NEW YORK, March 10, 2026, 1:32 PM EDT
Wall Street’s main indexes rose in choppy trading on Tuesday as crude retreated sharply from Monday’s spike and investors grabbed at signs the U.S.-Iran conflict could end sooner than feared. By 11:34 a.m. ET, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 236.94 points, or 0.50%, the S&P 500 had added 0.33%, and the Nasdaq Composite was up 0.54%. Reuters
The move matters because the oil shock had reopened worries about stagflation — slower growth with stubborn inflation — just as traders were looking for the Federal Reserve to start cutting rates later this year. Brent fell about 11% to around $88 a barrel and U.S. crude dropped to about $83.74, taking some heat out of that trade, though not removing it. Reuters
Investors now face a tighter test. The Bureau of Labor Statistics is due to release February consumer prices on Wednesday at 8:30 a.m. ET, and the Bureau of Economic Analysis is scheduled to publish the second estimate of fourth-quarter GDP and January personal income and outlays on Friday, reports likely to reset views on growth, inflation and the timing of any Fed move. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Angelo Kourkafas, senior global investment strategist at Edward Jones, said “some of the worst-case scenarios may be avoided,” but warned this was still a “headline-driven market.” LSEG-compiled data showed traders continue to price in the possibility of a quarter-point, or 0.25 percentage-point, Fed cut later this year. Reuters
Technology stocks did most of the lifting. Nvidia rose about 2%, while SanDisk and Western Digital jumped more than 5% each; separately, Deutsche Bank upgraded the U.S. and European technology sector to neutral on Tuesday and turned overweight on software, saying the long selloff tied to fears of AI disruption had likely run its course. Reuters
The rally was not broad and carefree. Energy shares slipped as oil fell, while an index tracking passenger airlines was down about 1%, showing investors still see fuel and freight costs as a live risk even after Tuesday’s retreat in crude. Reuters
Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research, said Monday’s reversal showed investors were looking for “any opportunity to jump back into the equity markets.” The relief tone spread beyond New York on Tuesday, with Europe’s STOXX 600 up 1.65% and MSCI’s broadest Asia-Pacific index outside Japan up about 3.4%. Reuters
But this trade can still turn quickly. Iran has threatened to keep blocking oil exports through the region, U.S. officials say the strikes are intensifying, and the Energy Information Administration said on Tuesday that Brent is likely to stay above $95 a barrel over the next two months if the conflict keeps supply constrained. Reuters
Consumers are another fault line. Average U.S. gasoline prices topped $3.50 a gallon on Tuesday, up 17% from roughly $3 before the conflict, and Luke Tilley, chief economist at Wilmington Trust, said oil in an $85-to-$100 range for several months could “materially increase the risk of recession.” Reuters
Investors were also waiting for Oracle’s results later in the day for a fresh read on AI spending. For now, Wall Street’s rebound looks more like respite than resolution, with oil, inflation data and war headlines still in play.
