NEW YORK, March 2, 2026, 13:27 EST — Regular session
- The S&P 500 hovered close to unchanged. Nvidia and Microsoft bounced back, lifting the Nasdaq, but travel stocks stumbled as oil prices surged.
- The ISM factory PMI remained in expansion territory, while the survey’s input-price gauge jumped to its highest level since October 2022.
- Traders are watching ADP and ISM services data in the middle of the week, with the U.S. jobs report due Friday.
The S&P 500 barely moved on Monday, held in check as Nvidia and Microsoft’s strength balanced out steep drops for airlines and cruise stocks—those names tumbled after surging crude jumped over 8% on Middle East escalation. By 11:42 a.m. ET, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was off 96.59 points, or 0.20%. The S&P 500 edged lower, losing 0.05%, while the Nasdaq Composite added 0.22%. Wall Street’s VIX volatility index hit 21.31. “At times when there is nervousness, people will go to the leaders in the market,” said Joe Saluzzi, co-head of equity trading at Themis Trading. Reuters
The sharp jump in oil prices is pushing inflation and interest rate expectations back into the spotlight as traders sift through the noise ahead of this week’s jobs numbers. Brent crude climbed 7.6% to $78.64 a barrel, while the dollar index advanced 0.59% to 98.65. “It’s mostly about exposure to oil,” said Steve Englander, who oversees global G10 FX research at Standard Chartered. Marc Chandler of Bannockburn Global Forex described the conflict’s resolution as “unclear.” Reuters
The Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing PMI dipped slightly in February, landing at 52.4 from January’s 52.6, but remained above the expansion threshold of 50. Factories faced a surge in costs, as the prices-paid index shot up to 70.5 from 59.0—marking the steepest level since October 2022. The report underscored ongoing concerns over tariffs pushing up input prices, with another layer of uncertainty tacked on after this weekend’s strikes on Iran sent energy costs higher.
Oil’s been volatile all morning. Brent soared as high as $82.37, then pulled back—last up $4.92, or 6.75%, to $77.79 a barrel at 11:06 a.m. ET. U.S. crude jumped more than 12% earlier, later settling up $3.87, or 5.77%, at $70.89. “Markets are acknowledging the seriousness of the conflict, but are also signalling that, for now, this is a geopolitical shock, not a systemic crisis,” said Priyanka Sachdeva, senior analyst at Phillip Nova. Reuters
Treasuries swung as investors weighed safe-haven demand against persistent inflation worries. The 10-year yield dropped to 3.926%—an 11-month low—then bounced back, sitting near 3.970%, Reuters’ Morning News Call noted.
Monday’s focus was the ISM manufacturing survey, with traders now eyeing Wednesday’s ADP National Employment Report and ISM services data next. Weekly jobless claims hit Thursday, and on Friday, the government drops February’s employment numbers at 8:30 a.m. ET. The March CPI report lands March 11.
Energy was locked in a battle with travel stocks under the hood. Nvidia picked up 2.8%, Microsoft gained 1.7%. Delta and United, though, each dropped over 2.5%. Cruise lines Carnival and Norwegian Cruise also tumbled, weighed down by the oil spike and new guidance. Shares of AES plunged after a $33.4 billion buyout from a BlackRock-owned Global Infrastructure Partners and an EQT-led consortium. Crypto-tied names moved up as bitcoin surged.
But it all comes down to whether oil’s rally holds and starts to seep into wider inflation numbers. A strong jobs print or faster wage gains would challenge bets that the Fed could still pivot later this year without letting prices slip out of hand.
Friday’s employment numbers are up next, and investors are zeroed in on payroll growth, the jobless rate, and wages for any sign of how inflationary pressures might be easing—or sticking around.
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