Vestas Wind Systems A/S has turned 2025 into a comeback story. The Danish wind-turbine giant is back to solid profitability, buying back its own shares, landing large offshore orders and attracting fresh analyst upgrades – all while its stock trades near all‑time highs.
As of 10 December 2025, Vestas’ primary Copenhagen‑listed share (CPH: VWS) closed around DKK 167–168, near the top of its 52‑week range of about DKK 81–169 and up roughly 60% over the past year. [1] The U.S. over‑the‑counter ADR (VWDRY) trades near $8.6. [2]
Below is a structured look at what’s driving the stock now, what analysts are forecasting, and the key risks that could decide whether today’s rally has further to go.
Vestas share price in December 2025: near record highs again
On 10 December 2025, StockAnalysis data showed Vestas closing at DKK 167.40, up 4.3% on the day, with a one‑year total return of 63.5%. The stock’s 52‑week range is DKK 81.14–169.15, and its trailing price/earnings ratio stands around 23.6x, with a forward P/E near 22x. [3]
Other key snapshot metrics:
- Market cap: about DKK 159 billion
- Trailing 12‑month revenue: DKK 139.6 billion
- Trailing net income: DKK 7.0 billion (EPS 6.79 DKK)
- Dividend: DKK 0.55 per share, a modest 0.34% yield [4]
Technically, the stock is also stretched: the RSI (relative strength index) is above 70, indicating an overbought condition in classical charting terms, which often coincides with short‑term consolidation or pullbacks even in strong longer‑term trends. [5]
In other words: Vestas is no longer the distressed wind stock of 2022–2023. It’s being priced like a high‑quality, cyclical growth name again.
Q3 2025: profitability returns and guidance tightens
The inflection point for sentiment in 2025 was Vestas’ third‑quarter 2025 results, published on 5 November. [6]
Key figures from the official interim report:
- Revenue: €5.339 billion, up 3.1% year‑on‑year
- EBIT margin before special items:7.8%, up from 4.5% a year earlier
- EBIT before special items: €416 million
- Adjusted free cash flow:€508 million, versus –€224 million in Q3 2024
- Turbine order intake: 4,606 MW, up 4% year‑on‑year
- Combined turbine + service backlog:€68.2 billion, up €4.8 billion year‑on‑year (turbine backlog €31.6b; service backlog €36.6b) [7]
The company also narrowed its full‑year 2025 guidance:
- Revenue expected between €18.5–19.5 billion (previously €18–20 billion)
- EBIT margin before special items now 5–6% (previously 4–7%) [8]
Independent coverage broadly confirmed the picture: Webull/S Simply Wall St summarised Q3 as a return to profitability, citing sales of €5.34 billion and net income of €302 million, with the stock up about 15% after the report and buyback announcement. [9]
This is a meaningful reset from the loss‑making quarters that plagued the sector in 2022–2023.
Buyback and fresh orders: capital returns meet growth pipeline
Share buyback: up to 1.8% of shares
Alongside Q3 results, Vestas announced a share buyback of up to DKK 1,120 million (≈€150 million), authorised at its April 2025 AGM. The programme runs from 6 November to 17 December 2025 and allows repurchases of up to 18 million shares, or 1.8% of the share capital. [10]
By 4 December, Vestas had already repurchased 4.97 million shares at an average price of about DKK 154, spending roughly DKK 765 million. [11]
At a time when capital is expensive and the industry has been capital‑hungry, a buyback is a strong signalling move: management is saying the balance sheet is now robust enough to both fund growth and return cash.
New orders: 660 MW offshore plus industrial decarbonisation projects
Vestas’ order flow has also picked up into Q4:
- On 1 December 2025, the company announced a 660 MW offshore wind order in the EMEA region. Details on the customer, location and commissioning timeline remain undisclosed, but the order is booked into Q4 2025 intake. [12]
- On 5 December 2025, Vestas secured a 10 MW on‑site wind project for Cementeria Costantinopoli in Italy’s Basilicata region, using three V117‑3.45 MW turbines and a 10‑year AOM 4000 service agreement. The project is expected to cover roughly one‑third of the cement plant’s electricity needs and is due for commissioning in Q4 2026. [13]
According to Vestas’ official order list, announced orders in Q4 2025 now include:
- four earlier offshore orders totalling 200 MW,
- a 347 MW onshore addition in early November,
- the 660 MW offshore EMEA deal, and
- the 10 MW Cementeria project,
for at least 1,217 MW of disclosed Q4 capacity, with additional undisclosed MW to be reported in the 2025 annual report. [14]
For investors tracking the backlog and revenue visibility, this supports the idea that 2025 is not a one‑off lucky quarter but part of a broader recovery in both onshore and offshore demand.
Analyst consensus: steady growth and margin expansion into 2027
Vestas publishes a detailed analyst consensus based on 21 sell‑side models, updated after Q3 results (cut‑off 18 November 2025). [15]
Headline numbers from that consensus:
- Revenue
- 2025: €18.98 billion (average)
- 2026: €20.89 billion
- 2027: €22.22 billion
That implies low‑ to mid‑single‑digit annual growth from 2025 to 2027. [16]
- EBIT before special items
- 2025: €1.07 billion
- 2026: €1.48 billion
- 2027: €1.80 billion
These figures point to EBIT margins rising from roughly 5–6% in 2025 to around 8% by 2027, as execution improves and earlier price increases flow through the backlog. [17]
- Free cash flow
- 2025: c. €821 million
- 2026: c. €970 million
- 2027: c. €1.24 billion [18]
- Order intake (MW)
- 2025: 15.3 GW
- 2026: 17.4 GW
- 2027: 18.4 GW, with offshore order intake rising steadily over the period. [19]
In short, the consensus view is that:
- Growth continues but isn’t explosive;
- Profitability is expected to normalise into high single‑digit EBIT margins;
- Cash generation improves enough to support both investment and capital returns.
Kepler Cheuvreux’s double upgrade: the bullish case in detail
The biggest incremental news on 10 December 2025 came from Kepler Cheuvreux, which issued a double upgrade on Vestas: from “Reduce” to “Buy”, while doubling its 12‑month target price from DKK 100 to DKK 200. [20]
Kepler’s argument, as summarised in its note and reported by Investing.com, can be boiled down to several points: [21]
- Onshore execution has outperformed.
Vestas’ onshore business delivered better‑than‑expected results in the second half of 2025, helped by a roughly 40% rise in turbine prices between 2021 and 2023 and U.S. manufacturing tax credits that are now flowing through margins. - Forecast upgrades into 2027.
Kepler raises its forecasts for 2027 onshore deliveries by 19% and expects onshore adjusted EBITA to be more than 50% higher than previously modelled. - Service risks are easing.
The brokerage sees improving fundamentals in the service division: lower lost‑production factors, moderating warranty accruals and better operations, which together reduce the risk of further accounting write‑downs in contract assets. - Offshore is high‑risk but not central to the valuation.
Kepler treats the V236 offshore platform — still loss‑making — as essentially value‑neutral in its base‑case valuation, recognising the operational risk but arguing that the stock already discounts it. - 2026 is “pivotal” but near‑term catalysts skew positive.
Multiple offshore contracts ramp in 2026, which heightens the risk of cost overruns. But the analysts see no obvious negative catalyst in the next 12 months, and actually expect estimate upgrades as onshore and service expectations look conservative. - Valuation: ~30% below intrinsic value.
On their numbers, Vestas trades at about 30% below intrinsic value based on 2027 EBITDA and EBIT multiples, with Kepler pencilling in a likely DKK 140–220 trading range over the coming year and targeting the upper end at DKK 200. [22]
Kepler also projects adjusted EBITA in 2026–2027 at 7% and 6% above consensus and sees net cash potentially rising toward €3 billion by 2027 on strong free cash flow and moderating capex. [23]
This is, essentially, the “re‑rating” thesis: if Vestas executes even slightly better than consensus on margins and cash flow, a premium multiple on 2027 earnings suddenly looks less aggressive.
Not everyone is bullish: mixed ratings and fair‑value estimates
While Kepler has swung bullish, other analysts and valuation models are more cautious.
MarketBeat: “Reduce” rating on the ADR
MarketBeat’s summary for Vestas’ U.S. ADR (VWDRY) shows a consensus rating of “Reduce” based on six analysts over the past year: 2 Sell, 3 Hold and 1 Buy, with no consensus price target published. [24]
That’s a stark contrast to Kepler’s upgraded “Buy” stance and underlines how polarising the stock remains after its big 2025 rally.
Morningstar: fairly valued to slightly overvalued
Morningstar’s fundamental coverage is more measured:
- After Q3 2025 results, its “Vestas Earnings: Strong Onshore Execution Supports Margin Expansion” note set a fair value estimate of DKK 145 per share. [25]
- Earlier, in September 2025, when German policy comments triggered a sharp sell‑off in renewables, Morningstar reaffirmed a DKK 135 fair value, suggesting the later Q3 report led them to raise that fair value to 145. [26]
With the stock now around DKK 167–168, that implies a 10–15% premium to Morningstar’s fair value, or modest overvaluation on their assumptions.
Simply Wall St: modest downside on DCF
Simply Wall St’s valuation work, summarised on Webull, models Vestas reaching roughly €23.1 billion in revenue and €1.3 billion in earnings by 2028, implying around 7.6% annual revenue growth from current levels. On those assumptions, they derive a fair value of about DKK 142 per share, which they say represents around 6% downside from the price at the time of their article in early November. [27]
They also note that community‑submitted fair‑value estimates span a wide range from about DKK 102 to DKK 173, underscoring just how sensitive the valuation is to margin and policy assumptions. [28]
Macro backdrop: German onshore growth, Polish factory twists and Trump’s wind policy
Vestas doesn’t operate in a vacuum. Its share price in 2025 has been whipsawed by policy news on both sides of the Atlantic.
Europe: Germany drives a rebound in onshore
On 2 December 2025, Reuters reported that Vestas will double production capacity at its onshore blade factory in Goleniow, Poland, adding a second line for blades for the V172‑7.2 MW turbine. The move will create more than 300 new jobs and is targeted primarily at the surging German onshore market, which installed 2.2 GW of onshore wind in the first half of 2025, up 67% year‑on‑year, with 5.1 GW expected for the full year. [29]
This expansion comes just weeks after Vestas shelved plans for what would have been its biggest Polish offshore turbine factory, citing lower‑than‑expected demand for offshore wind in Europe. [30]
Taken together, these moves show:
- Onshore Europe (especially Germany) is re‑accelerating, which is positive for Vestas’ core business.
- Offshore Europe remains much more volatile, with developers and suppliers still digesting cost inflation and contract structures that were negotiated in a different interest‑rate world.
United States: Trump‑era headwinds and a court‑driven tailwind
Across the Atlantic, U.S. politics have also mattered. Offshore wind developers and turbine makers, including Vestas, spent much of the year grappling with President Trump’s attempts to halt new offshore wind projects and tighten clean‑energy tax rules — efforts that had repeatedly knocked European renewables stocks. [31]
On 9 December 2025, however, U.S. District Judge Patti Saris ruled Trump’s ban on new wind projects illegal, prompting Orsted shares to jump as much as 4.4% and Vestas to rise as much as 3.7% in Copenhagen before paring back gains. [32]
Earlier in the year, Vestas had also rallied sharply — around 15% on the day, according to Financial Post coverage — when updated U.S. tax credit guidance turned out to be less punitive than feared. [33]
For investors, the key takeaway is that U.S. policy risk cuts both ways: headlines can deliver sharp drawdowns, but court rulings and clarified guidance can just as quickly unlock upside.
How 2025 changed the fundamental story
Strip away the political noise and 2025 still looks like a turning‑point year for Vestas:
- Margins have normalised upward
Q3 2025’s 7.8% EBIT margin before special items is a world away from the near‑breakeven or negative margins seen in the worst quarters of 2022–23, largely thanks to higher turbine pricing, easing supply‑chain costs and better onshore project execution. [34] - Backlog quality and size remain strong
A €68.2 billion combined backlog (turbine + service) provides multi‑year revenue visibility and a long tail of service earnings, which typically carry higher margins and lower capital intensity than turbine sales. [35] - Balance sheet is healthy
Strong free cash flow in Q3 and the decision to launch a €150 million buyback suggest a comfortable liquidity position and management confidence in future cash generation. [36] - The stock has re‑rated
At roughly 24x trailing earnings and 22x forward earnings, Vestas now trades on a growth‑stock multiple that assumes the company hits (or beats) the consensus path of rising margins and steady revenue expansion. [37]
Put simply, 2025 has closed the chapter of “can Vestas survive this?” and opened the chapter of “how much growth and margin expansion should we pay for?”
Key risks for Vestas shares in 2026 and beyond
Despite the strong year, the Vestas investment case is absolutely not risk‑free. The main fault lines investors argue about are:
- Offshore execution risk (V236 programme)
Kepler explicitly calls the offshore V236 platform “high‑risk and loss‑making” and assigns no value to it in its valuation. Any major cost overrun, delay or technical issue across the multiple offshore projects ramping in 2026 could hit earnings and sentiment hard. [38] - European policy volatility
Reuters’ report on Vestas shelving its largest planned Polish factory in October due to weaker‑than‑expected offshore demand shows how quickly policy‑driven demand projections can shift. [39] Morningstar has previously flagged German policy as a swing factor, noting that comments about a potential slowdown in renewables expansion temporarily knocked Vestas’ share price in September. [40] - Competition from lower‑cost manufacturers
Simply Wall St highlights increasing price competition from overseas turbine makers in Europe, which could pressure margins if European policymakers are slow to adopt industrial support measures similar to the U.S. Inflation Reduction Act. [41] - Valuation risk
With the stock near record highs and trading above several prominent fair‑value estimates (Morningstar’s DKK 145 and Simply Wall St’s roughly DKK 142), any disappointment on orders, margins or cash flow could trigger a sharp multiple‑compression. [42] - Macro and rates
Wind projects are capital‑intensive and sensitive to long‑term interest rates and financing costs. A renewed rise in yields or tighter credit conditions would make marginal projects harder to finance and could slow order intake, particularly in offshore segments.
So is Vestas stock a buy, hold or sell in December 2025?
From a high‑level, non‑personalised perspective:
- The bull case says Vestas is the leading pure‑play global wind OEM, with a massive service backlog, improving margins, a strengthening balance sheet, and secular tailwinds from decarbonisation. Under that view, Kepler’s DKK 200 target and talk of the shares trading 30% below intrinsic value make sense if 2026–27 margins come in above consensus and offshore losses remain contained. [43]
- The cautious case emphasises that the stock already prices in a lot of good news: the P/E in the low‑20s, the premium to Morningstar’s and Simply Wall St’s fair values, and the still‑uncertain economics of the V236 offshore platform. [44] From this angle, Vestas might be more of a “quality hold” or even a trim candidate for investors who bought earlier in the cycle.
Given those tensions, how an individual investor should act depends heavily on:
- their time horizon (multi‑year vs short‑term),
- their tolerance for policy and execution risk, and
- how much exposure they already have to renewable‑energy hardware.
What’s clear as of 10 December 2025 is that:
- Vestas has successfully executed a financial turnaround in 2025;
- The stock market has noticed, pushing the shares to levels where opinions diverge sharply;
- 2026, with its heavy offshore ramp‑up, is likely to be the next big truth‑serum year for the Vestas story.
References
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