U.S. stock futures are slightly higher early Wednesday, December 10, 2025, as Wall Street braces for a packed day: the Federal Reserve’s final rate decision of the year, fresh wage‑cost data, and a slate of earnings from AI and software heavyweights like Oracle and Adobe. [1]
Here’s a comprehensive look at what traders and investors need to know before the opening bell.
1. U.S. Stock Futures Point to a Cautious Green Open
Overnight, futures tied to the major U.S. indexes nudged higher, signaling a modestly positive start:
- S&P 500 futures were up around 0.1% in early Wednesday trade.
- Dow Jones Industrial Average futures and Nasdaq 100 futures also posted small gains as traders priced in a widely expected quarter‑point rate cut later today. [2]
The move comes after a mixed cash session on Tuesday. The S&P 500 slipped about 0.1%, the Dow fell roughly 0.4%, while the Nasdaq eked out a gain of about 0.1%, as investors stayed on the sidelines ahead of the Fed. A sharp drop in JPMorgan Chase—its worst one‑day decline since April—was the heaviest drag on the Dow after the bank warned that 2026 expenses will jump to about $105 billion, well above Wall Street expectations. [3]
Bond markets are calm but tense. The U.S. 10‑year Treasury yield is hovering near 4.18%, while gold trades just above $4,200 an ounce and silver has surged to record highs above $60, reflecting demand for perceived havens as the Fed prepares to move again. [4]
2. Fed’s Final 2025 Meeting: Third Cut Expected, Guidance Is Everything
Decision time: 2:00 p.m. ET, Powell at 2:30
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) wraps up its two‑day December meeting this afternoon. The policy statement is due at 2:00 p.m. ET, followed by Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference at 2:30 p.m. ET. [5]
Futures markets and most economists see an almost certain 25‑basis‑point cut in the federal funds rate to a 3.50%–3.75% range—what would be the third straight cut this year and the sixth since September 2024. [6]
A divided Fed and the all‑important “dot plot”
What matters most for markets today is not the cut itself but what comes next:
- Futures pricing suggests that traders expect only one or two cuts in 2026, and they’re laser‑focused on the Fed’s updated “dot plot” of rate projections. [7]
- Several analysts note that the Fed is unusually split, with at least a couple of policymakers likely to dissent even as the committee delivers a cut—an internal division that could colour Powell’s tone at the press conference. [8]
A more hawkish dot plot—for example, one that signals only a single cut next year—could force markets to price in fewer future easings, potentially hitting growth stocks, richly valued AI leaders and other rate‑sensitive assets. Conversely, a softer tone on 2026 could revive talk of a “Santa rally” into year‑end. [9]
Data delay headache: the Fed is flying partly blind
Because of the recent U.S. government shutdown, the Fed will decide policy without two of its usual marquee data points:
- The November jobs report has been pushed back to December 16.
- The November Consumer Price Index (CPI), originally slated for around now, has been rescheduled to December 18. [10]
An updated BLS calendar and a separate government data overview confirm that the November CPI release is now officially set for December 18, 2025, while some other reports, such as the trade deficit and wholesale inventories, have also been delayed. [11]
That lack of fresh inflation and payroll data increases the importance of wage and cost metrics landing this morning (see next section), and it raises the odds that Powell will emphasise data dependence and flexibility in 2026.
One more potential twist: T‑bill buying
A notable out‑of‑consensus call from Bank of America suggests the Fed could pair a rate cut with a surprise announcement of about $45 billion per month in Treasury bill purchases next year—so‑called “reserve management” operations to keep bank reserves “ample” and avoid money‑market stress. [12]
This would not be classic quantitative easing, but it could still be read as a supportive signal for liquidity and risk assets if it materialises.
3. Macro Data Before the Bell: Employment Cost Index in Focus
With CPI and payrolls delayed, this morning’s Employment Cost Index (ECI) has become the key macro event before the Fed decision.
- The ECI for Q3 2025—which measures employer wage and benefit costs—is scheduled for release at 8:30 a.m. ET today, after being postponed from its original October date due to the shutdown. [13]
Why it matters:
- The Fed is watching whether wage growth is cooling enough to align with its 2% inflation target.
- A hot ECI reading could strengthen the hawkish voices inside the FOMC, embolden dissenters, and make Powell’s message more cautious about further cuts.
- A benign or softer ECI would support the doves and could open the door for more easing in 2026—though officials may still lean conservative given the data gaps.
Markets will compare today’s ECI print with market‑based expectations and with other private wage indicators that have recently hinted at cooling labour demand and rising layoffs. [14]
4. Global Markets Overnight: Asia Soft, Europe Flat, Metals on Fire
Asia: Slight declines as traders wait on the Fed
Across Asia, most major benchmarks slipped:
- Indexes in Tokyo, Sydney, Seoul, Hong Kong and Shanghai traded slightly lower, with volumes muted as investors braced for the Fed’s decision later in the day. [15]
- Regional sentiment remains anchored to the assumption that the Fed will deliver its third rate cut of 2025, but investors are wary that the accompanying guidance might tamp down expectations for additional easing next year. [16]
Europe: Marginal pullback, flat U.S. futures
In Europe, the Stoxx 600 edged down about 0.1%, mirroring a global “wait‑and‑see” stance. U.S. equity futures were roughly 0.1% higher in early European trade, underlining just how narrow the pre‑Fed trading range has become. [17]
Meanwhile:
- Silver extended its spectacular 2025 rally, breaking above $60 an ounce to a fresh record around $61.45.
- Gold hovered near $4,200, not far from the all‑time high it set in October. [18]
The move in precious metals reflects a mix of inflation hedging, safe‑haven demand, and heavy trend‑following flows tied to AI‑driven demand for metals used in solar and data‑center infrastructure.
5. Corporate Stories to Watch at the Open
5.1 AI and Software Earnings: Oracle, Adobe and Synopsys Take Center Stage
Tonight’s earnings slate is dominated by AI‑exposed software and chip‑design names:
- Oracle (ORCL)
- Adobe (ADBE)
- Synopsys (SNPS)
- Planet Labs (PL)
All are set to report after the closing bell, and options markets are pricing outsized moves, particularly for Oracle and Broadcom later this week. Investopedia+3TechStock²+3Reuters+3
Key angles investors are watching:
- Oracle:
- Cloud and AI‑infrastructure revenue growth and backlog, especially following high‑profile deals in the AI space.
- Rising debt levels and capex tied to data‑center build‑outs.
- Options pricing implies a double‑digit swing around the earnings release, suggesting that even a modest miss or cautious outlook could trigger volatility. TechStock²+1
- Adobe:
- Adoption of generative‑AI features across Creative Cloud and Document Cloud.
- Any indications that AI tools are supporting, rather than cannibalising, subscription pricing power.
- Synopsys:
- Demand for chip‑design tools linked to the AI hardware boom.
- Commentary on licensing trends with hyperscalers and leading semiconductor producers.
Broader AI sentiment will be shaped further on Thursday, when Broadcom (AVGO) reports Q4 results, with the street focused on AI revenue growth (expected to be strong), a huge backlog and the sustainability of margins after a 65% year‑to‑date rally. [19]
5.2 Pre‑Market Earnings: Chewy, Uranium Energy and More
Ahead of the open, a handful of mid‑cap and specialty names help set the tone for risk appetite:
- Chewy (CHWY)
- Uranium Energy (UEC)
- REV Group (REVG)
- Photronics (PLAB)
- Daktronics (DAKT)
- VersaBank (VBNK)
- J. Jill (JILL)
Previews highlight pressure on consumer discretionary spending, ongoing enthusiasm for nuclear‑related plays, and heightened volatility in smaller, less liquid names. TechStock²+1
While none of these companies individually rival a mega‑cap tech stock, their results will feed into broader narratives around consumer resilience, capex, and appetite for smaller growth names in a high‑rate environment.
5.3 Carvana’s S&P 500 Promotion: A Volatility Magnet
Carvana (CVNA) is one of today’s headline individual stories:
- S&P Dow Jones Indices announced that Carvana will join the S&P 500 on December 22, replacing Mohawk Industries. [20]
- The online used‑car platform’s stock has soared more than 100% year‑to‑date amid a dramatic turnaround in profitability and renewed optimism about its business model. [21]
Into today’s open, traders are watching:
- Whether the stock can hold its recent surge or whether profit‑taking emerges after the inclusion news.
- Early signs of index‑fund and quant‑fund rebalancing, which could generate heavy buy flows and intraday swings. TechStock²+1
Carvana has effectively become a high‑beta proxy for both risk appetite and the market’s willingness to reward aggressive turnaround stories heading into year‑end.
5.4 Home Depot: Cautious 2026 Outlook Puts Housing & DIY Under the Microscope
Home Depot (HD) is another key bellwether to watch after a closely watched investor day on Tuesday:
- The company reaffirmed 2025 guidance but forecast flat to 2% comparable‑sales growth and flat to 4% EPS growth for 2026, both below consensus estimates. [22]
- Weak demand for large‑ticket DIY projects, elevated mortgage rates and a still‑sluggish housing market are all weighing on near‑term growth. [23]
Home Depot shares fell about 2% in pre‑market trading after the outlook, and today’s session will test whether investors see the updated guidance as “reset and realistic” or the start of a longer downshift in the home‑improvement cycle. [24]
Rate‑sensitive housing and retail peers—including Lowe’s, big‑box chains and homebuilders—could trade in sympathy as the market digests both the Fed decision and the company’s “grind, not surge” narrative for 2025–26.
5.5 Banks: JPMorgan’s Expense Shock Still Reverberating
On Tuesday, JPMorgan Chase (JPM) signaled that 2026 expenses would climb to around $105 billion, versus analyst expectations near $101 billion, citing investments in AI, compensation, marketing, card growth and branch expansion. [25]
The stock fell roughly 4.3%–4.7%, dragging on the Dow and sparking questions about whether other major banks will soon follow with their own “spend to grow” plans. That theme—heavy investment in AI and digital infrastructure even as growth slows—could remain a key talking point today if financials stay under pressure.
5.6 GameStop and the Meme‑Stock Echo
GameStop (GME) delivered Q3 revenue of about $821 million, well below analyst expectations near $987 million, as its slow pivot from physical game sales to digital channels continues to weigh on results. The stock fell nearly 6% in after‑hours trading after the release. [26]
The company now serves more as a sentiment barometer than a fundamental bellwether, but its slide is a reminder that markets remain unforgiving toward transformation stories that don’t translate into clear revenue and profit growth.
6. Crypto and Commodities: Macro‑Sensitive Trades on Alert
The Fed’s decision is also reverberating through crypto and commodity markets:
- Bitcoin is trading around $92,000, stuck below key resistance near $94,000 as traders brace for Powell’s comments. Analysts argue that while a 25‑basis‑point cut is widely priced in, a hawkish tone could trigger a deeper pullback toward the mid‑$80,000 area. [27]
- Silver’s surge above $60 and gold’s lofty levels above $4,200 continue to attract momentum and macro funds, especially given the backdrop of delayed inflation data and uncertainty about the 2026 policy path. [28]
For equity traders, these moves underscore just how macro‑driven today’s session is likely to be.
7. Key Themes Shaping Today’s Trade
Going into the open, several cross‑currents are likely to drive intraday price action:
- Rate cut vs. forward guidance
- The cut itself is almost fully discounted; the tone of the statement, the dot plot, and Powell’s Q&A will determine whether yields and growth‑stock valuations move higher or lower into year‑end. [29]
- Wages and the ECI print
- A hotter‑than‑expected ECI could validate concerns that labour‑cost inflation remains sticky, supporting hawkish dots and potentially curbing the market’s enthusiasm for 2026 cuts. A softer print would ease those worries.
- Data backlog and “policy under uncertainty”
- With CPI and payrolls delayed to mid‑December, the Fed is effectively setting policy on partial information, which may encourage Powell to stress caution and optionality rather than firm commitments.
- AI and mega‑cap positioning
- Oracle, Adobe, Synopsys tonight and Broadcom later this week will help decide whether the 2025 AI boom still has legs—or whether lofty expectations need trimming. Options markets are already signalling big potential post‑earnings swings. [30]
- Risk appetite vs. froth
- Stories like Carvana’s S&P 500 inclusion and GameStop’s latest stumble highlight how quickly sentiment can swing between speculative exuberance and fundamental skepticism in certain pockets of the market. [31]
- Precious metals and crypto as policy barometers
- The combination of record silver prices, elevated gold, and a range‑bound but volatile Bitcoin market shows investors hedging both inflation risk and the possibility of policy missteps.
8. How Different Investors Might Approach Today
This is general information, not financial advice.
- Day traders and short‑term players
- Expect a relatively quiet tape into the 8:30 a.m. ET ECI release, followed by a burst of activity in index futures, bank stocks, and rate‑sensitive sectors.
- The 2:00–3:00 p.m. ET window—statement plus Powell—will likely be the main volatility event, especially for AI, software, banks and high‑beta names.
- Swing traders
- Today’s combination of Fed, wage data and earnings could reset support/resistance ranges heading into the last two weeks of December, when seasonality typically becomes more favourable—as long as the Fed doesn’t squash the “Santa rally” narrative. [32]
- Long‑term investors
- The bigger story is whether rates are now firmly in a downtrend while staying well above pre‑pandemic levels, and how that intersects with themes like AI investment, housing affordability, and corporate spending on labour and technology.
- For many, the right takeaway from today may be less about intraday moves and more about the Fed’s 2026 roadmap and how it shapes earnings expectations across sectors.
As the opening bell approaches, markets appear calm on the surface, but the combination of Fed policy, wage data and AI‑heavy earnings sets the stage for a potentially volatile, narrative‑shifting session.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security.
References
1. www.reuters.com, 2. www.reuters.com, 3. www.reuters.com, 4. www.reuters.com, 5. www.investing.com, 6. www.cbsnews.com, 7. www.reuters.com, 8. www.kiplinger.com, 9. www.reuters.com, 10. www.cbsnews.com, 11. www.bls.gov, 12. www.reuters.com, 13. www.bls.gov, 14. www.cbsnews.com, 15. accesswdun.com, 16. accesswdun.com, 17. www.reuters.com, 18. www.reuters.com, 19. www.investing.com, 20. press.spglobal.com, 21. www.reuters.com, 22. www.reuters.com, 23. www.reuters.com, 24. www.reuters.com, 25. www.investing.com, 26. www.reuters.com, 27. www.tipranks.com, 28. www.reuters.com, 29. www.investing.com, 30. www.reuters.com, 31. press.spglobal.com, 32. www.reuters.com
