NEW YORK, July 14, 2026, 09:11 EDT
U.S. stock futures split sharply on Tuesday after a cooler June inflation report, with Nasdaq 100 futures up 1.38% and S&P 500 futures 0.48% higher at 8:33 a.m. EDT, while Dow E-minis were down just 0.01%. The divergence says less about the macro signal than the Dow’s unusual single-stock burden.
Before the CPI release, International Business Machines Corp. NYSE:IBM was estimated to be subtracting about 330 points from an indicated 450-point Dow decline. That is roughly 73% by calculation. The Dow is price-weighted, meaning higher-priced shares move it more, so IBM made the blue-chip gauge look much weaker than the wider futures market. The headline was distorted.
The distortion became clearer after CPI: the Nasdaq-Dow futures gap widened to 1.39 percentage points, while the S&P moved into positive territory. Lower inflation tends to help growth shares more because a larger share of their expected profits lies years ahead. Timing matters here.
| Futures contract | Move at 8:33 a.m. EDT | What it showed |
|---|---|---|
| Dow E-mini | -6 points (-0.01%) | Concentrated stock drag offset CPI relief |
| S&P 500 E-mini | +35.5 points (+0.48%) | Broad but measured rebound |
| Nasdaq 100 E-mini | +407.5 points (+1.38%) | Strongest response to softer inflation |
The CPI fell 0.4% in June, its biggest monthly drop since April 2020, and slowed to 3.5% year on year from 4.2% in May. Core prices were flat on the month and rose 2.6% from a year earlier, both below forecasts cited by Reuters. Energy fell 5.7% and was the largest contributor to the headline decline. The composition matters.
IBM’s preliminary second-quarter revenue was $17.2 billion, up 1%, as software rose 5% but infrastructure fell 7%; adjusted earnings were $2.93 a share. CEO Arvind Krishna said clients shifted quarterly capital spending toward servers, storage and memory to secure supply before expected price increases. “We did not adapt and move quickly enough,” he wrote, noting that large deals missed expected closing dates. The company will give full-year detail with final results on July 22. IBM Newsroom
IBM shares fell 22% after revenue missed the $17.86 billion analyst consensus and adjusted profit trailed the $3.02 estimate. The deeper investor message is that the AI build-out can shift a customer’s spending from software to hardware within the same quarter. That makes IBM’s warning a budget-allocation signal, not just an execution miss.
JPMorgan Chase & Co. NYSE:JPM showed the opposite earnings pattern: adjusted profit of $6.14 a share beat the $5.85 consensus and markets revenue rose 35%, yet the stock fell about 2% after the bank lifted its 2026 expense forecast to $107.5 billion from $105 billion. CEO Jamie Dimon pointed to “AI-driven capital investment, fiscal stimulus and the benefits of more efficient regulation.” The beat was not enough. Reuters
Wells Fargo & Co. NYSE:WFC earned $2.00 a share against a $1.72 estimate and grew net interest income — lending income minus deposit costs — 5% to $12.32 billion, but its shares were last reported down 1.3% in premarket trade. CEO Charlie Scharf said “consumer spending is higher, charge-offs and delinquencies are lower.” Strong fundamentals met a high bar. Reuters
| Company | Result against expectations | Premarket move | Main investor issue |
|---|---|---|---|
| IBM NYSE:IBM | Revenue $17.2 bln vs $17.86 bln; adjusted EPS $2.93 vs $3.02 | -22% | Execution and customer budget shift |
| JPMorgan NYSE:JPM | Adjusted EPS $6.14 vs $5.85; expense forecast raised | About -2% | Higher costs outweighed the beat |
| Wells Fargo NYSE:WFC | EPS $2.00 vs $1.72; net interest income up 5% | -1.3% | Strong results faced a high valuation bar |
Company moves were reported separately and are not time-synchronized.
Monday’s cash-market selloff set a low base for the rebound: the Nasdaq Composite lost 1.55%, the S&P 500 fell 0.79% and the Dow slipped 0.26% as crude jumped 9.4%. If the Nasdaq futures move holds, it would offset most, though not all, of the prior session’s decline. The bounce is partly repair.
But the inflation relief carries a clear risk. June’s energy decline did much of the work, while Brent crude climbed $2.80 to $86.19 a barrel on Tuesday amid renewed U.S.-Iran tension around the Strait of Hormuz. A sustained oil rebound could reverse part of June’s CPI help, and Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh’s congressional testimony later in the morning could shift rate expectations again. Today’s print may be rear-view data.
The opening test is whether broader S&P 500 participation and financial shares confirm the Nasdaq signal once cash trading starts. A near-flat Dow does not mean the inflation surprise failed; it means one high-priced stock and a demanding earnings tape are warping the headline. The market wants proof.
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