Wall Street reopens on Friday, December 26, 2025, after the market shut for Christmas Day and capped a holiday-shortened week with fresh record closes. The setup heading into the post-Christmas session is unusually “clean”: no big earnings slate, a light U.S. macro calendar, and a market that has been climbing on easing-rate expectations and a renewed bid for AI-linked mega-caps—all in thin liquidity that can magnify moves in either direction. [1]
Below is what investors should know before the opening bell, including the biggest headlines from the last several days, key forecasts/themes strategists are watching, and the calendar items that could still surprise traders.
Where the market left off: record closes heading into Christmas
In the last session before Christmas Day (the early-close Wednesday session on Dec. 24), U.S. stocks finished higher, with two of the three major indexes closing at record highs:
- Dow Jones Industrial Average: 48,731.16 (+0.59%)
- S&P 500: 6,932.05 (+0.32%)
- Nasdaq Composite: 23,613.31 (+0.23%) [2]
Just a day earlier (Dec. 23), the market had already logged milestone closes, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq hitting record closing highs again as big tech rallied:
- S&P 500: 6,910.10 (+1.09%)
- Nasdaq: 23,560.84 (+1.43%)
- Dow: 48,444.24 (+0.91%) [3]
That matters for Friday’s open because post-holiday sessions often begin with a tug-of-war between:
- Momentum buyers leaning into the breakout,
- and profit-takers looking to lock in year-end performance—especially if liquidity is patchy.
The “Santa Claus rally” window is open—history is supportive, but liquidity is the catch
Seasonally, traders are now inside the classic “Santa Claus rally” window—typically defined as the last five trading days of the year and the first two of January. Reuters noted this period began on Dec. 24 and runs through Jan. 5. [4]
A separate seasonal stat making the rounds ahead of Friday: Dec. 26 has historically been the most reliably positive single trading day of the year for the S&P 500, according to Bespoke Investment Group, with the index down only a small handful of times over decades and typically by limited amounts. [5]
But there’s an important qualifier: trading volume has been thin.
On Dec. 24, total volume was about 7.61 billion shares, well below the recent average cited by Reuters (about 16.21 billion). Thin conditions can amplify moves from relatively small orders and can cause price action to look more decisive than it really is. [6]
Also worth noting: Reuters reported the Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) finished at its lowest level since Dec. 2024, reinforcing how relaxed sentiment has become into year-end. Low volatility can persist—but it can also make the market more vulnerable to surprise headlines. [7]
The Fed and rates: “cuts eventually,” but the market has lowered expectations for a quick January move
The most market-sensitive theme heading into Friday remains the interest-rate path.
What recent data said
Two big datapoints in the past few sessions shaped the rate narrative:
- GDP: The U.S. economy grew at a 4.3% annual rate in Q3, above a prior estimate cited by Reuters (3.3%). Stronger growth is generally an argument for the Fed to be patient rather than rush cuts. [8]
- Jobless claims: Data released during the shortened week showed new applications for jobless benefits unexpectedly fell, a sign the labor market hasn’t rolled over. Reuters framed the broader backdrop as a resilient economy even as traders still expect cuts later. [9]
Strategists quoted by Reuters emphasized that firmer data can push the market toward “not-so-fast” thinking on near-term easing (i.e., fewer odds of an immediate January cut). [10]
Where Fed expectations stand
Reuters also reported that the market is still pricing about 50 basis points of rate cuts in 2026, but with low expectations for a January cut, based on CME’s FedWatch framing in the coverage. [11]
And stepping back: Reuters’ “week ahead” reporting earlier this month said the Fed had cut rates by a quarter-point for a third straight meeting, aimed at supporting a weakening labor market, but also signaled rates were unlikely to fall further in the near term while policymakers wait for more clarity. [12]
Why this matters for Friday: With the market at records, any renewed move higher in Treasury yields—or any repricing of “how many cuts, how soon”—can quickly hit high-duration growth stocks and index leadership.
AI and mega-cap tech are back in the driver’s seat—Nvidia’s Groq move is the newest catalyst
If 2025 had a single defining equity theme, it’s been the AI-led tech trade. The last several sessions reinforced that leadership as traders rotated back into the biggest names after a bout of valuation anxiety.
On Dec. 24, Reuters highlighted gains in heavyweight tech names including Nvidia, Amazon, Alphabet, and Broadcom, and pointed to a rebound after a prior selloff tied to valuation and capital-expenditure concerns. [13]
The headline to know before Friday: Nvidia–Groq licensing deal
One of the most significant late-week AI headlines is Nvidia’s strategic move involving AI chip startup Groq.
Reuters reported that Nvidia:
- secured a non-exclusive license to Groq’s inference chip technology, and
- is hiring top Groq executives, including founder/CEO Jonathan Ross and President Sunny Madra (plus additional engineering talent),
while Groq continues operating as an independent company under new leadership. [14]
Why investors care: AI spending is increasingly shifting from training to real-time inference workloads. Any signal that Nvidia is strengthening its inference stack—and doing it through licensing/talent acquisition rather than a traditional buyout—could influence sentiment across semis, AI infrastructure, and data-center supply chains.
Other AI-adjacent crosscurrents still in play
Earlier Reuters coverage also pointed to:
- Oracle weighing on AI-linked names at one point after a major data-center project, before the broader group rebounded. [15]
- Ongoing investor focus on whether heavy AI capex will ultimately dent profits—one of the biggest debates behind the volatility seen this month. [16]
Stock-specific movers and deal flow: what’s still likely to echo into Dec. 26
Even in a quiet holiday week, several single-stock stories were large enough to matter for Friday positioning:
- Dynavax surged after Sanofi agreed to buy the company for about $2.2 billion, according to Reuters. M&A pops like this can spill over into biotech sentiment. [17]
- ServiceNow fell after announcing plans to acquire cybersecurity firm Armis for about $7.75 billion, per Reuters. Large software/cyber deals can reset valuation comps across the group. [18]
- Micron hit a record close after a strong profit forecast tied to AI demand, Reuters reported—another reminder that the market is still rewarding “picks-and-shovels” AI beneficiaries. [19]
- Reuters also noted copper prices hitting record highs, lifting Freeport-McMoRan, an example of how commodity moves can still punch through thin holiday trading. [20]
Practical takeaway for Friday: In a low-liquidity session, outsized moves in a handful of large stocks (especially mega-cap tech) can disproportionately sway index direction. That’s especially true for the Nasdaq and S&P 500.
Market hours and holiday mechanics: yes, the market is open Friday—despite the federal-office closure
A quirky but important operational note for Dec. 26: President Donald Trump ordered federal government offices closed on Dec. 24 and Dec. 26, but U.S. exchanges are still operating normally.
Reuters reported that NYSE, Nasdaq, Cboe, and other venues said they would follow their existing schedules:
- Dec. 24: early close (as planned)
- Dec. 26: full trading day [21]
NYSE’s official calendar confirms early close at 1:00 p.m. ET on Dec. 24, 2025 (with normal hours resuming afterward). [22]
Bonds are open too
SIFMA also confirmed no change to its recommendation that U.S. bond markets remain open on Dec. 24 and Dec. 26, citing continued Fedwire operations (with an early close on Dec. 24). [23]
Why this matters: With both stocks and bonds open, the usual cross-asset signals—Treasury yields, curve moves, and credit tone—remain available to drive equity pricing on Friday.
The Dec. 26 calendar: “no major releases” doesn’t mean “nothing can move”
If you’re looking for a big macro catalyst on Friday, the calendar is light, but there are still a few items worth knowing about.
Most calendars flag Dec. 26 as quiet
A major-bank release schedule (Scotiabank’s calendar of economic release dates) explicitly lists Friday, Dec. 26, 2025: “No Releases.” [24]
Kiplinger likewise noted the week is extremely quiet on earnings, with no major earnings reports scheduled through Dec. 26. [25]
Watch for “shifted” Federal Reserve statistical releases
The Federal Reserve Board’s December 2025 calendar contains two holiday-related notes relevant to this week:
- For Christmas Day (Dec. 25): daily and weekly statistical releases scheduled for that day are slated to be released on Friday, Dec. 26. [26]
- For Dec. 26 itself (when federal offices are closed): releases scheduled for that day are pushed to the next business day, Monday, Dec. 29, while Fed payments and cash services operate normally. [27]
What to do with that: Don’t expect a CPI-style jolt at 8:30 a.m. ET—but if you trade rates or rate-sensitive sectors, keep an eye out for any rescheduled Fed releases that hit during the day (and be aware of the unusual timing around the federal closure).
One more data point: NY Fed Nowcast
The New York Fed’s national economic indicators calendar lists a New York Fed Staff Nowcast update on Dec. 26 (11:45). [28]
Nowcasts aren’t always market-moving, but in thin liquidity they can contribute to rate chatter—especially if they meaningfully change the growth outlook.
Global context: Europe is mostly closed, which can concentrate attention on U.S. price action
Friday is Boxing Day / St. Stephen’s Day in much of Europe. Euronext’s trading calendar shows that several major European venues are closed on Dec. 26, 2025, including Amsterdam, Brussels, Dublin, Lisbon, Milan, Oslo, and Paris, reopening for full trading after the holiday. [29]
Meanwhile, Japan’s exchange holiday calendar lists Dec. 31 as the late-December market holiday—implying Dec. 26 is not a Japanese market holiday. [30]
Why it matters for U.S. traders: With Europe largely offline, overnight cues may be thinner than usual, and the U.S. session can feel more “self-referential”—driven by domestic positioning, headline risk, and index-heavy flows.
What could still move the market quickly on Dec. 26
Even without a major 8:30 a.m. economic print, Friday’s session can still swing on a handful of familiar catalysts:
- Any repricing in Fed expectations
The market has been balancing “resilient data” with “cuts later.” A renewed surge in yields can pressure growth leadership quickly. [31] - AI headline velocity
Nvidia’s Groq licensing/talent deal is the newest signal that competition is intensifying in inference. That can lift AI infrastructure broadly—or spark rotation if investors decide the trade is crowded. [32] - Policy and tariff-related headlines
Reuters noted that tariff-related headlines and shifting rate expectations contributed to volatility during the year. In a thin market, even incremental news can cause outsize index moves. [33] - Year-end positioning and “window dressing” effects
With just a few sessions left in 2025 after the holiday (and the S&P 500 up strongly on the year, per Reuters’ broader “strong 2025” framing), price action can reflect performance management as much as fundamentals. [34]
Bottom line before the bell
The U.S. stock market opens Friday with record-high momentum, a seasonal tailwind, and limited scheduled catalysts—which often produces a deceptively calm tape that can still break sharply on headlines. Between the Fed’s still-evolving rate path, the AI trade’s return to leadership, and Nvidia’s latest strategic move, the most important driver into the Dec. 26 open is still positioning around big themes, not a single data release.
(This article is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice.)
References
1. www.reuters.com, 2. www.reuters.com, 3. www.reuters.com, 4. www.reuters.com, 5. www.marketwatch.com, 6. www.reuters.com, 7. www.reuters.com, 8. www.reuters.com, 9. www.reuters.com, 10. www.reuters.com, 11. www.reuters.com, 12. www.reuters.com, 13. www.reuters.com, 14. www.reuters.com, 15. www.reuters.com, 16. www.reuters.com, 17. www.reuters.com, 18. www.reuters.com, 19. www.reuters.com, 20. www.reuters.com, 21. www.reuters.com, 22. www.nyse.com, 23. www.sifma.org, 24. www.scotiabank.com, 25. www.kiplinger.com, 26. www.federalreserve.gov, 27. www.federalreserve.gov, 28. www.newyorkfed.org, 29. live.euronext.com, 30. www.jpx.co.jp, 31. www.reuters.com, 32. www.reuters.com, 33. www.reuters.com, 34. www.reuters.com
