CPH:VWS 10 December 2025

April 28, 2026, 9:21 PM EDT. The UAE's departure from OPEC and OPEC+ reduces the group's global oil production share from 47% to 42%, significantly increasing Saudi Arabia's control over output policies. This shift could weaken OPEC's cohesion, potentially encouraging other members to leave or deviate from quotas, heightening oil price volatility. Despite short-term constraints on UAE oil exports due to the Strait of Hormuz closure, a reopening could allow an additional 1 million barrels per day, boosting UAE GDP by an estimated 7%. The UAE's diversified economy and large foreign currency reserves position it to withstand lower oil prices better than other Gulf countries, which face higher fiscal break-even points. The changing dynamics may accelerate oil diversification efforts across Gulf economies.