US Stock Market Week Ahead: Fed’s “Hawkish Cut,” Delayed Jobs & CPI, and Triple Witching Set Up a Volatile Mid-December

Wall Street heads into the week of Dec. 15–19, 2025 with a rare mix of cross-currents: a freshly delivered Federal Reserve rate cut, a market-wide rotation away from mega-cap AI winners, and—most importantly—a compressed “data dump” of delayed U.S. economic releases after a 43-day federal government shutdown disrupted reporting schedules. ^[1]

The setup is straightforward but high-stakes: if the delayed numbers confirm a cooling economy without an inflation re-acceleration, equities could extend the year-end bid. If the prints revive inflation worries—or show sharper labor-market damage—markets may quickly reprice 2026 rate expectations and risk appetite. ^[2]

What just happened: a rate cut, record highs… then an AI-led stumble

The week of Dec. 8–12 was a snapshot of late-2025 market psychology. Investors spent the first half waiting on the Fed, pushed the Dow and broader cyclicals higher on the decision, and then ended the week questioning whether the AI boom is hitting an “expectations vs. returns” wall.

By Friday’s close, the major indexes pulled back from record territory: the S&P 500 fell 1.1% to 6,827.41 and the Nasdaq dropped 1.7% to 23,195.17, while the Dow slid 0.5% to 48,458.05. ^[3]

For the week, performance divergence told the story of rotation: S&P 500 -0.6%, Nasdaq -1.6%, Dow +1.0%, Russell 2000 +1.2%. Year-to-date gains remain robust across the board—Nasdaq +20.1%, S&P 500 +16.1%, Dow +13.9%, Russell 2000 +14.4%—but leadership has become less concentrated as investors reassess duration-heavy growth and chase broader participation. ^[4]

That reassessment intensified after two high-profile AI-linked disappointments—Oracle and Broadcom—helped trigger a sharp tech selloff and fresh “AI bubble” chatter. ^[5]

The Fed’s message: a cut now, caution next

The decision

The Federal Reserve lowered the target range for the federal funds rate by 0.25 percentage point to 3.50%–3.75% at its Dec. 9–10 meeting. ^[6]

The tone

The critical nuance wasn’t the cut—it was the framing. In the Fed’s own words, officials see a difficult near-term balance: inflation risks tilted to the upside and employment risks tilted to the downside. ^[7]

Chair Jerome Powell also emphasized that tariff-driven inflation effects are expected to be “relatively short-lived”—but the Fed’s job is to prevent a one-time price-level shift from becoming persistent inflation. ^[8]

The internal split

The vote exposed an unusually wide spread of views. Reuters reported dissenters objecting on the grounds that inflation remained too hot and—crucially—that the shutdown left policymakers without timely data. ^[9]

That split matters for markets because it raises the bar for additional cuts: investors are no longer trading “Fed easing” as a steady glide path, but as a meeting-by-meeting decision dependent on a handful of delayed macro releases landing in a tight window. ^[10]

A quietly important liquidity detail

Alongside policy guidance, Powell discussed steps aimed at maintaining ample reserves, including initiating purchases of shorter-term Treasury securities for reserve management. For equity investors, this lands as a subtle liquidity support at the margin—though it’s not the same thing as a broad-based QE regime. ^[11]

The biggest catalyst next week: delayed U.S. data finally hits the tape

Because the shutdown disrupted collection and publication, next week’s calendar isn’t “business as usual.” It’s a backlog release that could reshape the narrative on jobs, inflation, and the consumer—right as liquidity thins into the holidays. ^[12]

Here are the key U.S. releases and rescheduled reports investors are watching:

Tuesday, Dec. 16: Jobs + Retail Sales collide

1) Employment Situation (November 2025) — 8:30 a.m. ET
BLS lists the November Employment Situation as rescheduled to Dec. 16. ^[13]

A major complication: BLS says it will not publish an October Employment Situation; some establishment survey components for October will be published with November data, but October household survey data were not collected and won’t be retroactively collected. That means markets may be forced to interpret labor momentum with an unusual data gap and potentially noisier signals. ^[14]

2) U.S. Retail Sales / Monthly Retail Trade (delayed) — Dec. 16
The Census Bureau’s retail schedule shows that delayed releases for advance monthly retail and food services sales (October 2025) and monthly retail trade (September 2025) were rescheduled to Dec. 16. ^[15]

Why it matters: if retail spending holds up, equities may treat the economy as “slower but stable.” If consumer demand looks fragile, the market will start to test how much of 2025’s rally was built on policy easing expectations rather than earnings resilience. Reuters flagged retail sales as one of the key reports investors will look to for economic momentum. ^[16]

Thursday, Dec. 18: The CPI print everyone has waited for

Consumer Price Index (November 2025) — 8:30 a.m. ET
BLS confirms the November CPI is scheduled for Dec. 18. ^[17]

But investors should expect “quirks”: BLS could not collect October CPI survey data and says it will not publish an all-items or core (ex-food & energy) estimate for October 2025. It also warns that the November CPI release and database update will not include 1‑month percent changes for November where October data are missing. In plain English: markets may get an inflation headline, but some usual month-to-month comparables could be absent or limited, making interpretation trickier. ^[18]

Friday, Dec. 19: Housing + derivatives expiration

Existing-Home Sales (November 2025) — 10:00 a.m. ET
The National Association of Realtors lists Nov. 2025 existing-home sales for release on Dec. 19 at 10:00 a.m. ET. ^[19]

Triple/quadruple witching — Dec. 19
The third Friday of December is a major derivatives expiration window that often boosts volume and can amplify price swings into the close—especially when macro catalysts hit the same week. Investopedia’s 2025 dates place the December expiration on Dec. 19, 2025. ^[20]

The market’s other obsession: is the AI trade losing its immunity?

If the macro calendar is the week’s engine, the AI “capex vs. payoff” debate is the accelerant.

Oracle: big spending, bigger questions

Oracle’s results and guidance reignited investor concern that the AI infrastructure buildout is consuming cash faster than it’s translating into durable profits. Reuters reported the stock slump was driven by gloomy forecasts and soaring spending that fanned AI bubble worries. ^[21]

The anxiety escalated further when a Bloomberg-reported data-center delay story hit the tape—Oracle denied the report, but the episode underscored how sensitive the market has become to the logistics and economics of AI buildouts (power, labor, materials, timelines). ^[22]

Broadcom: strong AI growth, margin pressure

Broadcom’s shares dropped sharply after the company warned that rising sales of lower-margin custom AI processorswould squeeze profitability—fueling fears that “AI revenue growth” may not automatically translate into “AI earnings growth.” ^[23]

The consequence: even as the broader market held up, tech leadership cracked. Reuters described a rotation away from high-growth AI names and into value-leaning sectors such as healthcare, even on days when the Dow proved resilient. ^[24]

Why this matters for next week

With the S&P 500 trading at about 22 times expected earnings—well above its 10-year average cited by Reuters—leadership fragility in megacap tech can have outsized index impact even if the “average stock” is holding up. ^[25]

That’s why next week’s data releases may not move the market in a uniform way:

Soft-landing data could benefit cyclicals, small caps, and rate-sensitive groups.
Hot inflation could pressure long-duration growth again, particularly the most expensive AI-linked names.
Growth scare data could hit economically sensitive sectors first, even if rate-cut bets increase.

Flows and positioning: investors are still buying—but rotating

Fund flows suggest risk appetite hasn’t vanished—it has shifted.

Reuters reported U.S. equity funds saw their first weekly inflow in three weeks (about $3.3 billion) heading into the Fed decision, while sector funds drew the strongest inflow since late October, led by areas such as metals & mining, industrials, and healthcare. ^[26]

That aligns with what price action signaled during the week: record highs in the Dow and Russell 2000 at points, and resilience in non-tech sectors even as AI-linked bellwethers stumbled. ^[27]

Week-ahead scenarios: what could move stocks most

Scenario 1: “Goldilocks backlog” (supports a year-end grind higher)

If Tuesday’s jobs data shows steady hiring and Thursday’s CPI doesn’t re-ignite inflation fear—while retail sales imply the consumer is slowing but not breaking—markets may stick with a broadening rally narrative. That would fit the Fed’s desire to stabilize the labor market while still aiming for disinflation. ^[28]

Who tends to benefit: cyclicals, small caps, financials, and other parts of the market that gain when recession odds fade and rate volatility calms.

Scenario 2: Inflation surprise (revives “higher-for-longer” angst)

If CPI comes in hotter than expected—or the details reinforce persistence—rate-cut expectations for 2026 could be pushed out again, especially given the Fed’s stated upside inflation risks and visible internal dissent. ^[29]

What to watch: Treasury yields and whether the “AI profitability” narrative worsens (higher yields usually pressure long-duration growth).

Scenario 3: Labor-market air pocket (risk-off, even if cuts look likely later)

Weekly claims already showed volatility—jobless claims posted their largest increase in nearly 4½ years (though economists cautioned about seasonal noise). ^[30]

If the Employment Situation signals sharper weakness, equities could sell first and ask questions later, particularly with thin year-end liquidity—exactly the condition Reuters warned could amplify volatility. ^[31]

Bottom line: three things to watch as the US stock market heads into Dec. 15–19

Dec. 16 becomes a “super Tuesday”: delayed jobs data and delayed retail sales land the same morning, creating a fast repricing risk across stocks, yields, and the dollar. ^[32]
Dec. 18 CPI may be messier than usual because October inflation data gaps can limit standard month-to-month comparisons—yet the headline will still drive trading. ^[33]
Dec. 19 derivatives expiration can amplify moves, especially if markets enter Friday with unresolved interpretations of jobs and inflation—and with tech leadership already wobbling after Oracle and Broadcom. ^[34]