USA Rare Earth, Inc. (NASDAQ: USAR) has roared back with a double‑digit jump after announcing new rare‑earth supply agreements and progress on its “mine‑to‑magnet” strategy. Here’s a deep dive into the latest news, forecasts and competing analyses investors are watching right now.
USA Rare Earth (USAR) stock price today: volatile rebound
As of December 5, 2025, USA Rare Earth, Inc. trades around $17.5 per share, up roughly 25% in the latest session, giving the company a market capitalization of about $2.3 billion. [1]
Key trading stats from recent data providers: [2]
- Exchange / ticker: NASDAQ: USAR
- Market cap: ≈ $2.3 billion
- 52‑week range: $5.56 – $43.98
- Latest daily move: +24–25% on heavy volume
- TTM EPS: about –$3.88; no trailing revenue reported yet
The chart (which we’re describing, not showing) tells a wild story: after surging above $40 earlier in the year, USAR plunged nearly 50% over an 11‑session losing streak in early November, erasing roughly $1.4 billion in market value before rebounding into late November and early December. [3]
In short: USAR is trading like what it is — a high‑beta, pre‑revenue story stock that lives on news flow.
What USA Rare Earth actually does
USA Rare Earth is trying to become a vertically integrated “mine‑to‑magnet” player in rare earths — a sector that sits right at the intersection of clean energy, defense, and geopolitics.
According to company filings and its own investor materials: [4]
- Business model: mining, processing and supplying rare earths and other critical minerals, plus manufacturing sintered neodymium‑iron‑boron (NdFeB) permanent magnets.
- Key assets & sites:
- Round Top deposit in Hudspeth County, West Texas – a large, low‑grade deposit hosting 15 of the 17 rare earth elements plus gallium, hafnium, zirconium, beryllium and lithium.
- Stillwater, Oklahoma magnet plant – a 310,000+ square‑foot facility targeting nearly 5,000 metric tons of magnet capacity annually at full ramp, aimed at sectors like EVs, wind power, defense, robotics and industrial equipment.
- Wheat Ridge, Colorado R&D facility – developing proprietary processing (including Continuous Ion Exchange) for rare earth separation.
- Vertical integration goal: mine ore at Round Top → process and separate rare earths in Colorado → make metals and alloys (including via Less Common Metals) → produce finished magnets in Oklahoma.
The company says it successfully produced its first batch of sintered rare earth magnets at an “Innovations Lab” in Stillwater in early 2025, with commercial magnet production from the main plant planned for the first half of 2026. [5]
Latest news moving USAR stock (late November – December 5, 2025)
1. New supply deal with Arnold Magnetic & Compass Diversified (Dec 4)
The main catalyst behind the latest spike: on December 4, 2025, USA Rare Earth announced that its newly acquired subsidiary Less Common Metals (LCM) signed a supply agreement with Solvay and Arnold Magnetic Technologies, a unit of Compass Diversified (NYSE: CODI). [6]
- LCM will supply high‑quality rare‑earth materials to Arnold for advanced permanent magnet production.
- The deal is explicitly pitched as an “ex‑China” source of rare‑earth inputs for Western supply chains.
- The announcement triggered a ~20% intraday surge in USAR stock, highlighted in coverage by Motley Fool / Nasdaq and others. [7]
The company didn’t disclose pricing, volumes or margin details, which is a key caveat for valuation‑minded investors.
2. LCM–Solvay–Permag strategic partnership (Nov 20)
Two weeks earlier, USA Rare Earth said LCM had entered a strategic partnership with Solvay to supply rare earth metals to Permag, a European high‑precision magnet and assemblies maker. [8]
- The agreement focuses on samarium materials for samarium‑based magnets, a niche but strategically important segment used in advanced defense and industrial applications.
- USAR reiterated that its Stillwater magnet plant is on track for commissioning in Q1 2026, with LCM providing alloy feedstock for that facility. [9]
Taken together, the Arnold and Permag deals are meant to show that LCM is a real business with established customers — and that USAR can plug into existing magnet supply chains rather than building everything from scratch.
3. Closing of Less Common Metals acquisition & U.K. approval
USA Rare Earth closed its acquisition of LCM on November 18, 2025, after receiving regulatory approval from the U.K. government on November 12. [10]
LCM produces specialty rare‑earth metals and cast / strip‑cast alloys used in magnets and high‑performance components for sectors including defense, automotive, semiconductors and aerospace. USAR pitches this acquisition as a big step toward a fully integrated mine‑metal‑magnet chain, with LCM supplying feedstock to the Stillwater plant once it’s running. [11]
4. Preliminary inclusion in the Russell 2000 Index
On November 26, 2025, USA Rare Earth announced it had been included in the preliminary list of IPO additions to the Russell 2000® small‑cap index, with inclusion expected to become effective on December 22, 2025, pending the usual review process. [12]
Membership in the Russell 2000 also brings automatic inclusion in the Russell 3000® and related style indices. That matters because index funds and quant strategies benchmarked to Russell products can become forced buyers, potentially supporting liquidity and valuation — though in practice the effect can be modest and short‑lived.
5. Q3 2025 results: heavy losses, lots of cash
USA Rare Earth reported Q3 2025 results on November 6. Highlights: [13]
- No meaningful revenue yet; the business remains pre‑commercial.
- Loss from operations: about $15.9 million in Q3 (vs. $2.0m a year earlier).
- GAAP net loss: roughly $156.7 million in Q3, driven largely by non‑cash changes in warrant and earn‑out liabilities tied to the SPAC structure.
- Adjusted net loss: about $25.6 million, or –$0.25 per share, missing consensus estimates of roughly –$0.06 to –$0.10.
- Cash and equivalents: ~$258 million at quarter‑end, boosted by a $125 million equity raise. Subsequent warrant exercises pushed cash above $400 million after quarter‑end.
- The company explicitly disclosed “substantial doubt” about its ability to continue as a going concern over the next 12 months in its forward‑looking risk factors — a standard but serious flag for a company still relying on external capital.
The earnings miss triggered a sharp sell‑off; Benzinga reported a ~9–10% drop on the day, and MarketBeat tracked days of heavy‑volume volatility around the print. [14]
6. SPAC listing and White House interest (earlier in 2025)
USAR came public via a SPAC merger with Inflection Point Acquisition Corp. II, completing its business combination in March 2025 after earlier announcements in 2024 that valued the company at a pro‑forma enterprise value of about $870 million. [15]
Coverage during and after the merger highlighted:
- A “transformative” deal turning USA Rare Earth into a publicly traded U.S. critical‑minerals play. [16]
- Reports of discussions with the White House and U.S. government agencies about potential financing and policy support, reflecting the national‑security angle of domestic rare‑earth supply. [17]
How Wall Street and models currently value USAR
Analyst ratings and price targets
Different data providers are showing slightly different snapshots, but they agree on two points: USAR is risky, and analyst coverage is still thin.
From MarketBeat’s aggregation of broker research (as of late November): [18]
- Rating: “Moderate Buy”
- Coverage: 4 Buy ratings, 1 Sell
- Consensus 12‑month target: about $26.33, implying substantial upside from the mid‑teens.
- Individual targets mentioned:
- Roth Capital: $40
- Canaccord Genuity: $23 (raised from $22)
- Cantor Fitzgerald: $16 with “overweight” rating
- Some independent services (e.g., Weiss, Wall Street Zen) list Sell or “D‑grade” ratings even while acknowledging the strategic story.
StockAnalysis, which appears to track a smaller subset of analysts, shows: [19]
- Consensus rating: “Strong Buy”
- Average target price:$18, only modestly above the current quote.
The discrepancy mostly reflects which analysts are counted and how often their targets are updated. The broader theme: professional coverage is still evolving and far from unanimous.
DCF fair value: big upside, big assumptions
A discounted cash‑flow (DCF) analysis from Simply Wall St, syndicated via Sahm Capital on November 29, estimated a fair value of $41.01 per share. At that time, USAR traded around $12.43, implying the stock was roughly 70% undervalued under their model. [20]
Key points from that analysis:
- The model assumes rapid future revenue growth and substantial profitability once mining and magnet operations scale.
- It explicitly notes that USAR is unprofitable and has reported no revenue to date, which makes any valuation highly sensitive to long‑term assumptions.
- The authors emphasize that the DCF is a framework, not a guarantee, and that the stock’s sharp volatility reflects both opportunity and uncertainty. [21]
Technical momentum: RS rating up, fundamentals lagging
Investor’s Business Daily’s RS (Relative Strength) system — which scores stocks by their 52‑week price performance relative to the broad market — recently highlighted USA Rare Earth twice: [22]
- In late November, USAR’s RS Rating jumped from 61 to 83, pushing it into the “market leaders” zone.
- Shortly after, the RS Rating was raised again to 91, putting it among the top 10% of performers.
- However, IBD also noted that USAR isn’t yet in a technically ideal buy zone and has no EPS or sales growth history, which usually matters a lot in its methodology.
So on paper, USAR looks like a momentum‑driven small cap with little in the way of visible fundamentals — a profile that can turn very fast in either direction.
The bullish case: a strategic U.S. rare‑earth champion
Supporters of USA Rare Earth focus on a few major themes.
1. National‑security and policy tailwinds
USAR’s stated mission — building a domestic rare‑earth magnet supply chain — lines up neatly with U.S. and European efforts to reduce dependence on China, which still controls over 90% of global sintered NdFeB magnet production. [23]
Reports from outlets like Barron’s have highlighted intensifying tensions over rare‑earth supply, including Chinese moves that could make it harder for Western defense contractors to access materials. [24] This elevates the strategic value of players like MP Materials and USA Rare Earth, which U.S. policymakers don’t exactly want to see fail. [25]
2. A credible path to magnet revenues
While Round Top remains a long‑dated mining project, USAR is now leaning heavily into the magnet manufacturing and alloys side:
- Stillwater magnet plant targeting up to 5,000 tons per year of NdFeB magnets at full capacity, with initial commissioning planned for early 2026. [26]
- Demonstrated magnet production at the Innovations Lab and signed MOUs / JDAs with potential customers such as Enduro Pipeline Services and ePropelled for magnet supply starting in 2026. [27]
- Acquisition of Less Common Metals, which already produces critical alloys and metals and sells into defense, EV and aerospace supply chains, plus fresh supply deals with Arnold and Permag. [28]
If the Stillwater plant ramps anywhere close to plan and LCM continues to win business, USAR could transition from zero revenue to hundreds of millions of dollars in annual sales over a few years — at least on bullish projections.
3. Institutional and index support
MarketBeat data shows that several well‑known funds have accumulated stakes: [29]
- Alyeska Investment Group increased its position by about 44% to ~12.8 million shares (~$219 million at the time).
- Vanguard, Geode and others also expanded holdings during 2025.
Preliminary inclusion in the Russell 2000 and 3000 indices adds a layer of passive demand and visibility, which can help liquidity and reduce some of the “orphaned small‑cap” risk. [30]
4. Upside if Round Top works
If — and it’s a big “if” — the Round Top deposit proves economically viable and feedstock actually flows into Stillwater, USAR would own a domestic source of heavy rare earths plus other high‑value metals. [31]
Combined with magnet manufacturing and recycling (e.g., swarf recycling work highlighted in Q3), that would give USA Rare Earth a credible claim to being one of the most vertically integrated rare‑earth players outside China. [32]
The bear case: execution risk, aggressive assumptions and short‑seller scrutiny
The bullish story is compelling — but it’s exactly the type of narrative that attracts skeptics.
1. Pre‑revenue, big losses, going‑concern language
The Q3 2025 financials make clear that USA Rare Earth is still burning cash with no operating revenue: [33]
- Operating expenses up sharply as the company builds facilities, buys equipment and grows its team.
- Large GAAP losses driven by SPAC‑related warrant and earn‑out liabilities.
- Even with more than $400 million in pro‑forma cash after warrants, the company’s own filings warn of substantial doubt about its ability to continue as a going concern over the next 12 months without continued financing. [34]
That doesn’t mean USAR is doomed — many early‑stage industrial companies carry going‑concern language — but it does underline that equity investors are effectively funding a long, capital‑intensive experiment.
2. Night Market Research short report: “75% downside”
In August 2025, short‑selling outfit Night Market Research published a detailed report arguing USA Rare Earth’s “mine‑to‑magnet” story is a “pipe dream” with up to 75% downside for the stock. [35]
Key allegations (summarized, not endorsed):
- Round Top economics rely on highly optimistic assumptions about production volumes and long‑term pricing for minor byproducts like beryllium, hafnium and lithium, in some cases implying output equal to a large fraction of current global production.
- The Colorado pilot processing facility was heavily hyped in 2019–2020 but then went quiet for years, with limited evidence of successful scale‑up.
- The Hitachi magnet equipment the company bought allegedly lacked crucial proprietary control software, making it effectively “scrap” without significant additional investment and engineering.
- The report questions whether USAR has the intellectual property rights and know‑how to produce sintered NdFeB magnets at scale, citing DOE reports on the dense web of patents and licensing historically controlled by Hitachi and others.
USAR has continued to push ahead with its plans and has pointed to successful magnet production in Stillwater and the LCM acquisition as responses in kind, but as of this writing the company hasn’t addressed every specific claim in that report in public detail. [36]
3. Skeptical fundamental research
Beyond short sellers, at least one Seeking Alpha article in mid‑October maintained a “Sell” stance even after the LCM deal, arguing that: [37]
- USAR’s then‑roughly $4 billion market value was already discounting very optimistic outcomes.
- Magnet and mining projects are notorious for delays, cost overruns and technical surprises.
Other commentary (including Forbes and multiple Motley Fool pieces) has highlighted the stock’s extreme volatility, the absence of revenue, and the risk that any setback in commissioning or government support could hit the share price hard. [38]
USAR stock forecast: what to watch into 2026
Rather than a single price target, it’s more realistic to think in scenarios.
Bullish scenario (what the optimists are betting on)
This lines up most closely with the DCF and high analyst targets: [39]
- Stillwater magnet plant starts up roughly on time in 2026 and ramps toward multi‑thousand‑ton capacity over several years.
- LCM continues to win supply deals (like Arnold and Permag), and these agreements scale in volume and pricing.
- The company secures additional government grants, loans or offtake agreements, lowering its cost of capital.
- Round Top advances through pre‑feasibility by 2026 with encouraging economics, and investors begin to value USAR as a long‑term producer of heavy rare earths and other critical minerals.
- In this world, revenue could ramp sharply from near‑zero to the mid‑hundreds of millions of dollars annually later in the decade, and the share price could justify — or even exceed — the high‑20s or low‑40s target range floated by some models and analysts.
Base‑case scenario (what a cautious bull might assume)
A middle‑of‑the‑road view might look like this: [40]
- Magnet production begins, but ramp‑up is slower and lumpier than hoped.
- LCM deals generate meaningful but not transformative revenue early on.
- Round Top progresses but remains a question mark until more engineering and market data come in.
- The company needs more capital raises, potentially diluting shareholders, but manages to survive and gradually derisk its operations.
In that scenario, the stock could still be attractive for investors with high risk tolerance and long time horizons, but upside would likely be more modest than the most optimistic models suggest, and volatility would remain extreme.
Bearish scenario (what skeptics fear)
This is essentially the Night Market / short‑seller view: [41]
- Technical or IP issues, cost overruns or regulatory delays slow or derail magnet production at Stillwater.
- LCM turns out to be less profitable or strategically valuable than bulls hope, or integration proves difficult.
- Round Top economics fail to pencil out under realistic price and cost assumptions.
- Capital markets turn less friendly; warrant exercises and equity raises dry up; going‑concern risk escalates.
In that world, USAR could drift toward much lower share prices or be forced into strategic alternatives at valuations far below today’s levels.
Key risks to keep in mind
Regardless of scenario, several risks stand out from company filings and third‑party research: [42]
- Execution risk: standing up a large‑scale magnet plant and complex rare‑earth processing flowsheet is technically difficult.
- Financing risk: USAR is pre‑revenue and explicitly acknowledges going‑concern uncertainty; it is heavily reliant on equity and warrant funding.
- Commodity & policy risk: rare‑earth prices and Western government priorities can shift with trade politics and technology cycles.
- Regulatory & environmental approvals: particularly at Round Top, where long‑term permitting and community relations will matter.
- Short‑seller & media overhang: negative reports can amplify volatility, especially around earnings or project updates.
Bottom line
USA Rare Earth is not a typical industrial stock. It’s a speculative, news‑driven bet on the West’s attempt to rebuild a domestic rare‑earth magnet supply chain, backed by a volatile share price, a growing pile of cash, and a business that is still in the pre‑revenue, heavy‑investment phase.
Recent supply agreements, the LCM acquisition, and looming Russell 2000 inclusion have put USAR back on traders’ radar, while conflicting analyst targets and a sharp DCF‑implied upside battle with equally sharp short‑seller warnings and going‑concern language in the company’s own filings. [43]
For anyone following USA Rare Earth, the next 12–24 months will hinge on whether magnet production starts on time, whether LCM‑driven revenues begin to show up in the income statement, and whether Round Top advances from story to credible project.
References
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