Snapshot: VIX index on 5 December 2025
The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) — Wall Street’s best‑known “fear gauge” — is trading back in the mid‑teens today, signaling a notably calm backdrop for U.S. stocks.
- Spot level: Around the mid‑15s as of late Friday, with Cboe’s official trade data showing the VIX near 15.6, down about 1% from Thursday’s close of 15.78. [1]
- Day range: Major data providers show an intraday low near 15.55 and a high around 16.18, keeping the index firmly in a tight band. [2]
- 52‑week range: Roughly 12.7 to 60, meaning today’s reading sits close to the low end of the past year’s volatility spectrum. [3]
Different real‑time feeds have printed slightly different “last” prices (around 15.6–15.9), but they all agree on the key point: equity volatility is subdued and near multi‑month lows. [4]
Yesterday’s session (Thursday, December 4) already set the tone. Zacks/Nasdaq data show the VIX fell 1.9% to 15.78 as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed modestly higher on the back of strong Q3 earnings and very low weekly jobless claims. [5]
Quick refresher: what the VIX actually measures
The VIX index is calculated from S&P 500 (SPX) options prices and represents the market’s consensus expectation of 30‑day forward volatility in the U.S. equity market. Cboe describes it as a leading measure of near‑term volatility and a widely used barometer of investor sentiment and market risk. [6]
- Higher VIX → investors are paying up for protection; stress and uncertainty are elevated.
- Lower VIX → demand for hedging is low; markets are calm and often trending higher.
With the index back around 15–16, implied volatility is now well below the peaks seen during the sharp risk‑off episodes of October and November and closer to its long‑run average in the high‑teens. [7]
From panic to calm: how we got back to a 15–16 VIX
Today’s low‑volatility backdrop is striking given how turbulent the autumn was:
- In mid‑October, Reuters reported the VIX spiking near 23 intraday and touching levels above 22.9, the highest in about five months, as fears over renewed U.S.–China trade tensions roiled markets. [8]
- In late November, the VIX surged again, climbing above 28 on November 20 before easing, according to historical data from Investing.com. [9]
From that late‑November spike above 28 to today’s mid‑teens reading, the VIX has effectively halved in just over two weeks. Over the period from November 20 to December 5, the daily data show a steady grind lower: first through the low‑20s, then high‑teens, and finally down into the mid‑teens this week. [10]
A Fortune analysis published this morning underscores how quickly sentiment has flipped. It notes that the VIX has already fallen by double digits on a percentage basis in early December as the S&P 500 logged eight straight gains and moved to within half a percentage point of a new record high. [11]
What’s driving today’s low VIX?
1. Strong data and Fed‑cut expectations
Thursday’s U.S. jobless claims report showed initial claims dropping to 191,000, the lowest level since 2022, suggesting a still‑resilient labor market. [12]
At the same time, markets are convinced the Federal Reserve is about to start easing:
- The CME FedWatch tool is assigning roughly 90% odds to a rate cut at next week’s Fed meeting, according to Zacks/Nasdaq’s morning summary. [13]
Lower expected policy rates and resilient growth are a classic recipe for risk‑on positioning, allowing investors to comfortably reduce hedges and sell volatility.
2. A “wave of liquidity” narrative
A widely shared piece from Fortune frames the current environment as a “vast wave of incoming liquidity” heading toward markets:
- A likely December Fed rate cut.
- Ongoing reserve‑management T‑bill purchases by the Fed.
- Structural policies that could channel more household money into equities over the coming years. [14]
That combination has helped equities climb for eight straight sessions and, crucially, has encouraged investors to price in a calm, “holiday rally” regime. Fortune points out that major banks collectively expect U.S. stocks to rise again in 2026, reinforcing the idea that near‑term shocks are manageable. [15]
3. Mechanical positioning in volatility markets
More technical factors are also at work. An options‑driven analysis published this week on Investing.com highlights that:
- The VIX 1‑Day index (a very short‑term volatility gauge) has collapsed to around 10.5, implying there is not much “excess” volatility left to sell.
- VIX options positioning appears to make the index “sticky” around 16 — below that, option deltas flatten, which reduces the hedging flows that typically push the VIX around. [16]
In simple terms, the options market itself may be pinning the VIX near current levels, dampening moves in either direction and helping keep volatility compressed even as macro headlines remain noisy.
How calm is “calm”? Comparing VIX today with recent history
Looking at the last month of daily data, several things stand out: [17]
- Peak fear: 28.27 on November 20, as markets digested tighter financial conditions and geopolitical worries.
- Post‑shock drift lower: VIX fell back to the mid‑teens by early December, with December 1 closing at 17.24, December 3 at 16.59, and December 4 at 15.78.
- Today, December 5: The index is now trading around 15½–16, near its lowest readings since late September. MarketWatch notes that today’s intraday low around 15.55 is the lowest since September 26, when the index briefly dipped near 15.3. [18]
On a longer horizon, the St. Louis Fed’s VIX series shows that the daily close has averaged near the high‑teens to low‑20s over the last year, so today’s mid‑teens level is slightly below that typical range. [19]
The bottom line:
Current readings suggest “low but not extreme” complacency — calmer than the average of recent years, but still well above the ultra‑low, sub‑12 VIX prints seen in past cycles.
VIX futures and model‑based forecasts: what the curve is saying
VIX futures term structure
While the spot VIX sits around 15–16, the VIX futures curve is modestly higher further out:
- MarketWatch data on December VIX futures show prices around 17–18 for the December 2025 contract and just under 20 for January 2026. [20]
- Barchart’s quote for S&P 500 VIX December ’25 futures similarly shows that contract trading in the high‑17s, up slightly over the past month but still far below the late‑November highs near 23–24. [21]
This slight upward slope — a mild contango — is typical of calm markets. It tells us traders expect some re‑normalization of volatility toward the high‑teens over time, but no persistent crisis‑level stress.
AI‑driven VIX price projections
One of the more eye‑catching pieces of VIX research today comes from Meyka, an AI‑based analytics site that publishes purely model‑driven forecasts for major indices: [22]
- Current VIX price used by the model: about 15.8.
- 1‑month forecast:24.21, implying a potential jump of more than 50% if volatility re‑prices higher.
- 1‑year forecast (2026): around 18.0, a roughly 14% increase from current levels.
- 5‑year forecast (2030): near 25.7, and
- 7‑year forecast: about 32.2, more than double today’s reading.
Meyka characterizes both the short‑ and long‑term outlook for the VIX as “bullish”, but explicitly stresses these are statistical scenarios, not trading advice. [23]
Taken together with the futures curve, the message is consistent:
- Near term: markets are pricing a continuation of relatively low volatility.
- Over longer horizons: models and futures both assume that volatility will mean‑revert upward, closer to historical averages.
Cross‑asset perspective: equities calm, crypto volatile
Volatility is not low everywhere. A CoinDesk analysis earlier this week noted that the gap between Bitcoin volatility and VIX‑style equity volatility has widened again, with crypto volatility “breaking out” while the VIX drifts lower. [24]
That divergence has two implications:
- Risk is being expressed elsewhere. Some traders may be shifting speculative activity into Bitcoin and other riskier assets while treating large‑cap U.S. equities as a relative safe harbor.
- Pair‑trade ideas are re‑emerging. Strategists have floated the idea of long‑crypto / short‑equity‑volatility pair trades when the spread between the two becomes especially wide — though these are complex, high‑risk strategies, not suitable for most investors. [25]
For mainstream portfolios, the takeaway is simpler: don’t mistake a quiet VIX for a universally quiet market. Volatility has merely shifted between asset classes.
What a mid‑teens VIX means for stock investors right now
Positive signals
A VIX around 15–16 usually lines up with:
- Solid equity performance: The S&P 500 is within a fraction of a percent of a new record high, having risen for eight sessions in a row. [26]
- Tight credit spreads and constructive risk sentiment as investors feel less urgency to pay for portfolio insurance.
Zacks/Nasdaq’s recap of Thursday’s session notes that even as trading volume dipped below its 20‑day average, the S&P 500 still notched dozens of new 52‑week highs — classic late‑year “grind higher” behavior that tends to keep the VIX suppressed. [27]
Warning signs
Several strategists, however, caution against reading a calm VIX as “all clear”:
- The Investing.com liquidity analysis argues that tightening liquidity and narrowing market breadth make the S&P 500 more vulnerable to pullbacks, even if the VIX is pinned for now. [28]
- The same piece notes that with the VIX 1‑Day index already very low, there may be more room for volatility to rise than to fall as we head into a week packed with data and the Fed meeting. [29]
In other words, the risk/reward of selling volatility aggressively from here is less attractive than it was a few weeks ago when the VIX was in the 20s.
Near‑term catalysts that could jolt the VIX
Volatility is famously mean‑reverting, and the calendar over the next couple of weeks gives it several opportunities to wake up:
- Federal Reserve meeting next week
- Markets are pricing a near‑certain rate cut. Any deviation — a smaller move, different guidance, or hawkish tone — could trigger a quick spike in the VIX as traders rush to re‑price risk. [30]
- Inflation and growth data
- Updated readings on PCE inflation, consumer spending, and sentiment are all due in the coming days. A negative surprise on inflation or a sudden deterioration in spending could challenge the “soft‑landing with cuts” narrative and lift volatility. [31]
- Year‑end positioning and options expiry
- December is packed with index rebalancings and options expirations, including in VIX futures and options themselves. As the options market rolls exposure into 2026, hedging flows can briefly amplify moves in the index both up and down. [32]
None of these events guarantees a volatility shock, but they are precisely the kinds of catalysts that have historically turned a quiet mid‑teens VIX into something much louder.
Key takeaways
- Today, December 5, 2025, the VIX index is sitting around the mid‑15s, close to its lowest levels since late September and far below the panic peaks above 28 seen in November. [33]
- A combination of low jobless claims, strong earnings, and growing confidence in imminent Fed rate cuts has encouraged investors to cut hedges and embrace risk, pressing implied volatility lower. [34]
- VIX futures and AI‑driven models both point to higher volatility over longer horizons, reflecting the tendency of volatility to mean‑revert toward the high‑teens or low‑20s. [35]
- Cross‑asset signals — notably surging crypto volatility relative to the VIX — suggest that risk has not disappeared; it has simply shifted into other corners of the market. [36]
- For investors and traders, the current environment is one of apparent calm with underlying tension: conditions are favorable for stocks in the very short term, but the low level of the VIX leaves little margin for error if the macro story changes.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational and news purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or a solicitation to buy or sell any security or derivative. Volatility trading is complex and can involve substantial risk, including the loss of principal. Always do your own research and consider consulting a qualified financial adviser before making investment decisions.
References
1. www.cboe.com, 2. www.investing.com, 3. www.cboe.com, 4. www.cboe.com, 5. www.nasdaq.com, 6. www.cboe.com, 7. www.investing.com, 8. www.reuters.com, 9. www.investing.com, 10. www.investing.com, 11. www.inkl.com, 12. www.nasdaq.com, 13. www.nasdaq.com, 14. www.inkl.com, 15. www.inkl.com, 16. www.investing.com, 17. www.investing.com, 18. www.marketwatch.com, 19. fred.stlouisfed.org, 20. www.marketwatch.com, 21. www.barchart.com, 22. meyka.com, 23. meyka.com, 24. www.coindesk.com, 25. www.coindesk.com, 26. www.inkl.com, 27. www.nasdaq.com, 28. www.investing.com, 29. www.investing.com, 30. www.nasdaq.com, 31. www.nasdaq.com, 32. www.cboe.com, 33. www.cboe.com, 34. www.nasdaq.com, 35. meyka.com, 36. www.coindesk.com
