NEW YORK, March 26, 2026, 05:14 EDT.
Wall Street looked set for a weaker open Thursday, with U.S. stock futures in the red following another jump in oil—crude topped $104 a barrel. By 4:05 a.m. EDT, S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 futures had each slipped 0.4%, while Dow futures were down 0.3%, according to Reuters.
This shift is notable. In the last session, traders chased a rebound on the belief that tensions with Iran could subside and energy prices would drop. That hasn’t materialized—Strait of Hormuz closures persist, Brent crude has surged over 40% for the month, and Fed rate cut bets for this year have been all but erased.
Wall Street managed to end Wednesday in positive territory: Dow climbed 0.66%, the S&P 500 added 0.54%, and Nasdaq picked up 0.77%. Still, sentiment felt fragile. “A lot of frayed nerves,” said Michael James, equity sales trader at Rosenblatt Securities. Over at Cetera Investment Management, Gene Goldman commented the ongoing back-and-forth on proposals was “setting the stage for more negotiations.” Reuters
Brent crude climbed $2.08 to hit $104.30 a barrel as of 0638 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate notched a $1.93 gain, reaching $92.25 and clawing back some of the ground lost in Wednesday’s 2% slide. Fuel prices swung back into focus before the open.
Iran said it’s looking over a U.S. ceasefire proposal, but ruled out negotiating an end to the conflict. President Donald Trump, though, claimed Tehran is “desperate” for a deal. “The relief trade is starting to wobble,” said Charu Chanana, chief investment strategist at Saxo, pointing to markets now grappling with the inflation and rate fallout from the oil shock. Reuters
The Fed kept rates unchanged last week, sticking with the 3.5% to 3.75% range. Governor Michael Barr signaled policy could remain at these levels “for some time.” Traders have shifted: markets are pricing in a 37% chance of a rate increase by December, a reversal from previous bets on cuts. Reuters
Signs of stress aren’t limited to stocks. Morgan Stanley flagged that the bid-ask spread on two-year Treasuries jumped nearly 30% in March, despite a pickup in trading volumes. That points to thinning liquidity as investors scramble to adjust positions.
Tech stocks offered some support Wednesday. Arm shot up 16.4% after announcing a fresh AI data-center chip. AMD and Intel weren’t far behind, both gaining over 7%.
The next direction remains uncertain. A drawn-out conflict paired with rising energy prices threatens to keep stocks on edge. “Lots of people have retreated to the sidelines,” Mike Houlahan at Electus Financial noted. Should an actual ceasefire materialize and crude drop, that inflation premium could get erased from rates in short order. Reuters
March isn’t shaping up well so far. The S&P 500 has shed a little more than 4% this month, with analysts pointing to swings driven by headlines about a ceasefire and fluctuations in oil.
