As markets head into the final full week of 2025, Monday’s U.S. economic calendar (December 15) delivers an early read on factory momentum via the New York Fed’s Empire State survey, a fresh pulse check on homebuilder confidence, and two closely watched Federal Reserve appearances—all against a backdrop of a newly reduced policy rate, renewed liquidity operations in Treasury bills, and lingering data disruptions tied to the 2025 federal funding lapse. [1]
While Monday isn’t the heaviest day for “big ticket” macro releases, it’s an important setup session: investors are trying to price the Fed’s next steps after December’s quarter-point rate cut, and they’re navigating a choppy information flow as some government statistics have been delayed, revised, or temporarily incomplete. [2]
Below is what’s scheduled for Monday, Dec. 15, 2025, why it matters, and how it fits into the week’s bigger macro narrative.
United States economic calendar: Monday, December 15, 2025 (all times Eastern)
8:30 a.m. ET — Empire State Manufacturing Survey (December)
This is the first U.S. factory sentiment data point for the new month and often acts as an early directional signal for manufacturing activity and pricing pressures. The New York Fed’s calendar lists the release at 8:30 a.m. ET. [3]
What economists expect: Market consensus tracked by CME/Econoday points to moderate but slower growth, with the index seen around 10.0 for December after 18.7 in November. [4]
Why it matters now: November’s report showed New York State activity increasing “at a solid pace,” with the headline index rising to 18.7 and new orders and shipments increasing significantly—helpful context as investors debate whether the U.S. economy is cooling gently or more abruptly. [5]
How markets typically react:
- A strong upside surprise can lift Treasury yields and support the U.S. dollar if traders interpret it as firmer growth and/or sticky price pressures.
- A sharp downside miss tends to boost rate-cut expectations and can weigh on cyclical equities and industrial-sensitive assets—though reactions can be muted if investors treat regional surveys as noisy.
9:30 a.m. ET — Fed Governor Stephen I. Miran speaks (inflation theme)
Fed Governor Stephen I. Miran is scheduled to speak at 9:30 a.m. on Monday; the Fed’s official calendar lists a Miran speech titled “The Inflation Outlook.” [6]
Why it matters now: Miran has been a notable voice on the Committee—Reuters reported he dissented again at the December decision, preferring a larger half-point cut. That makes his public comments particularly relevant for markets trying to interpret the Fed’s internal debate about how fast policy should ease in 2026. [7]
What to listen for:
- Whether Miran frames inflation as reaccelerating or stabilizing, and how he weighs tariff-related price pressures versus demand-driven inflation.
- Any clues about the Fed’s “near-neutral” stance and the conditions needed for another cut.
10:00 a.m. ET — NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (December)
Homebuilder sentiment is due at 10:00 a.m. Eastern, per NAHB’s release schedule (the December 2025 HMI release date is December 15, 2025, with a normal release time of 10:00 a.m. ET). [8]
Where the index stands: NAHB’s “builder confidence” gauge rose to 38 in November—still below the 50-line that indicates more builders view conditions as good than poor, but a modest improvement. [9]
Consensus for December: Several market calendars peg the consensus at 39 (vs. 38 prior). [10]
Why it matters now: Housing remains one of the most rate-sensitive parts of the economy. NAHB has emphasized ongoing affordability strain and demand-side headwinds. In its November release, NAHB’s chief economist cited “demand-side weakness” tied to labor market softening and “stretched consumer finances,” while still projecting a slight gain in single-family starts in 2026 after a 2025 decline. [11]
What to watch inside the report:
- The components (current sales, future expectations, buyer traffic).
- Any renewed increase in builder reliance on incentives/price cuts, which can signal margin pressure even if headline confidence stabilizes.
10:30 a.m. ET — New York Fed President John Williams: discussion on economic growth
The New York Fed says President John C. Williams will participate in a public discussion on economic growth at 10:30 a.m. EST in Jersey City, with moderated Q&A expected. [12]
Why it matters now: Williams is one of the Fed’s most influential communicators. With investors reassessing the path of cuts after the December meeting, his tone on growth, labor market rebalancing, and inflation progress can move front-end rates—especially if he leans more cautious than markets expect.
11:00 a.m. ET — SCE Labor Market Survey (data update)
The New York Fed’s Economic Indicators Calendar lists an 11:00 a.m. ET release for the SCE Labor Market Survey. [13]
What it is: The SCE Labor Market Survey is part of the New York Fed’s Survey of Consumer Expectations and focuses on job-market experiences and expectations—job offers, job transitions, and wage expectations (including the “reservation wage”). [14]
Why it matters: In an environment where headline labor data have faced timing disruptions and revisions, “expectations” surveys can influence the narrative on hiring confidence and wage pressure—especially if they show households becoming more cautious or demanding higher wages to switch jobs.
11:30 a.m. ET — U.S. Treasury bill auctions: 3-month and 6-month
Monday also includes auctions for 3‑month and 6‑month Treasury bills at 11:30 a.m. ET, widely tracked as real-time barometers of cash demand, funding conditions, and near-term rate expectations. [15]
Recent levels (context):
- The most recent 6‑month bill auction (Dec. 8) printed 3.580%, per both Investing.com’s calendar history and a Reuters auction results brief. [16]
- The 3‑month bill auction page shows the latest release at 3.650% on Dec. 8, with the next dated Dec. 15 at 11:30. [17]
Why Monday’s auctions matter more than usual: The Fed has just announced it will begin buying short-dated Treasury bills as a “reserve management”/technical operation to address liquidity and maintain control of money-market rates—an unusual macro overlay that can affect demand dynamics at the very front end. [18]
The macro backdrop heading into Monday: what’s driving expectations
1) The Fed just cut rates again—then signaled a slower path
At the December meeting, the Fed lowered its target range to 3.50%–3.75% and projections highlighted meaningful internal division over the 2026 path (with the median pointing to just one cut next year). [19]
That split matters because Monday’s Fed speakers (Miran and Williams) are among the first chances markets get to test whether the December message was “cautious pause” or simply “slower-but-still-cutting.”
2) Labor signals are mixed, and the data pipeline has been messy
Weekly initial jobless claims jumped to 236,000 in the latest report week (ending Dec. 6), though Reuters noted economists warned seasonal adjustment noise is elevated around the holidays and emphasized the four-week average as a steadier read. [20]
Meanwhile, the U.S. government shutdown earlier in 2025 created gaps and delays in key releases. BLS has published revised schedules and noted, for example, that October 2025 Employment Situation household-survey data could not be collected and won’t be retroactively gathered; other releases have been rescheduled or altered. [21]
For Monday’s market setup, that means traders may lean more heavily on alternative signals (regional surveys, sentiment gauges, and Fed commentary) until the delayed “hard data” prints land.
3) Housing remains constrained by affordability, even with rate cuts
A Reuters poll published in the last few days underscored the affordability challenge: experts projected only modest home price gains in 2026 and mortgage rates staying elevated, limiting relief for buyers. [22]
That context is important for interpreting the NAHB print: a small improvement in sentiment may still be consistent with a housing market that’s stabilizing—but not booming.
How to interpret Monday’s U.S. data: practical scenarios
If Empire State surprises higher
- Signals manufacturing resilience and potentially firmer pricing/hiring intentions.
- Could push 2-year yields higher on reduced urgency for additional Fed cuts, especially given the Fed’s already cautious 2026 median. [23]
If Empire State drops sharply toward zero or negative
- Reinforces “cooling” narratives and may revive talk of a faster easing cycle—even if the Fed’s dot plot is more conservative. [24]
- Watch whether the market reaction is amplified if Fed speakers sound dovish.
If NAHB rises but components remain weak
- Could indicate stabilization but continued buyer-traffic challenges—consistent with NAHB’s own commentary about headwinds and stretched consumer finances. [25]
If bill auction yields jump (tail higher)
- Can be read as weaker demand and/or higher near-term funding stress—especially relevant right after the Fed’s decision to resume Treasury-bill buying for liquidity management. [26]
Looking past Monday: why investors still call this a “big week”
Even though Monday’s lineup is relatively compact, it’s the gateway to a packed calendar.
Kiplinger’s weekly preview flags Tuesday’s delayed November jobs report (affected by the shutdown and incorporating October payrolls), plus other major releases later in the week, including CPI on Thursday. [27]
S&P Global Market Intelligence also highlights the week of Dec. 15 as one featuring flash PMI surveys, U.S. payrolls, and CPI—exactly the combination that can quickly reset growth and inflation narratives into year-end. [28]
Bottom line
For Monday, December 15, the U.S. economic calendar is less about volume and more about signal quality: a first look at December manufacturing conditions (Empire State), a real-time sentiment check on housing (NAHB), and two Fed communications moments that could reshape rate expectations at the margin. [29]
With the Fed newly in bill-buying mode for liquidity management and investors navigating lingering shutdown-related distortions in official statistics, even “second-tier” releases and speeches can have outsized influence—especially as liquidity thins into the final stretch of the year. [30]
References
1. www.kiplinger.com, 2. www.reuters.com, 3. www.newyorkfed.org, 4. www.cmegroup.com, 5. www.newyorkfed.org, 6. www.federalreserve.gov, 7. www.reuters.com, 8. www.nahb.org, 9. www.nahb.org, 10. www.forexfactory.com, 11. www.nahb.org, 12. www.newyorkfed.org, 13. www.newyorkfed.org, 14. www.newyorkfed.org, 15. www.investing.com, 16. www.investing.com, 17. www.investing.com, 18. www.reuters.com, 19. www.reuters.com, 20. www.reuters.com, 21. www.bls.gov, 22. www.reuters.com, 23. www.reuters.com, 24. www.reuters.com, 25. www.nahb.org, 26. www.reuters.com, 27. www.kiplinger.com, 28. www.spglobal.com, 29. www.kiplinger.com, 30. www.reuters.com
