Vedanta Ltd. is ending 2025 with momentum on multiple fronts: a fresh 52-week high in its share price, a tribunal-cleared demerger that could reshape the group into cleaner “pure-play” businesses, and a multi-year capex pipeline that ties directly into India’s infrastructure build-out and energy transition.
On December 26, Vedanta shares touched a 52-week high of ₹607.65 in intraday trade, extending a sustained rally and taking the stock’s 2025 gain to about 35% on the BSE. The rally has stretched across 13 consecutive sessions, during which the stock rose about 17%. Rediff
The timing matters: traders and long-term investors are increasingly linking Vedanta’s near-term price action to the NCLT’s approval of its restructuring plan, as well as to an improving backdrop for key non-ferrous commodities (including aluminium, zinc and—via group company Hindustan Zinc—silver). Rediff
Why Vedanta is rallying: the demerger is moving from “plan” to “execution”
Vedanta first announced the idea of a major corporate reorganisation in 2023. The key recent trigger was regulatory progress: the National Company Law Tribunal (NCLT), Mumbai sanctioned the group’s demerger scheme via an order dated December 16, 2025, pushing the proposal into an implementation phase—subject to further approvals and customary steps. NSE India
What the post-demerger structure looks like
In its exchange disclosure and press release following the NCLT order, Vedanta said the reorganisation is expected to result in five listed companies (including the already-listed parent). The resulting entities are described as:
- Vedanta Aluminium
- Vedanta Oil & Gas
- Vedanta Iron & Steel
- Vedanta Power (with an important caveat)
- Vedanta Limited (to continue as the parent holding Hindustan Zinc and “future-facing businesses”) NSE India
A significant nuance: Vedanta notes that approval for demerger of the “merchant power business” is pending before the NCLT under a separate proceeding. NSE India
That helps explain why headlines sometimes list group companies such as Talwandi Sabo Power and Malco Energy—the legal entities involved in the scheme—while investor-facing communication often frames the end-state as “Vedanta Power” and “Vedanta Oil & Gas.” Moneycontrol
What shareholders get
Vedanta has said shareholders of Vedanta Limited will receive equity shares in each of the four resulting listed entities, in proportion to their existing shareholding (in addition to retaining their shares in Vedanta Limited), enabling direct ownership across the demerged businesses. NSE India
Management’s pitch: simpler structure, sharper focus
In the company’s announcement, Vedanta chairman Anil Agarwal described the tribunal approval as a turning point. One line captures the intended message to markets: “This is a landmark moment in Vedanta’s journey.” NSE India
The argument is straightforward: by splitting into sector-specific companies—with independent boards, capital structures and investor narratives—Vedanta expects the market to value each business more transparently than it does inside a complex conglomerate. NSE India
The other major driver: ₹81,743 crore capex aligned with “energy transition” demand
If the demerger is the structural catalyst, Vedanta’s capex cycle is the operating catalyst investors are watching.
An Upstox analysis points to a multi-year capex program of ₹81,743 crore (roughly $10 billion), described as nearly 50% of Vedanta’s gross block—a scale large enough to materially change capacities and earnings power if executed on schedule. Upstox – Online Stock and Share Trading
Where Vedanta plans to invest
According to the same Upstox breakdown, as of June 30, 2025, Vedanta had spent ₹30,997 crore and still had ₹50,747 crore unspent in the program—underscoring why “execution” remains the dominant debate for 2026. Upstox – Online Stock and Share Trading
Key projects highlighted include:
- Aluminium: BALCO smelter and Lanjigarh refinery expansion; value-added products capacity targeted at 2.8 MTPA Upstox – Online Stock and Share Trading
- Zinc: India projects such as Debari Roaster and cell house debottlenecking; Gamsberg Phase II internationally Upstox – Online Stock and Share Trading
- Power:1,000 MW at Meenakshi Power and 1,200 MW at Athena Power Upstox – Online Stock and Share Trading
- Steel: hot metal expansion to 3.5 MTPA at ESL Steel and value-added product capacity doubling Upstox – Online Stock and Share Trading
Vedanta’s management guidance, cited in the same piece, targets EBITDA of $8–$10 billion over the next few years, with consolidated EBITDA implied to grow at an ~18% CAGR from FY25 to FY28, assuming project ramp-ups and commodity conditions cooperate. Upstox – Online Stock and Share Trading
Energy transition tailwinds: why aluminium, zinc and silver are in the spotlight
The phrase “energy transition” can feel abstract until you map it onto commodities. In Vedanta’s case, investors are tying the story to three visible demand channels:
- Electrification and grids: more transmission lines, more industrial electrification
- Renewables and EVs: more solar, more electric vehicles, more electronics
- Infrastructure build-out: roads, rail, construction, manufacturing capacity
Those channels pull on aluminium and zinc demand directly—while the “silver story” is increasingly being routed through Hindustan Zinc, which sits inside the Vedanta umbrella.
A Rediff Business analysis notes that Vedanta’s share-price surge is being supported by multiple triggers at once: the demerger appearing “on track,” a “strong non-ferrous commodity cycle,” and renewed investor attention on Hindustan Zinc amid a silver rally. Rediff
The same piece points to quarter-on-quarter gains in key metals (October–December) and outlines Vedanta’s capacity build-out, including new and debottlenecked aluminium capacity and alumina expansion plans that are tied to upstream resource security. Rediff
Hindustan Zinc, silver and the “group halo”
Hindustan Zinc’s rally has mattered because it feeds into Vedanta’s consolidated narrative. Rediff’s market report on Vedanta’s 52-week high notes that Hindustan Zinc also hit a 52-week high of ₹646 and was up about 43.5% in 2025 at that point. Rediff
Meanwhile, The Economic Times reported that silver prices surged to fresh lifetime highs, and Hindustan Zinc shares jumped to record levels—supporting the perception that Vedanta’s portfolio is leveraged not just to base metals and energy, but also to “energy transition” commodities used in high-growth applications. The Economic Times
What experts and brokerages are saying about value unlocking
The “demerger = rerating” thesis is not unique to Vedanta; it is a recurring pattern in Indian markets when conglomerates attempt to reduce complexity and improve transparency. What’s specific here is the scale and the commodity mix.
After the NCLT approval, market watchers quoted by Moneycontrol framed the change as classic value unlocking. Mehraboon J. Irani told CNBC-TV18: “There will certainly be value unlocking post the demerger.” Moneycontrol
Brokerages, too, have been modeling a potential rerating. The Economic Times reported that Nuvama Institutional Equities expected the demerger to be concluded in Q4 FY26, and argued it could unlock value by improving valuations of businesses such as aluminium, steel and power. The Economic Times
Deleveraging, dividends, and the “cost of power” narrative
Vedanta’s investor debate often revolves around three linked issues: debt, dividends, and cash flow stability.
Reuters reported that as of the end of September 2025, Vedanta’s consolidated borrowings stood at ₹259.38 billion (₹25,938 crore) and that the company aims to complete the split by March 31, 2026. Reuters
Rediff’s longer analysis adds more color to the balance-sheet and operating-cost angle, noting strong cash flow generation since FY22, an improving net-debt-to-operating-profit metric, and a management focus on lowering costs through a changing energy mix—including greater renewable usage over time. Rediff
That “power cost” lever is especially important for aluminium, which is energy-intensive. In other words, Vedanta’s energy-transition story is not only about selling metals into the transition, but also about using cleaner and potentially cheaper energy to produce them more competitively. Rediff
What to watch next: approvals, record date, and execution risk
Even with NCLT approval in hand, several milestones can still move the stock narrative:
- Government/regulatory clearances and scheme implementation steps before listing the resulting companies NSE India
- Record date announcement and details on how holdings will map into the new entities (a major “event” for shareholder positioning) NSE India
- Capex execution: commissioning timelines, cost overruns, and ramp-up performance remain central, especially given that a large portion of the capex is still unspent Upstox – Online Stock and Share Trading
- Commodity volatility: aluminium, zinc, oil and steel prices can swing rapidly with global growth, policy, and geopolitics—one reason Upstox flags cyclicality risk alongside the upside case Upstox – Online Stock and Share Trading
- Power demerger complexity: Vedanta itself notes that merchant power demerger approval is pending under a separate NCLT process NSE India
For investors, the simplest framing may be: the demerger creates a clearer map, but the value unlocked ultimately depends on how well each business performs on its own.
Vedanta’s rally in broader context: large-cap breakouts and a metals tailwind
Vedanta’s 52-week high is also part of a broader market pattern. On December 24, The Economic Times highlighted that even as the Sensex ended lower, several BSE large-cap stocks hit fresh 52-week highs—often interpreted as a sign of sustained bullish momentum in specific counters. Vedanta was listed among them, along with Hindustan Zinc, Shriram Finance, Vodafone Idea, Hindalco, Tata Capital and Eicher Motors. The Economic Times
In the wider tape, Reuters noted that Indian equities were consolidating near record highs amid thin year-end activity, while the metals sector had been supported by demand signals from China and currency/interest-rate expectations—macro factors that can also influence sentiment toward commodity-linked names like Vedanta. Reuters
Bottom line
Vedanta’s surge to a fresh 52-week high is not being driven by a single headline. It is the intersection of:
- a major corporate restructuring that the market expects could improve transparency and valuation,
- a ₹81,743 crore capex cycle aimed at expanding capacity in core businesses, and
- an improving narrative around energy-transition-linked commodities, with aluminium and zinc demand tied to infrastructure and electrification—and silver momentum shining through Hindustan Zinc.
The months ahead will test whether the demerger’s promise of “pure-play” clarity translates into smoother capital allocation, sharper operational performance, and ultimately, a rerating that can persist beyond the initial excitement. NSE India
