traders focused on what that might mean for the Fed’s comfort level going into 2026. [5]
Crucially for market psychology, the report itself carried “noise” because it was delayed by the 43-day U.S. federal government shutdown, complicating the clean read investors usually want from payrolls. [6]
Rate pricing reacted in a familiar way: more talk of cuts, but not a straight line. Reuters’ reporting on fed funds futures showed traders briefly lifting the perceived odds of a January cut after the data, while still seeing the next likely cut later in 2026 (with June highlighted as an early focal point). [7]
Why that matters for DXY: when traders lean toward easier policy (or even just keep that possibility alive), U.S. yields can lose their advantage, and the dollar tends to struggle to sustain rallies—especially against currencies with their own tightening stories (hello, yen) or “higher-for-longer” narratives (hello, euro). [8]
Growth is still expanding, but momentum is cooling: PMI prints add weight
Alongside the labor data, a fresh set of business surveys reinforced the “cooling” theme.
S&P Global’s flash U.S. composite PMI slipped to 53.0 in December (still expansionary but the weakest since June), with both services and manufacturing easing. Reuters highlighted a notable detail: new business growth was the smallest in 20 months, and goods orders fell for the first time in a year—signals that demand may be losing altitude into year-end. [9]
But there’s a twist that matters for the dollar: the same survey showed input costs rising sharply, the highest in roughly three years, which can make the Fed more cautious about cutting too quickly even if growth is slowing. This “slower growth + sticky cost pressures” mix is one reason DXY price action has looked less like a trend and more like a tug-of-war. [10]
The DXY math today: euro, pound, yen — and why they matter
DXY is a basket, so today’s story is also about what’s happening in the index’s biggest counterparts:
- Euro: The euro pushed higher, with Reuters noting it traded around $1.1788 and touched its highest level since September, supported by a view that the ECB can stay steady while the Fed is pressured to ease. [11]
- Pound: Sterling strengthened toward the mid‑$1.34s ahead of the BoE decision, as traders priced a high probability of a rate cut but still reacted to UK data and rate expectations. [12]
- Yen: The yen firmed as markets looked toward a BoJ move that could take rates to 0.75%, a major contrast with a Fed that has already started cutting. [13]
This is why DXY can weaken even on “okay” U.S. data: if Europe and Japan are perceived as comparatively tighter (or tightening), and U.S. cuts remain in the frame, the dollar’s relative edge erodes.
Central bank week is the real “after the bell” story for DXY
Even though U.S. equities close at 4 p.m. ET, FX doesn’t stop—and the most market-moving catalysts for the dollar may actually be outside the U.S. trading day.
Here’s what’s in focus this week:
ECB (Thursday): steady policy, but the market is debating the next move
Reuters reporting says the ECB is widely expected to hold rates, while euro-zone data show growth that’s resilient but sluggish—enough to keep the “done cutting” narrative alive in markets. [14]
BoE (Thursday): a cut is in play — and sterling is reacting in advance
In the UK, Reuters highlighted rising unemployment (highest since early 2021) and a December composite PMI at 52.1, with markets pricing a strong chance of a BoE cut at the upcoming meeting. That mix can be tricky for DXY: a cut could weaken GBP, but if the dollar is broadly soft, sterling can still hold up relative to other peers. [15]
BoJ (Friday): the biggest potential shock to USD/JPY — and to DXY sentiment
Reuters reporting suggests the BoJ is set to lift rates to 0.75% and continue normalizing policy, which is a direct headwind for the dollar against the yen if markets see Japan closing the rate gap further. [16]
Bottom line: after the bell, DXY traders are likely to think less about U.S. stocks and more about how rate differentials evolve as Europe and Japan set policy.
Forecasts and analyst views on December 16: bearish trend, but oversold conditions
Today’s commentary across research desks has a common theme: the dollar is heavy, but not one-way.
1) “Near-term downtrend” with key downside targets
An Investing.com analysis notes DXY remains in a near-term downtrend and flags a “double top” near 100.40 as a technical marker, with a measured-move objective around 97.60 over time. [17]
ActionForex echoed that framework in its own scenario analysis, also referencing 97.60 as a downside objective if weakness accelerates. [18]
2) Oversold setup could produce sharp rebounds (especially into holidays)
Both Investing.com and ActionForex emphasize a key risk for dollar bears: positioning. When traders pile into a “Fed will cut” narrative, the dollar can become technically oversold—setting up quick short-covering rallies on even modestly stronger data or less-dovish signals. [19]
ActionForex, for example, outlines a “strong data” scenario that could snap DXY back toward longer-term moving-average resistance near 99.30. [20]
3) FXStreet’s framing: a tug-of-war, with a bearish lean
FXStreet’s take is that DXY remains “heavy” after the Fed’s recent cut, with rallies struggling into resistance unless upcoming top-tier data surprises hawkishly—keeping the bias tilted lower even as near-term bounces remain possible. [21]
What to watch “after the bell” today: the roadmap into the close and overnight
With the big U.S. data dump already out, DXY’s late-session direction typically comes down to three things:
- Treasury yields and rate expectations
If yields drift lower as traders price more easing, DXY often stays on the back foot. If yields stabilize or rebound, the dollar can squeeze higher even without fresh headlines. (Reuters’ broader market reporting today underscores how sensitive rate pricing remains to the unemployment rate and broader growth narrative.) [22] - Risk tone (equities, oil, and “safety” flows)
Reuters noted the dollar’s intraday behavior has also been shaped by safe-haven demand at times, but today the softer dollar helped support gold, a classic signal that the market is leaning toward lower rates and a weaker greenback. [23] - The next macro catalysts later this week
Reuters flagged U.S. CPI (Thursday) and PCE (Friday) as the next major data points on the calendar—events that can quickly shift Fed pricing and, by extension, DXY. [24]
The takeaway: DXY is near 98, and the close may matter less than the week ahead
As of late morning on December 16, the US Dollar Index is sliding toward 98, pressured by a mix of cooling U.S. activity signals, a complicated but market-moving delayed jobs report, and an ongoing repricing of the Fed’s 2026 path. [25]
But for traders thinking “after the bell,” the bigger message is this: DXY’s next decisive move may not come from the U.S. stock-market close—it may come from the central bank decisions and inflation data stacked up over the next 48–72 hours, with the BoJ’s tightening path and the ECB’s stance likely to be especially influential through the euro and yen channels. [26]
References
1. www.reuters.com, 2. www.reuters.com, 3. www.investing.com, 4. www.investing.com, 5. www.reuters.com, 6. www.reuters.com, 7. www.reuters.com, 8. www.reuters.com, 9. www.reuters.com, 10. www.reuters.com, 11. www.reuters.com, 12. www.reuters.com, 13. www.reuters.com, 14. www.reuters.com, 15. www.reuters.com, 16. www.reuters.com, 17. uk.investing.com, 18. www.actionforex.com, 19. uk.investing.com, 20. www.actionforex.com, 21. www.fxstreet.com, 22. www.reuters.com, 23. www.reuters.com, 24. www.reuters.com, 25. www.reuters.com, 26. www.reuters.com
