NEW YORK (10:45 a.m. ET) — U.S. stocks were treading water late Tuesday morning as Wall Street digested a burst of delayed economic data, weighed a move higher in Treasury yields, and navigated the thin liquidity typical of the Christmas week trading stretch. As of around 10:45 a.m. ET, the S&P 500 hovered near 6,884, the Dow Jones Industrial Average sat around 48,402, and the Nasdaq Composite was near 23,433—all essentially flat as investors balanced stronger growth against firmer inflation readings and the renewed pressure of higher borrowing costs.
The “quiet” tape is notable because the backdrop isn’t: the government released an initial estimate of third-quarter GDP delayed by the earlier federal shutdown, along with durable goods data that delivered a mixed message on manufacturing. Meanwhile, consumer confidence slipped again in December, keeping a question at the center of today’s market: can the rally into year-end hold if growth stays hot but rates don’t fall fast enough?
Market snapshot at 10:45 a.m. ET: flat index action, low “fear,” record highs in view
By late morning in New York, the S&P 500 was holding near the upper end of its day’s range (about 6,863 to 6,892), with the index still within striking distance of recent highs. The VIX, Wall Street’s most-watched volatility gauge, was near 14, reinforcing the market’s calm tone despite the data-heavy morning.
That steadiness is consistent with what traders described as choppy, low-conviction trading after multiple up sessions: investors have been reluctant to take big directional bets heading into the holiday break—especially with the S&P 500 already near record territory.
The biggest driver: GDP jumps to 4.3%, but inflation measures heat up
The headline that set the tone for macro-focused traders: the U.S. economy expanded at a 4.3% annual rate in Q3 2025, up from 3.8% in Q2, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Because the federal shutdown delayed earlier releases, this “initial” report effectively substitutes for the usual sequence of advance and second estimates. Bureau of Economic Analysis
Under the hood, the BEA said the Q3 acceleration was powered by consumer spending, exports, and government spending, partially offset by a decline in investment. For markets, the key nuance wasn’t just growth—it was the inflation pulse embedded in the same release:
- The PCE price index rose 2.8% in Q3 (up from 2.1% in Q2).
- Core PCE (excluding food and energy) climbed 2.9% (up from 2.6%).
- The price index for gross domestic purchases accelerated to 3.4% (from 2.0%).
That combination—strong growth plus firmer inflation—helps explain why the bond market pushed yields higher and why stocks, despite holding near highs, weren’t sprinting.
Treasury yields rise: the market’s “rate-cut” story gets more complicated
Treasury yields moved up after the GDP data, with Reuters reporting the 10-year yield around 4.19% in the morning, while the Associated Press also described the 10-year yield rising to roughly 4.20% after the report.
Higher yields matter most for equity pricing when they come quickly and when they coincide with elevated valuations—particularly in growth and mega-cap tech, where future earnings are discounted more heavily. That’s a major reason why today’s tape has looked like a pause rather than a breakout.
Even so, rate-cut expectations are still embedded in market pricing. Reuters cited LSEG data showing traders continue to anticipate at least two quarter-point cuts in 2026, though the probability of a cut as early as January softened after the GDP surprise.
Durable goods: business investment looks resilient, but the headline fell
Alongside GDP, investors also had to process another shutdown-delayed dataset: October durable goods orders.
- Headline durable goods orders fell 2.2% in October (weaker than the -1.5% forecast on Investing.com’s calendar), largely dragged down by aircraft.
- But the more market-relevant read on business equipment spending—non-defense capital goods orders excluding aircraft—rose 0.5%, and shipments rose 0.7%, suggesting corporate spending on equipment remained firm as Q4 began.
Reuters also highlighted the push-pull inside the manufacturing story: tariffs have been a constraint, but AI-related investment continues to support parts of the industrial economy—an important theme as investors look into 2026.
Consumer confidence drops again: inflation, tariffs, and politics stay top-of-mind
At 10:00 a.m. ET, the Conference Board’s latest reading added a caution flag. Reuters reported the consumer confidence index fell 3.8 points to 89.1 in December, below economists’ expectations in the Reuters survey. Notably, write-in responses continued to cite prices/inflation, tariffs and trade, and politics among the biggest factors shaping consumer views.
The confidence slip matters because consumer spending is the main engine of U.S. growth. A GDP print driven by strong consumption looks great—until sentiment data hints that households may slow down after the holiday season.
Sector and stock movers: healthcare pop, defense bid, metals mania, tech steady
Even on a flat index day, individual stories are driving sharp moves under the surface:
Novo Nordisk surges on FDA approval for an oral Wegovy
Healthcare was in focus after Novo Nordisk won U.S. approval for a 25 mg oral weight-loss pill under the Wegovy brand. Reuters reported U.S.-listed shares jumped in extended trading after the decision, as investors saw the pill as a potential market-expanding catalyst in obesity treatment.
Defense names benefit from fresh Washington headlines
Reuters also flagged gains in Huntington Ingalls, after President Donald Trump unveiled plans for a new “Trump-class” battleship initiative—news that lifted shipbuilder sentiment. Reuters+1
Precious metals push to extremes; miners ride along
While equities stalled, metals kept moving. Reuters reported spot silver touched $70 per ounce for the first time, driven by industrial and investment demand, tighter inventories, geopolitical tensions, and expectations of further U.S. rate cuts. That surge has helped buoy precious-metals-linked stocks even when the broader market cools.
Why stocks are “stuck” near highs: holiday liquidity and a market at a crossroads
Today’s price action—flat indices, pockets of volatility in single names—fits the pattern investors often see in late December: fewer participants, fewer catalysts after big data drops, and more “position-protecting” than “position-building.”
Reuters described the broader setup as Wall Street taking a breather after a multi-session run, with yields rising and investors still leaning into the idea that easing is coming, just not necessarily immediately.
Add the calendar effect: U.S. markets are heading into an early close on Wednesday, Dec. 24 (1:00 p.m. ET) and a full closure for Christmas Day (Thursday, Dec. 25), according to the NYSE schedule.
Forecasts and analysis for the rest of the week and into 2026
1) The “Santa Claus rally” watch is officially on
Seasonal optimism is part of the market narrative. Traders often define the Santa Claus rally as the last five trading days of December plus the first two trading days of January—a window that, in 2025, is shaped by the holiday closures and the Christmas Eve early close.
2) Technical strategists are eyeing 7,300
A widely circulated bullish target today: Wolfe Research technical strategists see a path for the S&P 500 toward 7,250–7,300 early next year if the index clears key overhead levels, with volatility having “collapsed sharply,” according to an Investing.com report summarizing the note. Investing.com
3) Wall Street’s 2026 road map: earnings + AI capex + slower-but-still-lower rates
A broader mainstream outlook is also leaning constructive. CBS News reported that UBS expects the S&P 500 to reach 7,300 by June 2026 and 7,700 by the end of 2026, with strategists pointing to earnings growth—particularly in tech—and heavy AI investment as potential tailwinds.
4) Retail investors remain a force
One of today’s most important structural stories: Reuters reported retail inflows into U.S. stocks are set to hit a record in 2025, with individual investors accounting for roughly 20–25% of total activity (peaking higher at times), and analysts expecting retail participation to remain a meaningful force in 2026—especially if rate cuts drive “buy-the-dip” behavior. Reuters+1
5) A caution flag: sentiment is stretched
Charles Schwab’s weekly outlook highlighted a contrarian “sell signal” discussion tied to Bank of America’s Bull & Bear Indicator reaching elevated levels—an argument that optimism may be stretched even if seasonality is supportive. Schwab Brokerage
What investors are watching next
Even with the holiday ahead, the calendar isn’t empty:
- Initial jobless claims are due Wednesday, Dec. 24, a key labor-market check in a week where growth and inflation are already front-and-center.
- The BEA has scheduled the next major GDP update—the Q3 2025 updated estimate—for Jan. 22, 2026.
For the rest of today, traders are likely to keep one eye on yields and one eye on whether the S&P 500 can stay pinned near its highs without volatility returning. In a market where the index is barely moving, the stories moving underneath—healthcare breakthroughs, defense headlines, and a precious-metals surge—are doing most of the talking.
This article is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice.
