Vedanta Limited Share Price Today: De‑merger, Incab Deal and Analyst Targets Shape VEDL’s 2026 Outlook

Vedanta Limited (NSE: VEDL, BSE: 500295) is trading near record highs as of 5 December 2025, buoyed by progress on its long‑planned de‑merger, a fresh acquisition in power cables, and a string of upbeat brokerage notes. At the same time, investors are weighing high leverage, volatile commodity prices and regulatory timelines before deciding how much more upside is left.

Below is a deep dive into how the Vedanta share price is positioned today, what’s driving sentiment, and what analysts expect heading into 2026.

Vedanta share price today (5 December 2025)

By late morning on 5 December 2025, Vedanta Limited’s share price was hovering around ₹525–526 on the NSE, down roughly 0.8–1% versus the previous close. Intraday, the stock has traded in a range of about ₹517.8–₹529. ^[1]

Key trading and valuation metrics as of around 11:00 am IST:

Spot price: ~₹525.5
Previous close: ₹529.65
52‑week range: roughly ₹363–₹541
Market capitalisation: about ₹2.0–2.1 lakh crore
Trailing P/E: around 17x, versus an industry P/E in the 15–15.5x zone
Dividend yield (trailing): high‑single digits, roughly 8–9% depending on source and timeframe. ^[2]

Price performance has been strong on longer time frames. Over the past 3 months, the stock is up close to 19%, about 12% over one year and nearly 66% over three years, with 5‑year returns above 300% on a total‑return basis. ^[3]

On 4 December 2025, Vedanta briefly hit a fresh 52‑week high around ₹540–542, capping a 10% rally over the last eight trading sessions and about 24% gains in six months, materially outperforming both the Sensex and the BSE Metal index. ^[4]

What’s driving the Vedanta rally?

1. De‑merger hopes inching toward the finish line

Vedanta’s single biggest structural story remains its planned $20 billion de‑merger into five separately listed, sector‑focused companies:

Vedanta Aluminium
Vedanta Oil & Gas
Vedanta Power
Vedanta Iron & Steel
Vedanta Limited (which will retain some existing and upcoming businesses that don’t fit neatly into the four verticals). ^[5]

The scheme has previously received backing from multiple proxy advisory firms, which see the split as a way to unlock value and allow investors to choose specific exposure (for example, pure‑play aluminium versus power). ^[6]

According to recent analysis, most key shareholder and board approvals are in place, but the transaction is still awaiting final NCLT clearance and certain government approvals, with the timeline now pushed out to March 2026 from earlier targets. ^[7]

For Vedanta’s more than 20 lakh retail shareholders, commentary around the de‑merger suggests several intended benefits:

Simpler, “cleaner” listed entities with independent capital structures
Management teams focused on a single vertical
Easier benchmarking against global peers (e.g., aluminium or zinc pure‑plays)
Clearer visibility on segment‑wise cash flows and leverage. ^[8]

Markets are treating this de‑merger as a major medium‑term re‑rating trigger. Any fresh clarity on timelines or swap ratios tends to move the stock.

2. Rating outlook upgrade for parent Vedanta Resources

The recent rally also coincided with S&P Global revising its outlook on Vedanta’s parent, Vedanta Resources, from “stable” to “positive” while reaffirming its B+ rating. The agency cited:

Stronger earnings visibility
Ongoing cost reductions
Supportive metal prices, expected to boost cash flows
Lower interest expenses at the holding company level, aiding deleveraging. ^[9]

For equity holders in Vedanta Limited, an improved outlook at the parent level is significant. The group’s complex capital structure and high holding‑company debt have long been key investor concerns. A more benign credit view doesn’t remove that risk, but it suggests lower refinancing stress if cash generation remains robust.

3. Tailwinds from “critical minerals”

Another supportive narrative is Vedanta’s positioning in critical minerals. The US has added copper and silver to its critical minerals list, while India has identified 30 critical minerals essential for energy transition and economic development. ^[10]

Vedanta has disclosed that it has secured 10 mineral blocks in India across nickel, cobalt, copper, graphite and potash. This enhances its long‑term optionality in energy transition metals beyond the familiar aluminium and zinc businesses. ^[11]

If global decarbonisation policies and infrastructure spending stay on track, diversified exposure to these minerals could help underpin earnings over the next decade – though it also brings capex and execution risk.

4. ESG visibility via biomass and stubble‑burning reduction

On 5 December, Vedanta also appeared on “stocks to watch” lists thanks to an ESG‑coloured story: the group’s energy arm Talwandi Sabo Power Ltd (TSPL) reported that its biomass manufacturing facility in Mansa, Punjab has helped reduce stubble‑burning incidents in the region by using crop residue as fuel. ^[12]

While this does not move the numbers by itself, such initiatives are increasingly relevant for global investors who scrutinise sustainability and social impact in metals and mining names.

Incab Industries acquisition: pushing downstream in copper and aluminium

One of the most concrete catalysts this week was NCLT Kolkata approving Vedanta’s resolution plan to acquire Incab Industries Limited, a distressed manufacturer of power cables and industrial wires that use copper and aluminium as key raw materials. ^[13]

Key deal terms and strategic angles:

Vedanta will acquire 100% shareholding in Incab for an upfront ₹545 crore, funded entirely through internal accruals. ^[14]
Incab has two manufacturing plants, in Jamshedpur and Pune, both currently non‑operational. Vedanta plans to revive them via fresh capex and working capital infusion. ^[15]
The Pune facility sits roughly 300 km from Vedanta’s Silvassa copper unit, offering logistical synergy. ^[16]

The market liked the announcement: Vedanta shares climbed around 2% and hit a new 52‑week high on 4 December after the approval, before consolidating near current levels. ^[17]

Strategically, the deal nudges Vedanta downstream:

From being primarily an upstream metals producer to also manufacturing value‑added products like power cables and industrial conductors
Enhancing exposure to infrastructure and transmission demand, which is linked to India’s capex cycle

Execution risk is non‑trivial—reviving shutdown plants profitably is not guaranteed—but if done well, the acquisition could smooth earnings through a wider product mix.

Fundamentals: Q2 FY26 earnings, cash flows and leverage

Revenue and earnings

For Q2 FY26, Vedanta reported:

Record second‑quarter consolidated revenue of around ₹39,000–40,000 crore, up roughly 6% year‑on‑year
EBITDA in the neighbourhood of ₹11,400–11,600 crore, with margins in the high‑20s to low‑30s percent depending on how one adjusts for custom smelting and one‑offs
Consolidated PAT (post minority interest) down sharply—around 58–59% year‑on‑year—largely due to exceptional items of about ₹2,000+ crore. ^[18]

Operationally, the company highlighted:

Record production of aluminium, alumina and zinc metal in some operations
Commissioning of about 1.3 GW of new power capacity
First metal from a new BALCO smelter and additional alumina capacity at its Lanjigarh refinery. ^[19]

Management has indicated it expects FY26 EBITDA to surpass the previous record (roughly $6 billion achieved in FY22), assuming supportive commodity prices and ramp‑up of new projects. ^[20]

Cash flows, debt and the “3Ds”

Brokerage analysis points to strong cash generation:

Since FY22, Vedanta has generated cash flow from operations above ₹30,000 crore per year, supporting both capex and deleveraging.
Net Debt/EBITDA has improved to about 1.37x as of September 2025, with a targeted reduction to 1x by FY27. ^[21]

Nuvama Institutional Equities summarises management’s strategy as the “3Ds”:

De‑merger – to unlock value and simplify the structure
Delivery – volume growth and operational efficiency
Deleveraging – reducing net debt over time. ^[22]

Dividend profile

Vedanta is known for its aggressive dividend payouts:

Some brokerage notes project a forward dividend yield around 6% based on expected distributions in FY26. ^[23]
Historical distributions have been even higher, which is why trailing‑twelve‑month yields show up in the 8–9% range on data platforms. ^[24]

For shareholders, this is a double‑edged sword:

High payouts are attractive, particularly when combined with moderate P/E multiples
But they also reflect the need to upstream cash to the parent group, and they leave less cushion if the commodity cycle turns or capex runs over budget.

Valuation: P/E, yield and growth expectations

On current numbers, Vedanta sits at an interesting point in the value–growth spectrum:

P/E ratio: around 17–17.3x on trailing earnings, below the broader Indian market (where many stocks trade above 26x) but modestly above the sector average of about 15x. ^[25]
Dividend yield: high‑single digits, which is significantly above the Nifty 50 average. ^[26]

Simply Wall St’s analysis notes that:

Earnings per share have fallen about 30% over three years, and year‑on‑year earnings were roughly flat recently, which partly explains the relatively muted P/E despite the dividend and growth stories
Yet, analyst consensus expects EPS growth of roughly 24% per year over the next three years, compared with about 20% per year for the broader market, implying higher‑than‑market growth is already forecast but not fully rewarded in the valuation multiple. ^[27]

Put differently, the market seems to be discounting the forecasts for now—either due to commodity cycle skepticism, de‑merger uncertainty, or governance and capital‑allocation concerns.

What brokerages and analysts are saying

Consensus targets

According to Trendlyne, which aggregates broker reports on Vedanta:

The average 1‑year share price target is about ₹552.6
That implies roughly 5% upside from current levels around ₹525
The platform lists 10 reports from six analysts, skewed towards “Buy” recommendations with some “Neutral” stances. ^[28]

TradingView’s consolidated forecast shows a slightly higher consensus target near ₹568.7, with a target range from ₹480 to ₹686, again underlining how wide opinions are on the stock’s risk‑reward balance. ^[29]

The Economic Times page for Vedanta notes that 14 analysts currently cover the stock, with the overall stance leaning towards “Buy” rather than “Sell”. ^[30]

Selected brokerage views

Some of the more prominent brokerage calls in recent weeks include:

Nuvama Institutional Equities – Buy, target ₹686
- Sees Vedanta benefiting from higher non‑ferrous prices, healthy capacity expansion in aluminium, zinc and power, and strong balance‑sheet management
- Expects EBITDA CAGR of around 16% over FY25–28, driven by volume growth and lower aluminium cost of production
- Forecasts further dividends (around ₹20 per share by January 2026 in one recent note and ₹10–12 per share later in FY26 in another), and expects NCLT approval of the de‑merger by Q4 FY26, potentially unlocking more value. ^[31]
ICICI Securities / ICICI Direct – Buy, target ₹600
- Highlights Vedanta’s leadership in aluminium and zinc, strong cash flows (CFO >₹30,000 crore annually since FY22) and improving leverage
- Projects return ratios north of 20% and a sustainable forward dividend yield around the mid‑single digits to high‑single digits
- Sees FY26 EBITDA exceeding the previous record year, assuming the current commodity backdrop persists. ^[32]
Geojit BNP Paribas – Buy, target ₹568
- Emphasises robust Q2 FY26 performance, diversified earnings across metals and power, and a constructive view on Vedanta’s ESG positioning and de‑merger plan. ^[33]
Motilal Oswal – Neutral, target ₹540
- Acknowledges the strong recent results and de‑merger potential but recommends a more cautious stance after the sharp price run‑up, reflecting execution and cycle risks at higher valuations. ^[34]

Economic Times and TOI’s brokerage round‑ups also list Vedanta among 2025 long‑term picks, citing Nuvama’s target of ₹686 and an estimated 34% upside from levels around ₹509 when that call was highlighted. ^[35]

All of these remain third‑party opinions, and even the bullish reports carry explicit risk disclosures.

Key risks investors are watching

Despite the positive news flow, Vedanta is not a low‑risk story. The main issues investors continue to monitor include:

Commodity price volatility
Vedanta’s profitability is tightly linked to global prices of aluminium, zinc, silver and crude oil. A sustained downturn in any of these could compress margins quickly, regardless of operational improvements.
Leverage and parent‑level debt
While Vedanta Limited’s own leverage metrics are improving, Vedanta Resources still carries sub‑investment grade debt (B+ from S&P), and relies heavily on dividends and cash flows from the operating company. That structural dependence remains a key overhang, even with a more positive outlook. ^[36]
De‑merger execution and regulatory timelines
The de‑merger has already seen timeline extensions—from an earlier deadline to September 2025, now to March 2026. Any further delays, adverse regulatory conditions, or unexpected changes in scheme terms could hurt sentiment. ^[37]
Capex and acquisition integration risk
Big expansions in power, aluminium and steel, plus the Incab revival, demand large capital outlays. Mis‑execution or cost overruns could cap free cash flows and slow deleveraging.
Governance and capital allocation
Historically, some investors have been wary of the group’s capital allocation decisions and complex structure. De‑merger and deleveraging are attempts to address this, but market trust tends to rebuild slowly.

What to watch in 2026 for Vedanta shares

For investors tracking Vedanta Limited into 2026, some of the key milestones and data points likely to influence the share price include:

Final NCLT and government approvals for the de‑merger, plus clarity on:
- Effective date
- Share entitlements in each listed entity
- Listing timelines for Vedanta Aluminium, Oil & Gas, Power, and Iron & Steel
Progress on deleveraging targets – whether Net Debt/EBITDA moves toward 1x by FY27, as guided. ^[38]
Integration and ramp‑up of Incab Industries, including timelines for restarting the Jamshedpur and Pune plants and the margin profile of the downstream cable/wire business. ^[39]
Commodity price trends across aluminium, zinc, copper and oil, especially given their role in Vedanta’s earnings and capex decisions.
Dividend announcements in late FY26 and FY27 and how they balance between shareholder returns and debt reduction.
ESG developments, from biomass and stubble‑burning initiatives to broader sustainability reporting, which could influence foreign institutional investor appetite.

Bottom line

As of 5 December 2025, Vedanta Limited is trading close to its all‑time highs, supported by:

A credible—if delayed—de‑merger story
Positive signals from credit rating agencies
Strong cash generation, improving leverage, and a rich dividend yield
Fresh strategic moves like the Incab acquisition and new capacity additions

At the same time, the stock remains a high‑beta, cyclical play:

It is exposed to sharp swings in global metal and energy prices
It still carries group‑level debt risk and regulatory uncertainty
A lot of the upside case depends on successful execution of de‑merger, deleveraging and downstream expansion.

Given these trade‑offs, broker targets cluster in a fairly wide band—from about ₹480 on the low side to ₹686 on the high side—reflecting genuine disagreement on how much of the future good news is already in the price. ^[40]

References