Wall Street was higher in early-afternoon trading on Friday, Dec. 19, 2025, as investors rotated back into megacap technology and semiconductors after a choppy mid-December stretch that had tested the market’s AI optimism. The upside came even as Nike’s sharp drop weighed on the Dow and traders navigated the extra cross-currents of “triple witching” — a high-volume expiration day for major equity and index derivatives that can amplify intraday swings. [1]
US stock market snapshot around 1:14 p.m. ET
By early afternoon in New York (around 1:14 p.m. ET), broad U.S. equity benchmarks were green, with tech leading the advance.
Latest available early-afternoon proxy (as of ~1:02 p.m. ET / 18:02 UTC):
- S&P 500 (via SPY ETF): up about 0.6% on the day.
- Dow (via DIA ETF): up about 0.4%.
- Nasdaq Composite (via ONEQ ETF): up about 1.0%.
- Nasdaq-100 (via QQQ ETF): up about 1.3%, underscoring the tech-heavy leadership.
- Semiconductors (via SMH ETF): up about 2.9%, one of the strongest pockets of the market.
Index read earlier in the session (11:34 a.m. ET, per Reuters):
The Dow was up 0.63%, the S&P 500 up 0.84%, and the Nasdaq up 1.13%. [2]
And according to Bloomberg, the S&P 500 was up about 0.9% as of 12:24 p.m. New York time, consistent with the market’s early-afternoon bid. [3]
Why the market is up: tech “rebound momentum” is back in the driver’s seat
The biggest force behind the day’s gains was a renewed push into AI-linked leaders and the semiconductor ecosystem, extending a rebound that began after Micron’s upbeat outlook helped reset sentiment around AI demand and chip-cycle tailwinds. Reuters described it as tech rebound momentum reasserting itself into year-end positioning — a key theme after investors had questioned whether AI infrastructure spending was translating into near-term returns. [4]
In the tape, semiconductors and megacaps did most of the heavy lifting:
- Nvidia (NVDA): up about 3.6% early afternoon. [5]
- Micron (MU): up about 6.7% early afternoon, following the prior day’s AI optimism boost. [6]
That leadership matters for headline indexes: big tech still carries outsized weight in cap-weighted benchmarks, so a “risk-on” pivot in megacaps can quickly lift the S&P 500 and Nasdaq even when other groups are mixed. [7]
Today’s biggest stock movers: Oracle jumps, Nike tumbles
Friday’s market story wasn’t just about indexes — it was about sharp single-stock moves that defined sector winners and losers.
Gainers: Oracle and Carnival stand out
- Oracle (ORCL) surged (up about 8.0% early afternoon) after news around a U.S. deal structure for TikTok’s operations, a catalyst that traders treated as both a corporate headline and another signal of ongoing AI/data-center demand narratives. [8]
- Carnival (CCL) jumped (up about 8.3% early afternoon) after upbeat profit guidance tied to resilient demand and pricing power. [9]
Losers: Nike and Lamb Weston sink on company-specific pressure
- Nike (NKE) fell sharply (down about 10% early afternoon). Reporting pointed to weak China performance and margin pressure — and broader concerns about tariffs and demand softness feeding into 2026 positioning. [10]
- Lamb Weston (LW) plunged (down about 24% early afternoon), one of the day’s most dramatic declines, after maintaining its annual sales outlook amid a tougher demand and uncertainty backdrop. [11]
These big divergences help explain why Friday’s session felt “two-speed”: the AI complex rebounded, while certain consumer and food names were punished for guidance, margins, or regional demand issues.
The macro backdrop: “distorted” inflation data, Fed cut expectations, and a cautious Fed signal
Investors were still processing a crucial tension shaping the late-2025 market narrative:
- Inflation appears to be cooling, and markets want to price easier policy.
- But the data is messy, and policymakers are warning against over-interpreting a single print.
Inflation cooled — but the report came with a warning label
U.S. inflation data released this week showed November CPI running at 2.7% year over year, with core inflation at 2.6% — cooler than many expected. But major outlets and economists emphasized reliability concerns due to data disruptions tied to the 43-day federal government shutdown and collection gaps. [12]
That uncertainty matters because markets have been trading “rates first”: when traders believe inflation is falling sustainably, rate-cut expectations rise — and equity valuations, especially in growth/tech, tend to expand.
Fed policy: markets see cuts in 2026, but officials sound patient
According to Reuters’ market reporting, traders were still betting on at least two 25-basis-point rate cuts next year, even assigning a meaningful probability to an early cut. [13]
But on Friday, New York Fed President John Williams poured some cold water on the idea of an urgent follow-up cut, saying there’s no immediate need to cut again after last week’s move — while also acknowledging the recent data distortions. Reuters reported the Fed’s current target range at 3.50%–3.75% after the latest reduction. [14]
Bottom line for the U.S. stock market today: equities were rallying on the direction of inflation (down), while the Fed emphasized the quality of the data (questionable) and the need for confirmation.
Housing and consumers: home sales edge higher, sentiment stays subdued
Friday also delivered fresh reads on the economy beyond inflation — and they were mixed.
Existing home sales: modest improvement, but inventory is tight
Reuters reported existing home sales rose 0.5% in November to a 4.13 million seasonally adjusted annual rate, slightly below the consensus expectation cited in the same report. The median existing home price rose 1.2% year over year to $409,200, while inventory fell to an eight-month low — a combination that keeps affordability pressure elevated. [15]
Mortgage rates had eased from earlier highs, but the same Reuters report noted that the widely watched 30-year fixed rate averaged about 6.21% this week, and the labor market’s softer tone is still a headwind for would-be movers. [16]
Consumer sentiment: slightly better, still historically downbeat
The University of Michigan’s final December sentiment reading came in at 52.9, down slightly from the preliminary estimate and still far below year-ago levels, reinforcing the idea that households remain uneasy about jobs, prices, and the outlook. [17]
For investors, these datapoints matter because the “soft landing vs. recession risk” debate is increasingly tied to whether consumer activity and housing stabilize as rates drift lower — or weaken further if the job market slows.
Triple witching: why today can feel extra jumpy
Dec. 19, 2025 is a triple witching session — the quarterly expiration of stock options, stock index options, and stock index futures — which often brings heavier volume and the potential for sharper intraday moves as big positions roll, expire, or get hedged. Reuters specifically flagged the risk of higher volatility tied to triple witching dynamics. [18]
This quarter’s event is especially notable: Bloomberg reported traders were facing the expiration of a record pile of options — about $7.1 trillion — raising the odds of sudden price swings even in a generally upward session. [19]
Axios also highlighted the scale of the options expiration and the way it can amplify “pinning” effects (where indexes gravitate toward large open-interest strikes) and fast late-day moves. [20]
For anyone watching the U.S. stock market “today,” triple witching is a key reason why a calm morning can turn into a volatile final hour — especially with year-end rebalancing underway.
Key policy and geopolitical undercurrents lifting tech sentiment
Beyond earnings and macro prints, a fresh Washington-driven semiconductor storyline helped keep attention on the AI trade:
Reuters reported the Trump administration launched an inter-agency review that could open the door to Nvidia’s H200 AI chip shipments to China (subject to review outcomes), a significant development given the market sensitivity to export rules, China demand, and U.S.-China tech policy. [21]
Separately, Reuters reported U.S. regulators cleared Nvidia’s investment in Intel on antitrust grounds, another headline reinforcing how central semiconductors remain to the policy-and-markets agenda. [22]
These stories matter because, in 2025, the U.S. stock market’s leadership has often come from the same place: large tech, chips, cloud, and AI infrastructure — sectors that are unusually exposed to regulation, geopolitics, and capex scrutiny.
Forecasts and outlook: Santa rally hopes vs. “sell signal” warnings
With the U.S. stock market near year-end, many “what happens next?” narratives landed today — and they point in different directions.
The bullish case: rate cuts + seasonality could lift year-end
Reuters’ week-ahead analysis noted investors are watching for a possible “Santa Claus rally” (the last five trading days of the year plus the first two of January). Reuters cited Stock Trader’s Almanac data showing the S&P 500 has historically risen about 1.3% on average in that window — though the article also emphasized that December 2025 hasn’t followed the usual script. [23]
The “bigger in 2026” forecast: a path to 8,000?
Axios reported Wall Street has turned more optimistic about rate cuts in 2026, and cited a JPMorgan strategist suggesting this environment could push the S&P 500 beyond 8,000 in 2026 under the right mix of growth and easing. [24]
The cautious camp: crowded positioning and a Bank of America “sell signal”
MarketWatch reported Bank of America’s Bull & Bear Indicator triggered a sell signal (citing a reading of 8.5) and pointed to historical patterns that have often preceded pullbacks after similar signals — a reminder that strong year-to-date gains can leave markets vulnerable to profit-taking. [25]
The middle ground: AI wobble may be seasonal, not structural
Another strand of analysis argued that recent stumbles in high-flying AI names may reflect December profit-taking and portfolio rebalancing, rather than a clean break in the AI theme. [26]
What to watch for the rest of today and into next week
If you’re tracking the U.S. stock market today into the closing bell, here are the big “drivers” that could still shift the tape:
- Late-day triple witching flows: rolls, dealer hedging, and expiration-related moves can accelerate after 3 p.m. ET. [27]
- Rates narrative: investors are juggling “cooling inflation” optimism with concerns that shutdown-disrupted data may not be fully reliable. [28]
- AI and semiconductor headlines: chip export policy and the AI capex debate remain central to market leadership. [29]
- Upcoming economic calendar: Reuters highlighted next week’s releases (including GDP, durable goods, and consumer confidence) as potential reality-checks for the soft-landing narrative. [30]
References
1. www.reuters.com, 2. www.reuters.com, 3. www.bloomberg.com, 4. www.reuters.com, 5. www.reuters.com, 6. www.reuters.com, 7. www.reuters.com, 8. www.reuters.com, 9. www.reuters.com, 10. www.reuters.com, 11. www.reuters.com, 12. www.wsj.com, 13. www.reuters.com, 14. www.reuters.com, 15. www.reuters.com, 16. www.reuters.com, 17. www.reuters.com, 18. www.reuters.com, 19. www.bloomberg.com, 20. www.axios.com, 21. www.reuters.com, 22. www.reuters.com, 23. www.reuters.com, 24. www.axios.com, 25. www.marketwatch.com, 26. www.marketwatch.com, 27. www.axios.com, 28. www.wsj.com, 29. www.reuters.com, 30. www.reuters.com
