US Stock Market Open Preview: What to Know Before the Bell on Monday, December 15, 2025

Wall Street heads into Monday’s session balancing two big forces: a renewed shakeout in the AI trade after last week’s tech-driven pullback, and a looming “data catch-up” week as delayed U.S. economic reports hit the tape and reset rate expectations for early 2026. ^[1]

Friday’s selloff did damage in the growth complex but didn’t fully break the broader market narrative. The S&P 500 closed down 1.07% at 6,827.41, the Dow fell 0.51% to 48,458.05, and the Nasdaq slid 1.69% to 23,195.17 as investors re-priced the near-term “AI payoff” story and watched Treasury yields climb. ^[2]

Monday (December 15) is lighter on headline U.S. macro releases than the rest of the week, but there are still two notable scheduled catalysts before midday—and the market will be positioning for a heavy slate of delayed labor and inflation data later in the week. ^[3]

Where U.S. markets left off: AI jitters return, yields rise

The tone into Monday is set by Friday’s reversal, when technology and semiconductor shares came under pressure amid renewed worries about the economics of massive AI spending. Reuters and other market coverage pointed to a margin warning from Broadcom and a weak Oracle outlook as key accelerants for the pullback. ^[4]

At the same time, rising yields added friction. The benchmark U.S. 10-year yield ended Friday around 4.19%, extending a second consecutive weekly climb, a reminder that even with policy rates coming down, the long end can still tighten financial conditions for equity valuations—especially in long-duration growth stocks. ^[5]

This split—pressure on the AI “leaders” while other parts of the market hold up better—has become the defining setup for early-week trading.

The Monday data to watch: Empire State survey and homebuilder sentiment

1) Empire State Manufacturing Survey (December) — early read on factory momentum

The New York Fed’s Empire State Manufacturing Survey is the first U.S. manufacturing pulse point for the week. It is scheduled for 7:30 a.m. Central (8:30 a.m. ET) on Monday, December 15. ^[6]

Consensus expectations compiled by Econoday/CME point to an index reading of 10.0 for December, with a consensus range of 5.0 to 15.4, versus a prior reading of 18.7—implying moderation rather than a collapse. ^[7]

Why it matters pre-open:

It’s one of the first “clean” macro signals after weeks of markets trading around delayed releases and shifting Fed expectations.
A downside surprise could amplify recession chatter in a market already sensitive to employment data credibility and revisions. ^[8]

2) NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (December) — housing confidence check

The NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) for December is scheduled for December 15, and NAHB lists the normal release time as 10:00 a.m. Eastern. ^[9]

The last published HMI reading (November) showed builder confidence at 38. ^[10]

Why it matters:

Housing remains one of the cleanest real-economy transmission channels for rates.
If builder sentiment weakens materially, it can reinforce the “softening growth + sticky inflation” debate that is driving sector rotation (away from expensive growth and into more cyclicals/defensives depending on the data). ^[11]

Fed backdrop: a recent rate cut, and a new focus on reserves

The Federal Reserve is still the anchor narrative, even after last week’s policy decision.

On December 10, 2025, the FOMC cut rates by 25 basis points, lowering the target range for the federal funds rate to 3.50%–3.75%. ^[12]

Two details from the statement matter for Monday’s positioning:

Policy disagreement is real. The statement recorded multiple dissenting preferences, underscoring a wider internal debate over inflation versus employment risks. ^[13]
The Fed flagged reserve management operations. The committee said reserve balances had declined to ample levels and it would initiate purchases of shorter-term Treasury securities as needed to maintain an ample supply of reserves. ^[14]

Separately, Reuters reported the New York Fed planned to buy $40 billion of Treasury bills to keep reserves ample—an operational move investors will watch alongside ongoing balance-sheet dynamics and money-market conditions. ^[15]

The practical takeaway for equity traders: rate cuts alone aren’t the whole story—liquidity plumbing, long-end yields, and market confidence in economic data are increasingly important variables.

The real catalysts are later this week: delayed jobs report and CPI

Monday is more about positioning than fireworks. The bigger risk to portfolios and index direction comes later in the week as delayed reports are released.

Jobs report: Tuesday, December 16 (delayed releases)

The week’s focal point is the November U.S. employment report, now scheduled for Tuesday, December 16, after disruptions tied to a government shutdown delayed several releases. ^[16]

Reuters’ week-ahead coverage noted economists’ expectations for nonfarm payrolls around 35,000—a figure that, if confirmed, would keep the “cooling labor market” narrative front and center. ^[17]

Why this report is unusually market-sensitive:

The Fed has already acknowledged elevated uncertainty and downside employment risks. ^[18]
There’s heightened attention on whether recent job gains have been overstated and how revisions may change the growth picture. ^[19]

CPI: Thursday, December 18

The BLS plans to publish the November 2025 CPI report on December 18, 2025, after the original schedule was altered. ^[20]

One important nuance: BLS notes this CPI release will not include certain 1‑month percent changes for Novemberwhere October 2025 data are missing. That technical limitation could complicate “clean” month-to-month inflation comparisons and may push markets to focus more heavily on year-over-year trends and category detail. ^[21]

Earnings in focus: Micron, FedEx, Nike, and consumer/industrial signals

While macro headlines dominate, earnings season isn’t completely quiet.

Market previews highlight upcoming results from Micron, Jabil, FedEx, and Nike as potential sector catalysts—especially as investors reassess the AI hardware supply chain and the health of consumer demand heading into 2026. ^[22]

How traders may frame these reports:

Micron: a key read-through on memory pricing, AI server demand, and capex discipline.
FedEx: a macro proxy for global trade and shipping volumes.
Nike: consumer spending and promotions, plus international demand.

In a market debating whether AI infrastructure spending is delivering near-term returns, company-level guidance may matter more than headline beats/misses.

Global crosscurrents: central banks and oil

Major central banks later this week

U.S. stocks won’t trade in a vacuum, particularly with big overseas central bank decisions clustered later in the week:

Bank of England (December 18): A Reuters poll of economists pointed to a quarter-point cut to 3.75%. ^[23]
European Central Bank (December 18): Reuters polling suggested the ECB is expected to hold rates unchanged. ^[24]
Bank of Japan (December 18–19): Reuters polling showed most economists expecting a move to 0.75% at the BOJ meeting. ^[25]

These decisions can move currencies and global bond yields—inputs that often flow straight into U.S. equity factor performance (growth vs. value, mega-cap vs. broader participation).

Oil: down week, inflation narrative implications

Oil markets also remain relevant to the inflation debate. Reuters reported crude settled down roughly 4% for the week, pressured by concerns about oversupply and the prospect of progress in Russia-Ukraine peace negotiations, even as geopolitical frictions persist. ^[26]

For U.S. equities, softer oil can ease headline inflation pressure—but it can also be interpreted as a signal of cooling global demand, depending on the driver.

The key theme into Monday: is the AI trade “re-rating” or “cracking”?

The biggest single question for Monday’s open isn’t whether AI matters—it’s how the market is valuing the timeline.

Bearish framing: Friday’s selling reflects a creeping concern that the AI buildout is outpacing near-term monetization, pushing investors to demand better margins and clearer ROI. ^[27]
More constructive framing: at least some strategists argue heightened skepticism is healthy and doesn’t automatically equal a bubble—more a repricing of expectations than a systemic unwind. ^[28]

This matters because the 2025 rally has been heavily influenced by large-cap tech and AI-related positioning—while late-year dynamics, index rebalances, and data risk can magnify moves in both directions. ^[29]

What to watch in the first 60 minutes after the open (Monday, Dec. 15)

1) Reaction to the Empire State print (8:30 a.m. ET).
With consensus at 10.0 vs. 18.7 prior, a miss could hit cyclicals and reinforce defensive bids; a beat could lift industrials and financials if yields don’t spike. ^[30]

2) Semiconductor leadership vs. broad-market resilience.
If semis stay heavy, it’s harder for the Nasdaq to lead—even if the Dow and value/cyclicals hold up.

3) Treasury yields and the “long-end problem.”
A quick rise in yields can pressure equity multiples, especially in mega-cap tech. ^[31]

4) Housing sensitivity.
The NAHB release at the usual 10:00 a.m. ET can influence homebuilders, banks, and rate-sensitive sectors. ^[32]

5) Positioning ahead of Tuesday’s jobs report and Thursday’s CPI.
Even if Monday is calm, intraday reversals can show up as funds de-risk (or re-risk) ahead of the week’s headline data. ^[33]

Bottom line for Monday’s open

For the U.S. stock market on December 15, 2025, the main setup is straightforward:

The market is coming off a Friday pullback led by AI/tech and rising yields. ^[34]
Monday’s key scheduled macro is the Empire State survey (consensus 10.0) and housing sentiment, but the real volatility risk is the delayed jobs report (Dec. 16) and CPI (Dec. 18). ^[35]
The Fed has cut rates to 3.50%–3.75%, but investors are now trading the quality of incoming data, the behavior of longer-term yields, and liquidity mechanics—not just the next quarter-point. ^[36]

In short: Monday may be about setting the chessboard. The decisive moves are likely to come when the labor and inflation data finally land. ^[37]